1. Channel Migration Hazard Maps for eastern Jefferson County Rivers 2004 Susan Perkins Perkins Geosciences --- Watershed Professionals Network, LLC

2. Intent of Hazard Maps FEMA Flood Insurance maps have limited application in planning areas safe for development CMZ delineations help reduce risks to human communities by guiding development away from areas at risk of channel erosion Channel migration is not limited to areas below 100- year flood elevation Channel migration may not be limited to HMZ CMZ delineation allows planners and managers to weigh the relative risks of human development with habitat preservation over time Slide courtesy of Wash. Dept. of Ecology

3. Channel Migration Hazard Maps CMZs were reclassified into: Disconnected Migration Areas (DMA) High hazard Moderate hazard Low hazard

4. Disconnected Migration Areas substantial, continuous bank protection structure OR demonstrated commitment and ability of government agencies to prevent future channel migration consulted with Jefferson County Public Works Dept. and Natural Resources Division DMAs may still be subject to flooding

5. Deltas from Rosgen (1996)

6. Dosewallips River

7. Dosewallips River Brinnon levee – Reach B

8. Duckabush River

9. Duckabush River failed riprap Reach B

10. Big Quilcene River

11. Big Quilcene right bank levee

12. Little Quilcene River

13. Hazard Delineation Hazard Level HIGH near river, or low former channel MODERATE LOWfarther from river, surface unchannelized Approx. Time Frame < 50 years 50-100 years > 100 years

14. Hazard Delineation Geomorphic channel type Type of channel migration lateral avulsions Sediment regime transport deposition Constraints on channel migration

15. Geomorphic Channel Types Delta/alluvial fan Wandering river Straight and entrenched currently, but formerly meandering Straight and narrow (always)

16. Delta/alluvial fan reaches Distributary channels Avulsions Depositional Major constraints on channel migration Cross-floodplain roads Extensive levees or revetments Reaches Little Quilcene A Big Quilcene A Duckabush A Duckabush B Dosewallips A Dosewallips B

17. Delta/alluvial fan hazard assignment High Hazard Zone HCMZ (+AHZ +EHA where not blocked by constraints) Moderate Hazard Zone Remainder of AHZ and EHA

18. Wandering river reaches Meandering with bend cutoffs and avulsions Straight at times following avulsions Depositional, or mixed transport and deposition Low, active floodplain No or few constraints on channel migration Reaches Little Quilcene B Little Quilcene D Big Quilcene B Big Quilcene E Duckabush C Dosewallips D Dosewallips G

19. Wandering river avulsion example -- Duckabush old channel new channel

20. side channel and island -- Duckabush

21. Wandering River hazard assignment High Hazard Zone HCMZ +AHZ +1/2 of EHA width Moderate Hazard Zone Remainder of EHA

22. Straight and Entrenched reaches: CMZ now narrower than historic Minor to no bend growth, or bends occur within a narrower zone than HMZ Sediment transport, or sediment supply where bed has degraded Was channelized in past Entrenched Discontinuous revetments constrain channel migration Reaches Big Quilcene C Big Quilcene D

23. Straight and Entrenched example – Big Quilcene D

24. Straight and Entrenched example – Big Quilcene C

25. Straight and Entrenched hazard assignment High Hazard Zone ½ to 2 EHA widths from the year 2000 active channel edge Moderate Hazard Zone Remainder of EHA

26. C D B E Big Quilcene

27. Straight and Narrow reaches Minor to no bank erosion, no bend growth Few bends, held in place by erosion-resistant geology Sediment is transported through reach No man-made constraints on channel migration Bedrock or glacial bluffs constrain channel Reaches Little Quilcene C Big Quilcene F Dosewallips C Dosewallips E Dosewallips F

28. Straight and Narrow hazard assignment High Hazard Zone HCMZ Moderate Hazard Zone AHZ + EHA

29. Dosewallips E D

30. Limitations of CMZ Maps Maps show relative risk, not a precise prediction of time or location Not all High and Moderate hazard areas will be occupied in next 100 yrs Though unlikely, some Low hazard areas could be occupied Maps do not depict flood risk Maps do not depict landslide risk If erosion-resistant bank materials are present, risk would be lower Transitional zones at downstream ends of straight reaches should be reassessed every 10 years.

31. Confidence Level Generally high 63+ years of historical data Excellent LIDAR maps Field work Migration distance >> map error Lower in upstream ends No LIDAR migration distance < map error

33. Lower Hoh River historic channels

34. Lower Hoh River CMZ hazard map

35. Hoh River 2004