1. The Use and Impact of FTA Attila Havas and Ron Johnston Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, and Australian Centre for Innovation Third International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008

2. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Current state of foresight A climate of urgency to address the future Increased adoption at many levels and in many forms Varied roles: an expert-based policy informing tool; an integral part of policy processes, operating by forward looking strategic support to informing and co- ordinating functions; a pacemaker through capacity building for policy intelligence a tool for impact assessment

3. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Key Challenges for the FTA Community 1.How is the practice of FTA contributing to the effective addressing of the major challenges we face in the future? 2.If it is not sufficiently being employed, what shortcomings can be identified? 3.What steps can be taken to ensure a greater and more effective application of FTA, with more visible impacts?

4. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Six function of foresight for policy-making – FTA 2006 Informing policy Facilitating policy implementation Embedding participation in policy-making Supporting policy definition Reconfiguring the policy system A symbolic function

5. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA Experts tend to use somewhat theoretical/ abstract arguments to convince decision- makers that: (i) a variety of issues needs to be tackled, and (ii) an FTA-based approach is the most appropriate means for addressing these issues

6. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA (1)FTA can improve decision-making processes by emphasising the possibility of alternative futures, and the opportunity of shaping a prefred future (2)FTA can address the complexities arising from the interaction of socio-economic and technological drivers by bringing together different communities with complementary knowledge and experience (3)FTA process can reduce uncertainty because participants can align their endeavours once they achieve a shared vision (4)FTA processes help in identifying and achieving attitudinal/ behavioural changes, and encourage creative thinking

7. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Arguments used by FTA experts to promote the adoption of FTA (5)FTA processes contribute to strengthening existing networks and clusters and building new ones (6)FTA can assist policy-makers by providing a sound understanding of the underlying causes and mechanisms of technological change (7)FTA dialogues with a wide range of stakeholders lead to a more transparent decision-making process, and hence offer a way to obtain public support (8)FTA can assist policy-makers faced with intensifying social concerns about new technologies

8. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA What Users Want from FTA greater certainty in decision-making a feasible (‘actionable’) plan a tool that aligns with organisational decision- making processes and timeframes a means to challenge and catalyse staff and stakeholders Varies by countries/ departments/ individuals!

9. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Differentiating what Users Want from FTA Governments of industrialised countries largely regard FTA as one of many tools that can be brought to bear on particular issues. Practical delivery of outcomes is the most important criterion for adoption Governments of industrialising countries with less well-established market and governance systems may view a major national FTA project as a central component of their economic development strategies Government (national, regional, local) departments and agencies of industrialised countries are essentially pragmatic about the use of FTA within the world of bureaucratic politics, using it to deliver a desired outcome Large global company’s preference for FTA is in the form of enhanced strategic planning, preferably embedded in high performance software systems Innovation-intensive SMEs generally express impatience with any tool that diverts them from their core business, while at the same time regularly applying improvised FTA perspectives

10. [Paper title] The Use and Impact of FTA Conclusions