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HARTFORD COUNTY COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET NOVEMBER 2009 Veterans Day Presented by: Andrews & Galvin Appraisal Services, LLC 16 Spring Lane, Farmington, CT john@agvalues.com 860-677-5522
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REAL ESTATE MARKET PRESENTATION OVEVIEW Hartford County – Fall 2009 What Just Happened – Where are we Now? Market Real Estate Segments Review of Trends
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Hartford County Map
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Last Years Theme - What Segment of the Coaster Do You Operate In?
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IM STICKING WITH THE COASTERS Reality Is All Hartford Market Segments Are Heading in the Same Direction Fall 2009
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For Some It Seem More Like This !
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So Where Are We Now?
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Last Year Question - Feeling the Trend? This Year – There is No Question We are Feeling It!
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Total Number of Sales Tracked by Conn-comps November 1989 to 2009
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Results of Phone Surveys Last Year – Uncertainty over Financial Markets and Some Over President Elect Changes in Financial Markets We Understand - Liquidity Since Presidential Elect – External Changes Causing Uncertainty Most Do Not Understand – Automotive, Unemployment, Housing, Health Care, War … Too Many Changes Too Fast Consequently – Hartford Commercial Real Estate Market is Nearly On Hold – lack of liquidity - Resulting in Large Disconnect Between Market Participants
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So What Are the Uncertainties? Stimulus Package-Residual Impact of Clunkers Automobile Market Here in Hartford – More Vacant Space Obsolete Space – Vacant Auto dealerships - Less Used Car Inventory–low end? Les Cars to Repair – Less Demand for Automotive Garages Less Demand For Auto Parts – Increase in Vacant Retail Space Starting to See Foreclosures in This market segment - 1099 Defense – Middle East UTC – Renewed Headquarters Lease in Gold Building – but closing some operations Several Manufactures Pulling Back Work from Smaller Job Shops
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Housing Stimulus The $8,000 Credit – Did it Just Shift Remaining Demand Up? Did it Increase home furnishing, appliance, etc. spending ? Did it Consume Remaining Supply Will the $6,500 cause many to sell and then rent – retired focusing on future expenses? New $8,000 credit to have same impact on housing prices as it did on automotive pricing – at least locally – Just Shift Prices Up? Did Help New Residential Projects Total Single-Family Sales Simsbury, Glastonbury, Farmington, Avon 20052006200720082009 1,6931,3951,4271,152751
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Health Care Reform Creates Uncertainty in the Hartford Real Estate Market Will it Change Future Demand for Office Space by Insurance Users? Employment Base – Location Quotient – Will it Change? What About B and C Office Near Hospitals and Suburbs? Retail Base – Will it Decline? Municipalities–Tax Base Change? Medical Space Demands Change? Hospitals Repositioning
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So – Market is Nearly Stagnant – definitely Slowed Down Lets Look at some Sales Activity Starting with Industrial, Office, Apartments & Retail Review of Lender Survey & Positive Trends
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Typical Industrial Sales Activity 2009 51 Old Windsor Rd, Bloomfield, CT 2,520 SF, Built 1991, 0.34 acres -- Private Sale / Owner Occupied -- 70% L/V @ 6.98% Fixed 10 yrs Sold June 2009 for $250,000 or $99.21/SF Rent Payment - $1,500 Monthly Debt Service – Less than Rent (Previous sale 2005 for $243,000) Total Industrial Sales 2009: 34 (-60%) Average Price / SF: $37.03 (-5.6% avg) Average Size / Sale: 26,468 SF Trends: Users Consolidating Back Total Industrial Sales 2008: 87 Average Price / SF: $39.23 Average Size / Sale: 15,873 SF
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Industrial Survey Results CBRE – Market Overview 3rd Qtr 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate 12.55% 1st Qtr – Jumped 13.9% 3 rd Qtr -- (8% in the West / 17% in the North) Industrial Rental Rates $4.22 to $5.16 with Avg @ $4.81/SF NNN -- (Down 4% or $0.20/SF on Average – Tenants have Control) Absorption – Negative 946,951 SF YTD -- (However - 300,000 SF New Constriction-Tire Rack in Windsor) Cushman & Wakefield – Market Beat 2 nd Qtr 2009 Overall Vacancy Rate 12.1%, up from 10.2% (1,395 Buildings Surveyed) Absorption – negative 1,230,681 +/- SF Rental Rates - $4.37/SF to $4.70/SF, NNN – declining Jump in Vacancy due to a Couple of Large Users Closing – 3,000 jobs in Enfield lost
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Apartment Trends Year No of Sale Avg Sale Price 1999 177 $ 17,349.01 2000 151 $ 19,802.58 2001 173 $ 22,291.40 2002 225 $ 26,131.49 2003 236 $ 32,324.90 2004 281 $ 38,811.40 2005 331 $ 48,018.02 2006 269 $ 54,823.46 2007 185 $ 56,063.65 2008 86 $ 55,384.58 2009 21 $ 35,537.00
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Apartment Trends Marcus & Millichap 3rd Qtr 2009 2007: 3,263 Units Sold For $240,789,000 or $73,794/Unit 2008: 1,500 Units Sold For $128,196,000 or $85,464/Unit (perception unemployment would increase demand for rental units as single-families were foreclosed) 2009: 1,226 Units Sold For $87,630,375 or $71,477/Unit Total Decline: 3% To date Reporting 2.9% decline in asking rents and 1.3% increase in vacancy
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Recent Apartment Sales Hartford Small Apartments Vacancy 15% to 30% Rents Declining – Tenants Consolidating Short Sales Common Capitalization Rates Increasing from Below 10% up to 12% and higher pending occupancy and condition – Job Loss having an impact Sale & Re-Sales 24 Unit Apartment Property Sold March 2007 For $50,833/Unit Resold October 2009 for $45,000/Unit 11.5% Decline Over 30 Month Period Equates to 0.38% per Month
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Hartford County Office Market One Large Office Building Sale 2009 The Exchange – 270 Farmington Av Farmington – Sold Sept 2009 $14,250,000 or $56.92/SF 260,000 SF on 15 Acres 80% Occupancy / 10.53% OAR (Previously Sold Dec 1997 for $42.83/SF - 2.7% Increase in Value Per Year) Typical Office Building Sale 1 Old Mill Lane, Simsbury Sold Jan 09 $542,000 - $149.12/SF – Owner Occupied 3,856 SF on 0.67 Acres Vacancy: 19.6% - Avg Rent $19.14/SF Leasing Activity: Several Large Leases Absorption: – Neg. 9,978 per CBRE - Neg. 88,975 SF - Cushman & Wakefield
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Hartford County Retail Market Few Large Retail Sales 825-875 Queen St, Southington Sold August 2009 for $16,500,000 171,989 SF built 1969 on 17.6 Acres 97% Occupied / 10.45% OAR All Cash Deal – Bob’s Discount, Fashion Bug, Outback, Ruby Tuesday, Radio Shack, TJ Maxx, Bed, Bath & Beyond, Golden Nails, plus others Couple Smaller Retail Sales 7 Mill Pond Drive, Granby sold June 2009 $2,000,000 or $181.52/SF – Built 2004 11,018 SF Building on 1.89 Acres Previous sale May 2005 for $170.45/SF 2009 OER: 9.75% 2005 OER: 8.25%
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What Are Lenders Doing? Hartford County Market – Fall 2009 Tighter Terms Becoming Accepted As Norm Loan-To-Value Ratios 65% - 75%- Only One Stated 80% Results in Higher Debt Service Coverage Ratios – 1.25x and up – preferably 1.3x 1.35x – Some over 1.4x Points – ½ to a 1.5 points or more Rates – Spreads all increased and tied to FHLBB 5 yr mostly – 5 year fixed – fewer pre-payment clauses Securing Triangle between Lenders-Appraisers-Ordering Function Recourse is now the Norm Overall Cash Analysis on Borrower – Slowing Approval Process Why – less competition – Lack of Non-regulated Funding Conduit Market – Restructuring – CMBS? Small Markets – Short Sales – Work it out Unlike Early 1990’s – There are Fewer Banks to Take Property Back Regulations – OK to have Performing Loans With LTV of 100% +
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What is Different Between 1991-1992 and 2009-2010 Regulators Perspective – Letting Lenders Create Work Out situations Instead of Foreclosing - (May be the one Factor the Downturn is Short- lived on Commercial Side) Fewer Banks – Less Speculative Lending Businesses are More Global Oriented due to Internet – Communications – Acceptance Low Inventory of Property – Less Speculative Building Back to More Sensible Investor Expectations – (more weight on return over longer holding period as opposed to increasing rents and then a quick resale)
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Thank you …& Think Positive Andrews & Galvin Appraisal Services, LLC 16 Spring Lane, Farmington, CT john@agvalues.com 860-677-5522
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