1. Why is the past important? Richard Hoffman, Moderator Carl Safina, Plenary Paul Dayton Michael Orbach Robert Paine Alexander Stille Rapporteurs: Loren McClenachan (SIO), Danny Vickers (UCSD)

2. Why do we need the past & to what extent can we use historic data to inform the future? To predict the future To design the future To know possibilities To provide connections to natural world in an ahistorical society

3. Can we use the past to predict the future? Historic data help us recognize ecological patterns & constants But can’t predict the future Past does not repeat & systems are dynamic “Nothing endures but change” Modern change may be unlike anything we’ve see in the past “We can’t see in the past anything like is what happening now.”

4. Can we use the past to design the future? “ Bending time’s arrow backward” Historical data can provide restoration & conservation targets But: Incomplete knowledge of the past, deep time can prove misleading Changing dynamics in environment (e.g., reduction in sea ice) and species interactions makes it impossible to get back to past state Unintended consequences Designing the future is a social process; Identifying a desirable number and proportion of animals in the system is value based exercise

5. We can use the past to know possibilities Model the dynamics of historic ecosystems and understand processes operating in the past To better safeguard future options Keep all the branches on the tree of life

6. To provide connections to the natural world in rapidly changing society Historical ecologists taking the place of elders? Telling stories that connect us to our past Preventing the disintegration of memory

7. Clear that the past is important for ecology, but interaction is complex Historical Use Social Values Legal/Management Structure Present Ecological System

8. What can historical data tell us? PAST: Reveals components of past systems Gives clues to how past ecosystems worked PRESENT: Understand what we have now, what processes and events have brought us to this state Allow a more accurate evaluation of the status of populations and equip managers with tools to affect change FUTURE: Helps us recognize patterns & constants Catch disaster before it hits

9. What do we do with this information? HOW can past inform the future? “We know that there was a lot more stuff and it was better, so the answer is to kill less stuff and things will be better again” Incorporating people into the equation of ecology*** As a disturbance, but also as a selective force Understanding what motivated human actions in the past

10. Is the past fundamentally different from the present and the future? Maybe, but certain elements remain constant The farther back we go, the less clear the connections Can use history to recognize patterns and constants

11. Challenge of historical marine ecology is to stay afloat as a two headed monster Ecology: wants concrete predictive models History: wants to focus on process and context Is possible to do both; need training in both ways of thinking