1. USE OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS IN TOURISM
Prof Tadeja Jere Jakulin
University of Primorska
Faculty of Tourism Studies - TURISTICA
Portorose, Slovenia
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

2. Introduction Tourism as a complex system
Demands for fast and integrated decisions and guest satisfaction as service users and tourism organisations
System dynamics as a method for modelling
Critical analysis and methodology for model validation.
Dynamic models of tourism system in a frame of SD
Conclusions
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

3. Objectives
Generality of methodologies differentiation for complex systems’ description in a frame of SD
Context dependent modelling methodology
Development of tourism models following SD in a frame of system approach
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

4. General model of tourism oriented system
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

5. Simulation methodology determination with participants’ involvement
Participants in decision making
Tourism Business
System
Simulation Model in Tourism
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

6. (structure and behaviour
The principle scheme of simulation methodology for decision-making support
Expert Group
SD Model
(structure and behaviour
Results
Structure and Parameters
Multicriteria
Evaluation
Function
Setting the Model
Evaluation of Results
Model validation
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

7. National tourism strategy
Tourism Region
Tourism areas
Managing primary and secondary tourism offer
Quality of tourists' experiences
Tourism Policy
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

8. Causal loop diagram of national tourism market
National
tourism
market
Events and programmes
Infrastructure
Local
Environmental
attraction
Number of
tourists
Animation
preservation + -
Tourism
product
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

9. CLD of global tourism market
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

10. Quantitative simulation model in a frame of Forrester’s SD
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

11. From below presented, we can claim for:
Conclusions
From below presented, we can claim for:
System dynamics modelling over more traditional statistical correlation modelling;
The graphical interface makes apparent the relationships between key variables;
Qualitative data, which is important in the decision making, can be readily incorporated into the model;
The model readily integrates with database type pavement management systems, significantly enhancing their potential for scenario analysis;
The causal-loop diagrams, which were developed in order to optimise the decision making process;
The user to have confidence in identifying “good plausible settings” of the model parameters, from which subsequent “what-if” analysis can proceed.
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism

12. Thank you for your attention..
Use of System Dynamics and Modelling in Tourism