1. Worst Case Scenario Local Emergency Management for Black Swan Events
Phil Miskovic

2. Councilman for the Town of Crewe
Emergency Planner, DBHDS
Former Policy Analyst, Office of the Secretary of Public Safety
Summer of “Earth, Wind, and Fire”
Sandy Hook
PhD Student
Disclaimer: Context matters

3. Introduce concept and problems
Complexities and multiple parts of emergency management
Discussion
will:
Introduce the concept and the problem
Provide a 30,000 ft view of the complexities of the multiple parts of event management in general
Open the floor for discussion

4. All disasters are local Limited resources Mandates Efficiency
Vulnerability
How many of you live in localities with unlimited resources?
For those of us with limited resources, we need to determine how to equitable and responsibly distribute those within our localities
Several factors come into play when we distribute limited resources
No choice: federal and state mandates, debt service, keeping the lights on
Efficiency: where am I going to get the biggest bang for my taxpayer’s buck?
Vulnerability: defined as “the quality or state of being exposed to the possibility of being attacked or harmed.”
How do I mitigate against vulnerability, how do I make my locality exposed to harm?

5. Vulnerability Low Probability High Probability Low impact High impact
Manager taking a sick day
Rain
High impact
Black Swan event
Imminent threat (hurricane, winter weather)
We start by looking at how vulnerability is measured.
2 x 2 chart
One way to look at vulnerability is probability relative to impact
Low probability/low impact events, your manager takes a sick day. High probability/low impact, is a rainy day. You might have some disgruntled employees driving in, but life goes on with minimal impact. You probably won’t allot too many extra resources for dealing with those issues.
High probability/high impact: imminent threat, like a hurricane or a snowstorm. You’re going to want to set aside funding for road clearing or divert emergency funds to prepare for and respond to those events. T
The question before us today is the Low probability/high impact event, or the Black Swan event.

6. Black Swan Event
A Black Swan event is something that, in all likelihood, we will never have to deal with. . .until we do. There’s degrees of separation that pr. . .
For me, at 13 a tragedy like Columbine never occurred. Even watching the events unfold on TV that afternoon, I wasn’t able to fully comprehend an event thousands of miles away
That changed eight years later when I was an undergrad, calling my friends at Virginia Tech to see if they were OK. But even then, my perspective was that of an observer.
A few years later, immediately after Sandy Hook Governor McDonnell formed the Taskforce on School and Campus Safety to recommend legislative changes for preventing a similar tragedy here. I served as the lead staff member of that taskforce, but my role was to serve as a resource to the people making recommendations to the legislature
Fast forward another several years and we have the Virginia Beach shooting. As an elected official for my community, I’m left with the same questions many of you have: what can I do to protect my citizens? My employees?

7. Black Swan Events Unforeseeable Not likely to happen
Not 100% preventable
Unfortunately, the nature of a Black Swan event is that they are events that no reasonable person could have foreseen
We can debate what went right and what went wrong in response
We can take legislative action after-the-fact to address oversights
But no policy will 100% prevent an event
It will probably never impact us
But we can’t predict them

8. Paradox of Leadership Does not absolve us of our responsibilities
Distribute resources
Feeling of safety
Which brings me to one of the paradoxes of leadership:
The fact that a Black Swan event is neither predictable nor preventable does not absolve us of our responsibilities to our community
Each of you has the responsibility to determine how to distribute resources
Each of you must lead in a way that gives your citizens and employees a feeling or perception of safety where safety is not possible
The silver lining with Black Swan events is that we’re not flying blind. We can view the mechanics of low probability/high impact events in much of the same way as high probability/high impact events, using principles and concepts of emergency management to assess and analyze the situation and how to begin providing that perception of safety.

9. Environment Processes Preparedness People Policy Perception of Safety
Communication
Communication
Policy
People
I use this image that one scholar refers to as a bedraggled daisy. It’s really a Venn diagram on steroids. . .to illustrate the inter-connected components of “safety” or “feeling of safety.”
Above the line you have preparedness broken subcomponents:
Environment:
Do you do regular safety assessments of your buildings?
Do you have adequate cameras and lighting?
Do all of your employees have identification?
Is access limited, or can any employee access any part of your buildings 24/7?
People
Are your staff trained in safety?
Do you have drills and exercises?
Do you have a threat assessment team?
Do you have regular messaging?
Processes
Have you evaluated the processes for terminating an employee?
Updating your plans?
Training and exercises?
Policies
What policies can your locality put in place to ensure a greater perception of safety?
If you use a badge system, do you have a knox box or some other way for emergency personnel to access your buildings in an emergency?
Are you prepared to handle the needs of victim, survivors, and others vicariously impacted by an event?
What about first responders?
Do you have continuity of governance plan in case a building is not accessible for a period of time after an event?
What mount of resources or funding are you ready to dedicate to prevention?
Response/Recovery
Environment
Processes

10. Emergency Management Network Plans Training Resources
Ensuring you, your leaders, and your local emergency manager recognize these concepts is critical to providing a perception of safety within your community
Emergency management is a network, and the strength of networks is measured by relationships. So ensuring you, your leaders, and your local emergency managers have solid relationships with stakeholders and partners is equally critical. Does your local EM know who your CSB point of contact is? Do they meet regularly with first responders? Do they have positive relationships with everyone involved in response and recovery?
Is your locality prepared? You probably have some sort of emergency operations plan. You might even have a continuity of governance plan. But are they exercised? Are staff trained? Do you communicate regularly with citizens so they know what to do in the vent of a disaster?

11. Understand the complexity of the situation and preparing for high probability/high impact events can make citizens and staff feel safe. It can also positively impact response. And for most of us in this room, that should be enough.
But we’re still left with the question of the Black Swan event. Given that no policy or set of policies can prevent the unknown; and given limited resources; how do we lead?
With that, I’ll open the floor for discussion amongst the group. I have several questions on this slide, but they are just meant to inspire discussion. Feel free to bring up any experiences, comments, questions, or ideas you might have.

12. Discussion What is your locality doing to provide a feeling of safety?
How are you leading in a way that makes citizens feel safe?
What resources are needed?
What questions do you have for other leaders?
Where do we, as a group, go from here?