1. The Federal R&D Budget Outlook
Matt Hourihan
September 23, 2019
For the State University System of Florida DC Workshop
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program

7. Congressional R&D Highlights: NIH
5th straight year of multibillion-dollar increases on the docket…
House: +$2 billion, +4.7%
Senate: +$3 billion, +7.7%
Would be highest funding since FY06
Most ICs receive increases of ~5%
Select Priorities:
Alzheimer’s: increased to $2.4-$2.8 billion
Precision medicine: $500 million
BRAIN Initiative: $411 mil vs. $500 mil
New money:
Pediatric cancer initiative: $50 million in both, as requested
Gun violence research: $50 million split between NIH / CDC in House
Facilities:
Extramural R&D facilities grants: $25 vs. $50 million
Senate: $300 million for NIH facilities

8. Congressional R&D Highlights: DOE
Office of Science:
House: +$285 million, +4.3%
Senate: +$630 million, +9.6%
Increases for undergrad support, math & CS research, ITER, among other areas
$10-$20 million increases for Energy Frontier Research Centers with new awards planned in FY20
$75 million for new Quantum Science Centers
Technology Programs:
ARPA-E: saved (again), increased by 16.9% in both
Efficiency and renewables: increases of 12-18%
Fossil: boosts for CCS, select other increases
Nuclear: mixed bag, apart from demonstration programs
Big increases for cybersecurity and grid R&D

9. Congressional R&D Highlights: DOD & USDA
DOD Basic Research:
House: +$14 million, +0.5%
Senate: +$100 million, +3.9%
University Initiatives: better in House, cut in Senate
Army boosted, mixed for others
National Defense Education Program and DARPA both trimmed in Senate
Medical research: $920 million vs. $809 million for CDMRP research
FY19: $1.2 billion
Defense Innovation Unit / National Security Innovation Network granted increases
US Department of Agriculture:
Extramural research (NIFA) fares a bit better in House…
AFRI: 12% vs 2.4% increases
Similar story for capacity grants
…while intramural (ARS) fares better in Senate
NIFA, ERS move to Kansas City funded in Senate bill, while House continues to oppose
Mulvaney: “What a wonderful way to streamline government”

10. House-Only So Far… NSF: +$561 million, 6.9% above FY19
STEM ed programs supported
NASA: +3.8%; Science Directorate +3.7%
Increases for WFIRST (Astrophysics), Earth Science
Education office (Space Grant) spared from elimination
Climate + Environment: EPA, NOAA, USGS have all dodged big cuts
NOAA: plus-ups of ~9% or more for ocean, coastal, atmospheric, and climate research programs; Sea Grant saved
USGS: largest increases for geological mapping, geospatial programs
Other boosts:
VA research up 7.8%
NIST Lab programs up 3.7%

11. State of Play and Next Steps
House mostly done: we estimate an overall increase of ~6% for research funding
Senate rolling…in a fashion. Some issues:
Border wall
Abortion funding
Gun violence research line items
But other research-relevant legislation (CJS, Interior, Energy) could see clearer sailing…?
Still haven’t gone to conference.
Fiscal year ends September 30: House CR runs through November 21
(Image source: Roll Call)

12. Beyond This Fall
Next year, much more limited cap space: less than 1% increase for defense and nondefense
Also, an election year…
2021: No more caps
Though “how much to spend” doesn’t stop being a major political question!
Budget resolution and debt ceiling return
Fiscal future: aging population, rising healthcare costs, and insufficient revenues mean…growing deficits, rising interest payments, and declining discretionary spending
And THAT could all mean stagnating science funding for some years to come
Or fiscal blowback (again)?

16. mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 http://www.aaas.org/rd
For more info…