1. TFEIP projections expert panel
5th Meeting
Vienna
12th May 2009

2. Projections expert panel meeting agenda
09:40 Welcome, meeting objectives and adoption of agenda
09:50 Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol (Eduard Dame)
10:10 Ireland projections presentation (Stephan Leinert)
10:35 Slovak projections presentation (Stanislava Nebusova)
11:00 Coffee
11:30 Feedback on recent meetings
12:00 Guidebook maintenance discussion
12:20 Discussion (including providing projections data, the web portal, 2009 workplan and AOB)
12:30 Meeting finishes

3. Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol (Eduard Dame)
Revision NEC Directive will not be proposed by current College of Commissioners
WGSR 20 – 23 April 2009 invited relevant TF’s and EP’s to continue working on the issue of long term objectives
Revision of Gothenburg Protocol (countries sending baselines to CIAM before end May)
Work for PRIMES 2009 is ongoing and it can be used for NECD revision and for Gothenburg Protocol (gap filling in national projections or replace national projections for EU-27)

4. Emission projections for NEC Gases – Ireland’s approach (Stephan Leinert)
Advantages:
Consistency with inventories/historic data
Consistency with national energy forecast
Consistency with GHG projections
Disadvantages:
Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g. agriculture)
Transport projection is not straight forward
Fuel tourism causes conflict between consistency with energy forecast for fuel and realistic car population/mileage
Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no breakdown within fuel types yet) 4

5. Slovak emission projections related to NEC Directive (Stanislava Nebusová)
Summary:
National emission ceiling for year 2010 are feasible to achieve
Proposed national emission ceiling for year 2020 is not easily to fulfil without additional PAMs
Model MESSAGE is very good model for projections in energy sector
Next steps:
Implement other models for non energy sectors
Transport
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste 5

6. Feedback from other meetings
NIAM/APRIL/UCL meeting. ‘Reducing the environmental impacts of transport with behavioural change’
8-9 January 2009, London
TFIAM/ACCENT workshop on non-binding aspirational scenarios for th March 2009, Utrecht
NIAM Meeting (in conjunction with EC4MACS project)
23-24 April 2009, IIASA 6

7. Guidebook discussion Few minor issues were discussed: 1. Definitions
2. Cost-effectiveness
3. Role of uncertainties and sensitivities

8. AOB items Workplan for 2009 Finalise Guidebook Chapter
Decide maintenance/improvement plan
Improve Web Page
Links to other panels (TFIAM, NIAM, etc.)
Decide one aspect per year to focus on (discuss, share documentation, work on it…)