1. Strategic Foresight in the Federal Government: An Agenda for Research
US. EPA
Joseph M. Greenblott, Thomas O’Farrell, Beth Burchard
Institute for Alternative Futures
Robert Olson

2. Approach Reviewed literature on strategic foresight
Conducted semi-structured interviews (in person and via telephone:
Initial convenience sample of individuals FFCOI, supplemented a snowball sample
19 Federal agencies and 2 non-Federal experts
Up to four representatives from a range of Federal defense, intelligence, and civilian agencies
Validated with participants:
1-3 page interview summaries
Draft Report

3. Participants U.S. Air Force Bureau of Prisons
Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement
Central Intelligence Agency
U.S. Coast Guard
Department of Veterans Affairs
Environmental Protection Agency
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Federal Emergency Management Agency
U.S. Forest Service
Government Accountability Office
U.S. Marine Corps
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
National Guard Bureau
National Intelligence Council
Office of Management and Budget
Office of Net Assessment
Office of Personnel Management
The Project on Forward Engagement
IBM Center for the Business of Government

4. Dedicated Staffing FTEs Median Minimum Maximum Number of Agencies
Median
Minimum
Maximum
Number of
Agencies
Reporting
Civilian 1
0.5 4 9
Defense-Intelligence
7.5 15 6
Overall 2

5. Dedicated Funding Extramural Funding Median Minimum Maximum Number of
Agencies
Reporting
Civilian
$50,000 $0
$750,000 9
Defense-Intelligence
$1,590,000
$500,000
$20,000,000 4
Overall
$225,000 13

6. Core Group Membership Participants Median Minimum Maximum Number of
Median
Minimum
Maximum
Number of
Agencies
Reporting
Civilian 8 5 20 4
Defense-Intelligence 15 12 25 3
Overall 7

7. Foresight Activity Participation
Active Participants
Median
Minimum
Maximum
Number of
Agencies
Reporting
Civilian 70 50
200 7
Defense-Intelligence
100 40 3
Overall 85 10

8. Foresight Methods Used by Federal Agencies
USAF
BOP
BSEE
CIA
USCG VA
EPA
FBI
FEMA
USFS
GAO
USMC
NASA
NGA
NGB
NIC
ONA
OPM
Total
Scanning/
Trend Analysis X 15
Scenarios
COP/Speaker Series 4
Delphi 3
Formal Training 2
Simulation/
Models 1
Backcasting

9. Forward-Looking Timeframes

10. Broad Observations
Federal foresight activity is increasing, but not fully institutionalized.
FFCOI has been a significant factor in the growth of federal foresight.
Agencies are in very different places on a “maturity scale.”
Interviewees aspire to expand the quality and influence of foresight.
Important to look beyond conventional planning horizons.
There is no standard organizational location for a foresight function.
Scanning and scenario planning are the most widely used methodologies.
Foresight programs use different methods to connect with leadership.

11. Challenges Capacity and resources.
Policy makers’ short-term goals, political imperatives, pressures to crisis manage.
Position anchoring and investment, cognitive dissonance, and resistance.
Location of foresight units.
Coordination, span of control, responsibility, or authority.
Issue complexity, abrupt and discontinuous change.
Demonstrating impact.

12. Research Needs
Policy makers’ perceptions of long-term risks and uncertainty, and the government’s role in managing to this future uncertainty.
Methodologies to assess maturity of, need for, and impact of foresight programs.
Integration of foresight into planning and management processes.
Approaches for selecting and using alternative foresight methodologies.
Executive foresight training and delivery.

13. Correspondence and Access
Dr. Joseph M. Greenblott
Office of Planning, Analysis and Accountability
Office of the Chief Financial Officer
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. (2722A)
Washington, DC 20460
Tel:
Published Paper: World Futures Review
Accepted Manuscript (Institute for Alternative Futures website)