1. Where are we headed? Population Change in North Carolina
Summer Educational Leadership Conference June 25, 2019
Jessica Stanford Carolina Demography

2. About Carolina Demography
We help people throughout our state answer the question: Where is North Carolina heading?
Located within the Carolina Population Center at UNC-Chapel Hill, we use population-level data and other available research to provide context and perspective to people working to shape North Carolina’s future.
Our clients include local and state governments, foundations, businesses, schools, and not-for profit organizations who need accurate and specific information to make decisions and better understand their communities. We are non-partisan, rigorous, and approachable: Our team uses demographic, social, and economic data to answer questions policymakers, educators, foundations, business leaders, local governments, and non-profits have on demographic changes across our state.

3. How are we changing? How fast is North Carolina growing?
What drives educational attainment in our state?
At what rate is our population aging?
To what extent are we becoming more diverse?
Where can we predict our population to go from here?

4. Urban counties vs. rural counties
Let’s define them.

5. NC counties located within metropolitan statistical areas
Counties centered around at least one urban area with a population of at least 50K
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-
Newport News
Burlington
Winston-Salem
Greensboro- High Point
Durham-Chapel Hill
Rocky Mount
Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton
Raleigh
Asheville
Greenville
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia
Goldsboro
New Bern
Fayetteville
Jacksonville
Wilmington
Myrtle Beach-Conway- North Myrtle Beach
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. Pinehurst-Southern Pines
NC counties located within micropolitan statistical areas
Counties centered around at least one urban area with a population of at least 10K but less than 50K
Elizabeth City
Henderson
Mount Airy
Roanoke Rapids
Oxford
Boone
North Wilkesboro
Pinehurst-Southern Pines
Kill Devil Hills
Washington
Sanford
Marion
Wilson
Brevard
Forest City
Dunn
Shelby
Kinston
Albemarle
Cullowhee
Rockingham
Lumberton
Morehead City
Laurinburg
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. Rural NC counties fall outside of either metro- or micropolitan areas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

8. Population growth

9. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

10. North Carolina’s Total Population, 1990-2035
10.4M
in 2018
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

11. of population growth was in urban counties, 1990-2018
North Carolina’s Total Population,
10.4M
in 2018
88%
of population growth was in urban counties,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

12. of population growth was in urban counties, 1990-2018
North Carolina’s Total Population,
10.4M
in 2018
88%
of population growth was in urban counties,
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NC OSBM

13. Aging

14. Urban NC counties generally show smaller shares of 65+, rural counties show larger shares
Percentage of population aged 65 and over by county, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

15. Urban NC counties generally show smaller shares of 65+, rural counties show larger shares
Percentage of population aged 65 and over by county, 2017
Brunswick
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

16. Rural counties tend to have smaller shares of children under 18, though some outliers exist
Percentage of population aged 18 and under by county, 2017
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

17. Rural counties tend to have smaller shares of children under 18, though some outliers exist
Percentage of population aged 18 and under by county, 2017
Sampson
Duplin
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

18. Racial/ethnic composition

19. North Carolina’s population over three-fourths White in 1990

20. Rapid growth in new immigrant populations partly due to very small population size
Over 120% growth in the Asian population from
Nearly 400% growth in the Hispanic population.

21. Hispanic population growth slows after reaching majority native-born

22. Asian and multi-racial now fastest-growing demographic groups
M-R: 227K H: 962K A: 293K
AI: 111K

23. Differences in age structure has resulted in much more diverse younger population Racial/ethnic distribution, NC adults (20+) and school-age population (0-19), 2017
Source: 2017 American Community Survey (IPUMS)

24. Educational attainment

25. 1.3 million more individuals with an associate degree or higher from 1990 to 2017
Source: American Community Survey 2017 estimates

26. were born in North Carolina
Of those with an AA+ degree…
35%
were born in North Carolina
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

27. 35% 50% Of those with an AA+ degree… were born in North Carolina
were born in another state or country
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

28. In nearly all rural counties, less than 30% of adults over 25 have any postsecondary degree
Share of population with an associate degree or higher by county, 2017
Source: 2017 American Community Survey

29. Fewer than 3 in 5 households in many rural counties have access to an internet subscription
Share of NC households with an internet subscription by county, 2017

30. Population projections

31. Almost all future NC growth projected to occur in urban areas
Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas
Data Source: NC OSBM

32. Two-thirds of NC growth projected to occur Triangle or Charlotte
Projected share of state population growth for select North Carolina metropolitan areas
Data Source: NC OSBM

33. By 2035, more than 1 in 5 NC residents will be 65 or older Projected population share 65+, NC vs. US,
Data Source: NC OSBM, U.S. Census Bureau

34. Kindergarten-age population expected to decline typically in rural counties
Projected population growth of children aged 4-6 by county,

35. How is North Carolina changing?
1M to be added each decade through 2035
Attainment mostly attributed by in-migrants
Rapid aging, esp. in rural counties
Slower but consistent growth, increased diversity and aging
Diversity fastest among Asian and Multi-Racial populations

36. What questions do you have about your community?
(919)
Web: demography.cpc.unc.edu