1. Directors of Social Statistics (DSS) 1-2 Mars 2018
Item 6
Use of provisional income registers
in EU-SILC
Directors of Social Statistics (DSS) 1-2 Mars 2018

2. Background
Needs for timelier social statistics in particular in the context of the European Semester
SILC national action plans on timeliness and regionalisation of EU-SILC since 2014
Progresses achieved and around 20 Member States provided their 2016 SILC microdata files at the latest in June/July 2017 and all but one in October
BUT SILC survey collected in N+1 made available by June N+2 contains income data N, i.e. made available 1.5 year later and after the end of the European Semester in Spring N+2

3. State of play
Flash estimates to provide estimated data much earlier in September N+1
But a need for “real” data during the Semester to finalise analyses and country reports
In the agreement reached by the Council for the discussions on IESS it has been agreed that data should be made available as follows:
Final data at the end of December N+1
In exceptional cases provisional data at the end of December N+1 and revised data at the end of February N+2

4. State of play - EU28 MS N+2 SILC data N+1 Income N ≤31/12 N+1 ≤31/03
≤30/06
09 N+2
Income N+1
≤30/09
2018
2017 data
2016 income
2017
Income 2016 DK, LV, HU ?
2016 data
2015 income
2016
LV, HU 5 18
FE Income 2016 26 HU 14 27
2015 4 10 24
2014 7
2013 3 15

5. Use preliminary income registers
Difficulties in particular for countries using registers as, e.g., taxes registers need time to finalise fiscal adjustments (or social security files)
Conference on Social Statistics 2016: DK & SI presented the use of preliminary income data from registers
Implemented by DK in 2017 for 2017 SILC i.e. income 2016, sent in November 2017 and considered as final data
LV & HU final – HU: survey; LV: also registers

6. Preliminary incomes coverage
Type of income – Slide Statistics DK
Preliminary incomes coverage
(2014)
Coverage in per cent
(March/April N+1)
98,6 %
1,1 %
98,0 %
80,8 %

7. Difference in percentage points
Type of income – Slide Statistics SI
(preliminary: June N+1)
Difference by wages
Ratio
Difference in percentage points
Ratio 2012 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary
100.51
0.51
Ratio 2012 sum net final/sum net preliminary
100.46
0.46
Ratio 2012 receivers final/receivers preliminary
100.31
0.31
Ratio 2013 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary
101.01
1.01
Ratio 2013 sum net final/sum net preliminary
101.03
1.03
Ratio 2013 receivers final/receivers preliminary
100.63
0.63
Source: SURS, FURS

8. Difference by pensions
Type of income – Slide Statistics SI
(preliminary: June N+1)
Difference by pensions
Ratio
Difference in percentage points
Ratio 2012 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary
100.06
0.06
Ratio 2012 sum net final/sum net preliminary
Ratio 2012 receivers final/receivers preliminary
100.01
0.01
Ratio 2013 sum gross final/sum gross preliminary
100.05
0.05
Ratio 2013 sum net final/sum net preliminary
Ratio 2013 receivers final/receivers preliminary
100.03
0.03
Source: SURS, FURS

9. Imputations – Slide Statistics DK
The missing components of ”other income” - Potential data sources at N+4.
Non taxable transfers Timely available in public registers. In some cases we might need earlier data deliveries
Income from self-employment
Imputation based on income from previous years, current wage levels and market developments
Property income
Imputation based on income from previous years, the wealth register, interest rates and stock market data
Imputed rent
Housing evaluation register from prior year and the population register

10. Imputations and editing
All data from SILC were copied to another server; we added preliminary data in an additional table. The data were processed there.
We used completely the same methods for data processing as in regular SILC data processing.
For the data where we found mistakes in 2012 but not in further years, we took the final data also for calculating indicators from preliminary data

11. Discussion at DSS board 12/2017
What is the "good time" (cut-off) to extract preliminary income register data, i.e. criteria?
Current "final" is still slightly revised later by administrations in charge, hence:
Are earlier (preliminary) data "provisional"? Sequence: (flash) estimates / provisional / final
Or can they replace the current "final"? Is quality (wages, transfers, imputations) enough (including for breakdowns)?
Communication issues?
Next steps to promote this methodology?

12. Views of the DSS board 12/2017 Interest for the method
Various countries are investigating the method and expect to be able to deliver data according to it when implementing IESS (or before)
The SILC datasets obtained shall be considered as the final ones; the issue is to choose the good cut- off date i.e. when preliminary tax data are good enough to provide precise enough indicators
A topic of the 2018 EU-SILC call for proposals for improvements with a view to the revision of SILC
One topic discussed at future annual best practices workshops for SILC improvement

13. DSS board is asked to discuss
The feasibility:
Accessibility
Cut-off date (national)?
How to impute missing data?
Other experiences?
Advantages and difficulties
The way forward