1. What if? prospects based on Corilis
Alex Oulton,
Manuel Winograd
& Jean-Louis Weber
(draft, 14 Nov. 08)

2. Corilis is the computation in a regular grid of CLC values in and in the neighbourhood of each cell (in the application: radius of 5km) Ref.: EEA 2006, Land accounts for Europe B A
Areas prone to agriculture intensification driven by the agro-fuel demand: assumptions
minimum of 20% of agriculture potential (~UAA)  mountains, urban areas, large forests… are excluded.
higher potential for conversion when the 2 agriculture types are balanced (very intensive areas will not intensify any more, very extensive areas result probably from relief and climate conditions which will restrict intensification)
For each grid cell of 1km², the formula is therefore:
Conversion Potential =
[Potential (A-B)]2 * Potential (A+B), when Potential (A+B) > 20.
Value normalised to 0 to 100

3. From Corine land cover to Corilis

4. Analysis of Corilis values of classes 2a and 2b
What if? prospect: where conversion to broad pattern intensive agriculture may take place?
Analysis of Corilis values of classes 2a and 2b
2a = broad pattern intensive agriculture (clc21, )
2b = pastures and mosaics (clc231, 242, 243 & 244)
Each cell of the grid is given a value of:
(2a-2b)2 *(2a+2b)
Positive values (more intensive) are brown, negative values (more pasture and mosaics) are green, yellow meaning transition areas
2a+2b = UAA = assumed to be constant (e.g. no deforestation)
the share of 2a within 2a-2b increases of 5, 10, 20 and 50%
Problems of visualisation at the European scale but clear vision at the regional scale
-100
+100

5. -100
+100

7. Urban temperature 2010 – prospect 1
What if? prospect: when urban sprawl takes place in the neighbouring countryside…
Baseline Data: Corilis / Urban Temperature 2000, scale of // Average increase : 5%, even over Europe
Prospect 1: a constant of 5 points is added up to Corilis values > 5 (below 5 corresponds to remote countryside)
Urban temperature 2000
Urban temperature 2010 – prospect 1 10
100

8. What if? Prospect: urban sprawl in the countryside
Corilis 2000
+3 points
+5 points
+10 points 10
100

9. What if? Prospect: when urban sprawl takes place in the countryside10
100