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Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath
Current state of COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE verification using Analysis, SYNOP- and upper air observations Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath
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Outline Verification against analysis Verification against SYNOPs
Traditional verification - known problems Conditional verification Verification against upper air observations Some time series A problem using observations Verification against SYNOP-observations Warning: Be prepared to see a lot of red and blue lines!
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Verification against analysis
All levels All forecast times with an increment of 12 hours All elements on pressure levels Comparison with GME
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Verification against analysis: mslp
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Verification against analysis: RH 850 hPa
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Verification against SYNOPs temperature 06 UTC
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Verification against SYNOPs temperature 12 UTC
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Verification against SYNOPs temperature 18 UTC
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Verification against SYNOPs maximum temperature 06-18 UTC
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Verification against SYNOPs pressure bias 06 UTC
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Example for conditional verification
Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 (RMSE and STDV) Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values lower than 1020 hPa (RMSE and STDV) Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values higher than 1020 hPa (RMSE and STDV)
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Conditional verification
Surface weather elements Conditions concerning cloud cover pressure temperature Criteria observation below/above mean observation forecast below/above mean observation
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Conditional verification (no condition, winter)
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Conditional verification (high cloud covers, winter)
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Conditional verification (low cloud covers, winter)
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Conditional verification (high temperatures, winter)
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Conditional verification (low temperatures, winter)
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Conditional verification (no condition, summer)
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Conditional verification (high temperatures, summer)
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Conditional verification (low temperatures, summer)
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RMSE Rel.Hum./Temperature (LM Area)
2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007
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RMSE Wind Speed/Geopotential (LM Area)
2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007
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BIAS Rel.Humidity/Temperature (LM Area)
2005 2006 2007 2005 2006 2007
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Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2006/2007 in LM Area
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Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2007 in COSMO-DE/LM Area
COSMO-DE Area Summer 2007 BIAS RMSE LM Area Summer 2007 BIAS RMSE
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Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE June 2007 COSMO-DE/EU
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Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE July 2007 COSMO-DE/EU
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Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE August 2007 COSMO-DE/EU
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Comparison: BIAS/RMSE of COSMO-EU Temperature, Winddirection/speed
against Radiosonde and Windprofiler Data from Lindenberg 00 UTC 12 UTC BIAS RMSE BIAS RMSE BIAS RMSE BIAS RMSE BIAS RMSE BIAS RMSE
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Summary Verification against analysis confirms some problems that can be shown with verification against SYNOPs Verification against SYNOPs Problems with pressure bias indicate the need of a SSO-scheme Systematic errors of temperature forecasts can be partial explained by conditional verification Verification against upper air observations Effects of pseudotemps and introduction of GME/40km can be seen clearly Cold bias of temperature within the boundary layer is a COSMO-law, especially during winter Some systematic differences between COSMO-EU and -DE exist for the boundary layer Be careful when using new observation systems to verify a model!
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