1. Key Issue 3: Why is Population Increasing at Different Rates in Different Countries?

2. Demographic Transition Model
(check out pg 8)
The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

3. The Demographic Transition
1. Low growth – 3. Moderate growth
2. High growth – 4. Low growth
Population pyramids
Age distribution
Sex ratio
Countries in different stages of demographic transition
Demographic transition and world population growth

4. Demographic Transition Model
Stage one
Crude birth/death rate high
Fragile population
Stage two
Lower death rates
Infant mortality rate
Natural increase high
Stage three
Indicative of richer developed countries
Higher standards of living/education
Stage Four
CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =
ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth
Most Northern and Western Euro countries

5. Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

6. Moderate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

7. Low Growth in Denmark
Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

8. Stage One Pre-industrial
CBR and CDR high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters.
Population is a constant and young pop.

9. Stage Two
Death rates drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc.
Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.

10. Stage Three Birth rates fall Population growth begins to level off
Access to contraception
Increase in wages
Urbanization
Move away from subsistence agriculture.
Education of women
Population growth begins to level off

11. Stage Four Low birth AND low death.
Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth.
Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.

12. Soooo…. A cycle in a way from 1 to 4
Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low.
Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1

16. Dependency Ratio
A country wants a balance between young, working, and elderly populations… this is called the dependency ratio.
Most of the population should be in the “working years.”
Some countries have many births/children who are dependent, others have the older generations.
“World Aging at Super Speed”:

17. The Demographic Transition in England
Now Stage 4
Historically
Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750
Stage 2 – High growth
Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s
Stage 4 – Early 1970’s-present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

18. Problems with the Demographic Transition Model
based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3
it is not an exact science!!!!!!!! (Possible Stage 5????)

19. Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!