1. Re-designing Decision-Making Processes (Kennedy Cases)
Prof. Morten Hansen
MIIC, Nov

2. Three lessons GROUPTHINK CONFLICT LESSONS FOR THE GENERAL MANAGER
Increasing cognitive conflict, decreasing affective conflict
LESSONS FOR THE GENERAL MANAGER

3. SMOOTHING/AVOIDING BEHAVIOR = GROUPTHINK
What is Groupthink?
SMOOTHING/AVOIDING BEHAVIOR = GROUPTHINK
“ ‘groupthink’ ... refer(s) to a mode of thinking that people engage in when they are deeply involved in a cohesive in-group, when the members’ striving for unanimity overrides their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action ... Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment that results from in-group pressures.”
- Janis, Victims of Groupthink, p. 9

4. Symptoms of Groupthink
Illusions of invulnerability
Collective rationalization and discounting of warnings
Unquestioned belief in the group’s inherent morality
Stereotyped views of the enemy
Direct pressure on any group member who argues against the group’s stereotypes, illusions, or proposals
Self-censorship of disagreement with the group’s apparent consensus
Shared illusions of unanimity
Self-appointed mindguards who protect the group from adverse information that might shatter their complacency
SOURCE: Janis,Victims of Groupthink

5. Results of Groupthink
Discussions are limited to only a few alternative courses of action.
The alternative preferred by the majority of members is not examined critically for nonobvious risks.
Alternatives initially judged to be unsatisfactory are not reexamined for ways to make them acceptable.
There is little attempt to obtain information from unbiased experts.
Members process information selectively, favoring facts and opinion that support their initial preference.
There is little discussion of likely resistance, setbacks, or difficulties with the preferred alternative, and no careful contingency plans.
SOURCE: Janis,Victims of Groupthink

6. Key is to increase cognitive and decrease affective conflict
Some techniques for increasing the “gap”:
Establish and reinforce norms that make vigorous debates the rule rather than the exception
Propose novel, unexpected questions that prompt debate without undermining any individual’s position
Insist that debates be resolved by revisiting facts, assumptions, and pre-established decision criteria, not by power or the loudest voice
Seek intermediate agreements about key elements of a problem along the way to a final decision
Break up pre-established coalitions and assign tasks on other than traditional functional or divisional loyalties
Choose words carefully to avoid inflammatory, offensive language

7. Creating Decision Making Processes: The General Manager’s Role
GM’s Role
Approaches to Managing the Process
Factors Creating
The Context
Quality of Problem Solving Processes
Quality of Outcomes
Structure
Membership
Setting
Leadership
Experience
Style
Situational Factors
Level of urgency
Time available
Roles Assigned
Conflict Mgmt.
Norms
Openness to data
Underlying agenda
Power balancing
Size of Group
Means of dialogue
Multiple alternatives
Testing of assumptions
Clear criteria
Dissent & debate
Perceived fairness
Quality of decision
Implementation effectiveness
Timeliness

8. The General Manager’s Role: Specific Actions/Responsibilities
Before/After Group Meetings:
Choose the “means of dialogue”
Select the team members
Assess members’ capabilities (perhaps seek unbiased outside experts)
Assign individual roles if necessary
Determine the setting for group meetings
Identify the level of urgency
Influence and/or establish group norms
Search for methods to encourage cognitive conflict as well as ways to mitigate affective conflict
Ask the group to periodically analyze the strengths and weaknesses of the decision making process

9. The General Manager’s Role: Specific Actions/Responsibilities
During Group Meetings:
Define the agenda topics
Clarify meeting objectives
Question and test for understanding
Manage time allocated to each topic
“Call the question” - clarify when its time to finalize a decision
Summarize discussions and the results of work sessions
Identify next steps and accountabilities
After reaching agreement, determine whether a “second chance” meeting may be necessary
SOURCES: D. Nadler, “Managing the Team at the Top”; Janis, Victims of Groupthink

10. The Effective General Manager is…
“shaping how the team works by managing its work process. In that manner, he is very directive and is pushing the team toward high performance, but he is doing that through management of the process, rather than taking a position on all of the elements of the team’s work.”
SOURCE: D. Nadler, “Managing the Team at the Top”

11. Conclusion: debate and buy-in
“I don’t care how smart you are….Success and failure depends on how well the staff and cabinet debate honestly and openly and then unite once you’ve made a decision.”
Bill Clinton

12. Diversity in counsel,
unity in command.
- Cyrus the Great

13. Project Groups
Agree on a method for generating cognitive conflict/debate in your group (while minimizing affective conflict)
How will you surface assumptions you are making?
Agree on a process for how to address issues of fair/equal contributions in your team. How/when discuss if an issue?