1. Groupthink What is it? Why should we care about it? What can we do about it?

2. What is groupthink? groupthink occurs when a group makes faulty decisions because group pressures lead to a deterioration of “mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment” (Irving Janis, 1972, p. 9).

3. Why should we care about groupthink?

4. Examples In the Last Fifty Years Groupthink

5. Bay of Pigs Fiasco in 1961

6. US Escalation of the Vietnam War

7. Failed Rescue Attempt of Hostages at US Embassy in Iran

8. Challenger Disaster

9. 1987 Market Crash

10. 1989 Japanese Stock Market Crash

11. 2000 US Stock Market Bubble

13. Financial Bubbles

14. US Invasion of Iraq: Groupthink

15. Predetermined Policy Decision about Iraq and Saddam Hussein Discount warnings and do not reconsider their assumptions even as other countries challenge them

16. Symptoms of Groupthink Illusion of invulnerability Collective rationalization Belief in inherent morality Stereotyped views of out-groups Direct pressure on dissenters Self-censorship Illusion of unanimity Self-appointed ‘mindguards’

17. Illusion of Invulnerability Creates excessive optimism that encourages taking extreme risks.

18. Collective Rationalization Members discount warnings and do not reconsider their assumptions.

19. Belief in Inherent Morality Members believe in the rightness of their cause and therefore ignore the ethical or moral consequences of their decisions.

20. Stereotyped Views of Out-groups Negative views of “enemy” make effective responses to conflict seem unnecessary

21. Direct Pressure on Dissenters Members are under pressure not to express arguments against any of the group’s views.

22. Self-censorship Doubts and deviations from the perceived group consensus are not expressed

23. Illusion of Unanimity The majority view and judgments are assumed to be unanimous.

24. Self-appointed ‘mindguards’ Members protect the group and the leader from information that is problematic or contradictory to the group’s cohesiveness, view, and/or decisions

25. Remedies for Groupthink The leader should assign the role of critical evaluator to each member The leader should avoid stating preferences and expectations at the outset Each member of the group should routinely discuss the groups' deliberations with a trusted associate and report back to the group on the associate's reactions

26. More Remedies for Groupthink One or more experts should be invited to each meeting on a staggered basis and encouraged to challenge views of the members. At least one member should be given the role of devil's advocate (to question assumptions and plans) The leader should make sure that a sizeable block of time is set aside to survey warning signals.

27. Dealing with Dissenters pressure not to express arguments against any of the administration’s actions.

28. Imminent Danger from Weapons of Mass Destruction selective bias in processing information at hand

29. Limited Examination of Risks of Actions failure to work out contingency plans

30. Self-appointed ‘mindguards’?

31. Janis’ Antecedent Conditions very strong group cohesion was the primary antecedent condition for group think –normative and informational social influence should both be very powerful forces. complemented by –group antecedent conditions –situational antecedent conditions

32. Group Antecedent Conditions the insulation of the group from outside influences the lack of a tradition of impartial leadership (i.e., directive leadership) lack of group norms favoring methodical search procedures homogeneity of member attitude or ideology

33. Situational Antecedent Conditions high stress from an external threat, group insulation from critics low situational member self esteem –due to recent failure –de to complexity of the current decision problem

34. Symptoms of Groupthink overestimation of the in-group (as strong, smart, invulnerable, morally superior) corresponding negative stereotyping regarding the outgroup (as weak, immoral, vulnerable, stupid, and wrong) close-mindedness (e.g. rationalization of doubt) pressures for uniformity (via mindguards, self censorship, illusion of unanimity)

35. Defective Decision-making Processes inadequate contingency plans for failure inadequate information search, biased assessment of risks, costs, benefits and moral implications (e.g. inadequate consideration of worst case scenarios), incomplete consideration of the full range of decision options failure to reconsider the extent to which original/fundamental objectives were served by the advocated action.

36. Limitations Experimental failure to verify Janis' antecedents

37. Baron's Ubiquity Model of Groupthink social identification with the collection of individuals they are among. –linked by some common purpose, history, shared fate, or emotional orientation –Common allegiance and social identity self-definition, and self esteem are strongly affected by one’s social allegiances –ingroup members share their vested interests, values, limitations and frames of reference.

38. Ubiquity Model Social identification –deviance may threaten one’s self categorization as an in-group member –use of cognitive distortion semantic reinterpretation in an effort to minimize perceptions of social deviance and will –show drops in self esteem when such cognitive avoidance is difficult.

39. Ubiquity Model First antecedent –Social identification Second antecedent –Group interaction and discussion must produce or reveal an emerging or dominant group norm Third antecedent –low situational self efficacy in which group members generally lack confidence in their ability to reach satisfactory resolution of the conundrum facing them

40. Affect Control Theory Institutions are created to reinforce significant social identities based upon fundamental shared affective orientations

41. Fundamental Emotions Optimism/PessimismEconomics Anger/ContentmentPolitics Agreeableness/DisgustReligion

42. What can we do about it?

43. Knowledge is Power Access a variety of media sources from around the world Think carefully and deeply about actions, policy, and their underlying assumptions

44. Think About Underlying Assumptions and Implications

45. Challenge Others to Think

47. Philosophy Critical Philosophy –Death and ostracism as the punishment for disagreement with the group mind Dogmatic Philosophy –Reinforces the existing order

48. The Crisis of Our Time Our time is similar to the times of Plato –The end of the Classical period –The end of the Athenian Empire End of a major cycle –The end of a 200-year philosophy of competitive individualism –The end of the American Empire

49. The Crisis of Our Times