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K-State Research & Extension U.S. Cattle Sector James Mintert, Ph.D. Professor Dept. of Agricultural Economics Kansas State University
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K-State Research & Extension Visit K-State’s AgManager Web Site @ agmanager.info
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K-State Research & Extension U.S. Cattle Sector 1 Cattle Finishing Sector 2 Stocker/Backgrounder Sector 3 Cow-Calf Sector
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K-State Research & Extension United States Fed (Slaughter) Cattle Marketed By State
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K-State Research & Extension Tenth District Fed (Slaughter) Cattle Marketings By State
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K-State Research & Extension United States # of Beef Cows By State
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K-State Research & Extension Tenth District # of Beef Cows By State
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Issues » Demand » Supply Short Run Issues » Supplies Fed Cattle Price Determination
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K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply Demand P0P0 Q0Q0 Fed Cattle Price Determination
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K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply 0 Demand 0 P1P1 Q1Q1 Fed Cattle Price Determination Long Run S1S1 D1D1
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Supply Issues
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Slaughter Cattle Demand K-State Research & Extension
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Slaughter Cattle Demand
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K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand Index
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K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand Weakened
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K-State Research & Extension Beef Demand’s Turnaround
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K-State Research & Extension But Demand Weakened In ‘02
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K-State Research & Extension Will Beef Demand Rebound In ‘03?
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K-State Research & Extension Long Run Issues » Demand Shifters – Income – Population – Competing Meat Supplies – Exports (Income, Population & Market Access) – Tastes and Preferences Fed Cattle Price Determination Long Run
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K-State Research & Extension
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Long-Run Beef Export Growth Has Been Phenomenal
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K-State Research & Extension Net Exports Have Been Growing Source: LMIC & U.S. Dept. of Commerce
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K-State Research & Extension Who We Ship Beef To Changed In 2002
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K-State Research & Extension Who We Ship Beef To Changed In 2002
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K-State Research & Extension Russia’s Ban On Poultry Imports Increased Domestic Competing Meat Supplies
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K-State Research & Extension Russia’s Ban On Poultry Imports Increased Domestic Competing Meat Supplies
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Beef and Beef From Live Cattle Imports as a Percentage of U.S. Supply Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center Percent K-State Research & Extension
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U.S. Beef, Veal and Live Animal Exports Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center K-State Research & Extension
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U.S. Beef and Veal Exports As A Percentage of U.S. Beef Supply Source: Livestock Marketing Information Center & MSU Trade Research Center K-State Research & Extension
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Forecasting Cattle Supplies Annual Production Forecasts » Cattle Cycle » Annual Inventory Estimates – USDA’s Annual Cattle Inventory Report
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K-State Research & Extension
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Average Cattle Cycle Is About 10 Years But Current Cycle Is In Its 14th Year
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K-State Research & Extension Drought Produced Another Round of Modest Liquidation in 2002
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K-State Research & Extension Total Cow Slaughter Changed Little In ‘02 Most of the “Drought” Cows Did Not Go to Slaughter
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K-State Research & Extension Cow Slaughter Up This Year But Increase Is Primarily Dairy Cows
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K-State Research & Extension PRICE QUANTITY Supply 0 Demand 0 Fed Cattle Price Determination Short Run S1S1 S2S2 P1P1 P0P0 P2P2
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K-State Research & Extension Short Run Issues » Supplies – Cattle On Feed Reports Forecasting Cattle Prices
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K-State Research & Extension
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Short Run Issues » Supplies – Cattle On Feed Reports Role of Non-Fed Slaughter Seasonal Variation Forecasting Cattle Prices
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K-State Research & Extension Cyclical Peak In Slaughter Cattle Prices Still Ahead
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K-State Research & Extension
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Visit K-State’s AgManager Web Site @ agmanager.info
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