1. Which of the following is large scale? Small scale?
Warm Up:
Which of the following is large scale? Small scale?
What is the difference between site and situation?
3. What city lies at 34 degrees North, degrees East? A B

2. A B Warm Up: Which of the following is large scale? Small scale?
Large Small
2. What is the difference between site and situation?
Site refers to it’s physical and cultural features, independent of its relationship to other places around it. (San Francisco is a peninsula separating the bay from the ocean.) Situation describes a place in relation to things around it. (To the east of San Fran is the bay and Oakland.)
3. What city lies at 40 degrees north, negative 83.4 degrees east?
Athens, Georgia A B

3. Imagine that the number of students in our AP HuG Class has doubled
Imagine that the number of students in our AP HuG Class has doubled. list the effects of this, both positive and negative. Would you like to have more, fewer or the same number of students in the class as now?

4. Questions:
1. What services are easier to provide for an area of high population density?
2. What qualities are desirable about areas of lower population density?
3. If population continues to grow locally, what is the impact on population density?

5. Human Geography
Unit II. Population

6. Population Geography Distribution of World Population
Population Statistics
Population Pyramids
Demographic Transition Theory
Population Control
Overpopulation (Malthus and Neo-Malthusians)

7. Population
Demography: The study of the Characteristics of human population
Demographers look statistically at how people are distributed spatially by age, gender, occupation, fertility, health, etc.
The distribution of the worlds population is in one word “uneven”

10. A little information about world Population
80% of pop. Lives within 500 Mi. of an ocean
World inhabitants live on only 10% of the land
90% of pop. Lives North of the Equator
65% lives between 20°N and 60 ° N latitude

13. Population Concentrations
23 countries = 75% of world population (172)
10 Countries have pops. Greater than 100M
China, India, United States, Indonesia, Brazil
China: 1.4 billion
India: 1.3 billion
U.S.: 325 million
Indonesia: 263 million

14. World and Country Population Totals
Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface!
Total: 6.6 billion on planet as of 2007
World Clock!
Five most populous regions and countries
REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION
East Asia billion China billion
South Asia billion India million
Europe million U.S million
SE Asia million Indonesia million
East N. Am million Brazil million

15. Factors that Shape Distribution
Accessibility
Topography
Soil Fertility
Climate
Weather
Water
Political History
Economic History

16. Ecumene
Ecumene, or portion of the earth’s surface that has permanent human settlement has expanded to cover most of the earth’s land area.
Expansion of the Ecumene BC - AD 1900

17. Population Density
Density: numerical measure of the relationship between the number of people and some other unit of interest (typically space)

18. 3 Main Types of Densities Crude/Arithmetic Physiological
Population Density
3 Main Types of Densities
Crude/Arithmetic
Physiological
Agricultural

19. Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2
Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.
Agricultural Population Density- Compares the number of farmers to the area of arable land.

20. Crude/Arithmetic Density
Total number of people divided by the total land are (also called pop. Density)
Limitations
Assumes Uniformity
One dimensional
Tells little about opportunities or obstacles contained in the relationship of people to land

21. Assumes Uniformity Example: New York State
People Per Sq. Mile (6th)
Remove NY City Population of 8 Million
And area of NYC 368 sq mi.
Density = People Per Sq. Mile

22. Population Density of Georgia

23. Physiological Density
Ratio of population to a given unit of cultivated land
Number of people dependant on each unit of cultivated land
Excludes agriculturally non-productive land
Reflects the “burden of dependency” or “carrying capacity”

24. Physiological Density
United States = 404 people are supported by 1 sq mile of arable land
Egypt = 9,073 people per sq. Mile
Why is Physiological Density More meaningful than Crude/Arithmetic Density?

25. Answer
Physiological gives us a better picture of the populations strain on the country’s resources
EXAMPLE
United States
Crude Density = 78 per sq. mi.
Physiological = 404 per sq. mi.
Egypt
Crude Density = 185 per sq. mi.
Physiological = 9,073 per sq. mi.
*A large difference between Crude & Physiological density indicates that a small percentage of region’s land is capable of growing crops

26. Population Density – Egypt
All but 5% of Egyptian people live in the Nile river valley
It is the only area in the country that receives enough moisture to allow intensive cultivation of crops
Physiological Density is useful when trying to determine a country’s carrying capacity, or the population it can support without significant environmental deterioration.

27. Agricultural Population Density
Compares the number of farmers to the area of arable land
Gives an indication of the efficiency of the region’s farmers
Developed countries have lower agricultural densities because farmers have resources to use technology & produce large quantities of food w/fewer workers
Less developed countries have higher agricultural densities because they have less technology and depend of more workers

28. Growth

29. - Fertility and Mortality
Growth
In order to understand population growth and change we must first create an understanding of 2 significant factors:
- Fertility and Mortality

30. Measuring Population
Geographers/Demographers most frequently measure population change in a country through 3 measures

31. Measuring Population Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
Natural means excluding migration
Crude means looking at society as a whole

33. Crude Birth Rate
Total number of live births in a year for every 1,000 people alive
CBR of 20 means that for every 1,000 people in a country 20 babies are born over a one-year period
CBR for United States 2016 = 12
CBR = number of live births ÷ population x 1000

35. Crude Death Rate
Total number of deaths in a year for every 1,000 people
CDR for United States 2016 = 8.2
CDR = number of deaths ÷ population x 1000

37. Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
Percentage by which a population grows in a year
Computed CBR – CDR after first converting the two measures from numbers per 1,000 to % (# per 100)
CBR = 20 , CDR = 5
20 – 5 = 15 per 1,000 or 1.5% (15÷1000 x100)

38. Rates of Natural Increase

39. Natural Increase = CBR - CDR

40. Effects of Natural Rate on a Large Base Population

41. Demographic Equations
Growth Rate (%) = (Birth Rate – Death Rate) +/– Migration
= Rate of Natural Increase (%)
Population Doubling Time (yrs.) = 70  Growth Rate
“Rule of 70” Since the early 1800’s, population has been growing exponentially.
Example: In 2014, Ivory Coast had a population growth rate of 2.0.
70/2=35, so the population of Ivory Coast will double in 35 years.

42. Doubling Time World = 50 U.S. = 35 MDC = 550 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22
How long will it take for a population of a
given area to double in size?
• Doubling time assumes the population will
grow at a given annual rate
• Approximated by dividing the annual rate
of population into 70
World = 50
U.S. = 35
MDC = 550
LDC = 40
Honduras = 22
Denmark = 700
Russia = never?
Example: Bangladesh
70/R.N.I. => 70/2.09 = 33.5 years
Bangladesh with a population of million people in 2005 will have approximately 288.6
million people in 2038, if the population continues to grow at current rates.

45. Fertility
Total fertility rate (TFR) average number of children a woman will have throughout her childbearing years (15-49)
TFR attempts to predict the future (assumptions of future fertility on current)
World TFR is around 3.
Sub Saharan Africa >6
Europe <2

46. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
Amount of children a women will have on average during her child bearing years.
High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.
Fertility Rate = __number of live births during time period__ X 1,000
total population of females age at
mid-point of time period

47. Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2.
2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age.
England & Wales

48. Total Fertility Rate

49. New Influences on Birth Rates
Family planning programs
Contraceptive technology
Religious Values
Role of mass media
Industrial Revolution
Machines over more kids
Government Programs
Antinatalist Policies
One Child Policy (China)

50. Mortality
Infant mortality rate (IMR) annual # of deaths of infants under one year of age, compared with total live births (usually deaths per 1,000)
Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = __number of infant deaths during time period__ X 1,000
number of live births during time period

51. Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

52. Mortality Exceeds 100 in some LDC’s W. Europe < 5%
Generally a reflection of a country’s healthcare system

53. World Death Rates Infectious diseases Degenerative diseases
HIV/AIDS
SARS
Degenerative diseases
Obesity
Tobacco use
Epidemiological transition
Communicable diseases/pathogens in less developed countries
Degenerative diseases in more developed countries (obesity, heart disease, diabetes, cancer)

54. Adults and Children Living with HIV/AIDS, mid-2006

55. Life Expectancy
Average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels
W. Europe = late 70’s
Sub Saharan Africa = Late 30’s

56. Life Expectancy

57. The Demographic Transition Model

58. The Demographic Transition Model
Model that shows changes in natural increase, fertility, and mortality rates
A process with several stages

59. Demographic Transition Model
Changes in birth and death rate in a country are shaped by how a country changes from an agrarian to an industrial society. The DTM shows four (sometimes five) stages of population change that countries pass through as they modernize. Each stage lasts for a period of indeterminate length. The developed countries of the world pass through first, while the undeveloped areas are still passing through the early and middle stages.

60. The Demographic Transition Model
Every country in the world is in one of the stages
The process has a beginning, middle, and end
Once a country moves to a stage is does not revert back

61. Demographic Transition Model

62. The Demographic Transition
1. Low growth – 3. Moderate growth
2. High growth – 4. Low growth
Population pyramids
Age distribution
Sex ratio
Countries in different stages of demographic transition
Demographic transition and world population growth

63. Demographic Transition Model
Stage one
Crude birth/death rate high
Fragile population
Stage two
Lower death rates
Infant mortality rate
Natural increase high
Stage three
Indicative of richer developed countries
Higher standards of living/education
Stage Four
CBR and CDR are at equilibrium or almost =
ZPG= Zero Pop. Growth
Most Northern and Western Euro countries

64. Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
Most of human occupancy of Earth occurred in Stage 1
CBR and CDR would rise and fall but typically stayed at very high levels
Diseases and poor sanitation

65. Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
Therefore the natural increase was virtually zero
Population remained unchanged (around 500,000)

66. Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
Between 800 B.C. and 1750 AD population jumped from 5Million to 800 Million thanks to agricultural revolution

67. Stage/Phase 1: Low Growth (Pre-Industrial)
Humans remained at Stage 1 because of the unpredictability of the food supply
No Country is currently in Stage 1
Population Structure = Very young

68. Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 0
2,000 years ago at the dawn of the first millennium A.D. the world's population was around 300 million people.

69. Human Numbers Through Time: A.D. 1000
1,000 years later the population had risen by as little as 10 million. And well into the second millennium, it grew less than 0.1 percent each year. The numbers in Europe even fell in the 1300s—struck down by the Black Plague. But beginning in the late 18th century, the Industrial Revolution would raise living standards and spur growth.

70. Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrial)
Around 1750 the natural increase jumped from .05% to .5%
Caused by several countries moving into Stage 2

71. Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
In Stage 2 the CDR suddenly plummets (nutrition, sanitation, and medicine improve) while the CBR remains at roughly the same level (high)
Causes a High Natural Increase = rapid population growth as death rates fall faster than birth rates

72. Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
Cause of drop in CDR was the Industrial Revolution (made life better/easier)
1800 in Europe and N. America
Population Structure: Very young

73. Stage/Phase 2: High Growth (Beginning of Industrialism)
1950 in Africa, Asia, and Latin America
Other countries moved into Stage 2 quicker because of the late 20th Century Medical Revolutions that were implanted into the LDC’s

74. Human Numbers Through Time: 1800
800 years later the population had climbed to the landmark level of one billion people. Almost 65 percent of all people lived in Asia, 21 percent in a prospering Europe, and less than 1 percent in North America.

75. Stage/Phase 3: Moderate Growth (Industrialization Complete)
Movement from Stage 2 to Stage 3 occurs when the CBR begins to drop sharply
CDR is still dropping but not as sharply as CBR
Pop. Still grows – just at a modest rate
Europe and North America Enter 1st Half 20th Century
Asia, Latin America in recent years, Africa – Not yet
Population Structure: Young, with rising life expectancy

76. What causes the Crude Birth Rate to Drop in Stage 3?
Change in Social Customs
People choose to have fewer children as urbanization increases
Parents understand the decline in mortality rates
More service jobs, less farming jobs
In urban areas children are not economic assets
Urban homes are smaller

77. Stage/Phase 4: Low Growth (Post-Industrial)
CBR= low, but enough to keep the population stable. CDR= low and stable
CBR = CDR = Natural Increase of 0 (called zero population growth ZPG)
Can still occur when CBR is higher than CDR because some women die before reaching childbearing years
Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2.1 = ZPG
Population Structure: Balanced, with more aging

78. Demographic Transition Model
Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000.
All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century.
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).

79. Why such a low Fertility & Mortality Rate in Stage/Phase 4?
Women in Stage 4 work
Childcare is needed in order to work
Birth control
Upscale Activities
Mechanized food production, improved seeds, fertilizers, and farming techniques
Vaccines to prevent diseases, antibiotics, improved medical procedures
Advances in public sewer systems

80. Stage/Phase 4 in other Countries
Eastern Europe (especially Russia)
Negative Natural Increase
High Death Rates: poor pollution controls during communist control
Low Birth Rates
“Family Planning” remains from communism
In Russia women average 3.5 abortions
Pessimism about the future

81. Government Programs to Reduce Births
Concerns about overpopulation have led to anti-natalist policies, programs to decrease the number of births
China (1970’s): “Later Longer Fewer”
Encouraged parents to get married later in life, wait longer between kids, and have fewer children
Shorter bars for the and cohorts
One Child Policy (1979): Parents who had more than one child were subject to fines, although were exceptions for rural families
China’s fertility rate decreased
Reduced the number of adult workers…concern for economy
Unbalanced gender ratio
(2010) 118 males:100 females

83. Government Programs to Encourage Births
Pro-natalist policies, or designed to increase the fertility rate
France, Sweden, Japan
Provided paid time off from jobs held by mothers, free child care, and family discounts on government services

84. To Review…

85. Stage One Pre-industrial
CBR and CDR high and fluctuate according to natural events and disasters.
Population is a constant and young pop.

86. Stage Two
Death rates drop… improvements in food supply, sanitation, etc.
Birth rates do not drop… causes an imbalance so there is a large increase in population.

87. Stage Three Birth rates fall Population growth begins to level off
Access to contraception
Increase in wages
Urbanization
Move away from subsistence agriculture.
Education of women
Population growth begins to level off

88. Stage Four Low birth AND low death.
Birth rates may drop below replacement levels (Japan and Italy) which may lead to negative population growth.
Large group born during stage 2 ages… creates a burden on the smaller working population.

89. Soooo…. A cycle, in a way, from 1 to 4
Difference= in Stage 1 CBR and CDR are high… in Stage 4 they are low.
Difference= total population of a country is higher in Stage 4 than in Stage 1

90. The Demographic Transition in England
Now Stage 4
Historically
Stage 1 – Low growth until 1750
Stage 2 – High growth
Stage 3 – Moderate growth 1880-early 1970’s
Stage 4 – Early 1970’s-present. Long time below the 2.1 Total Fertility Rate needed for replacement.

91. Problems with the Demographic Transition Model
based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization
many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth
on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3
it is not an exact science!!!!!!!!

92. Remember… Demographic Transition is not only dependent on CBR and CDR but also on in and out migration!!!!

93. Epidemiological Transition Model
Because the world did not develop industrially and economically at the same pace in all areas, there is a large discrepancy in the types of diseases found across the world.

94. Epidemiologic Transition
Stage 1
Infectious and parasitic disease.
“natural checks” according to Malthus
Accidents, animal attacks, or human conflicts
High death rate and low life expectancy
Stage 2
# of pandemics decline as result of improved sanitation, nutrition and medicine
Decreasing death rate and increasing life exp.
Stage 3
Diseases associated w/aging, such as heart and liver disease, increase
Death rate stabilizes at low level and life expectancy increase
Stage 4
Extension of Stage 3, but medical procedures delay onset of these diseases
Alzheimer’s and dementia increase
Stage 5
Reemerging infectious and parasitic diseases
Life exp. decreases

96. Each group will be given one stage of the DTM
Each group will be given one stage of the DTM. - Create a poster illustrating your stage.
- Write bullet points of the important facts about the stage: at least 4, in your own words!!!
- You will present your posters to the class.

97. - Next, create your own flashcard of the DTM.
- A labeled illustration should go on the front, and an explanation should go on the back.
- When I decide your flashcard is worthy of an A+, I will laminate it for you; you can study and use this for the rest of the year.

99. Warm-Up How do the crude birth rate & the fertility rate differ?
Why do some analysts criticize the applicability of the DTM to all parts of the world?

100. Warm-Up:
What types of geographic questions can be answered by studying a population’s age and gender composition?

101. Population Pyramids & the Demographic Transition Model

102. Population in Demographic Transition
A country’s stage in Demographic Transition gives it a distinctive population structure
The Demographic Transition Influences population structure in 2 main ways:
% of population in Each Age Group
Distribution of males and females
We can visually see these influences by using Population Pyramids

104. Population Pyramid (Age/Sex Pyramid)
Bar graphs displayed both horizontally and vertically showing variations within particular subgroups or a population with respect to certain descriptive aspects, such as birth or deaths
Population pyramids are typically a representation of the population based on its composition according to sex and age

105. Characteristics of Population Pyramids
Males = left side of the vertical axis
Females = right side of the vertical axis
Age = order sequentially with youngest at the bottom and oldest at the top
Pyramid allows demographers to identify changes in the age sex composition of a population

106. Population Pyramid Developed Countries
A country in stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model
Large number of “older people”
Smaller % of young people

107. Population Pyramid Developing Countries
A country in stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model
Large number of young people and a smaller older population
A wide base and tapering upwards says population is growing

108. Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

109. Moderate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

110. Age Distribution
Dependency Ratio: number of people who are too young or too old to work, compared to the number of people in their productive years

111. Sex Ratio
Sex Ratio: number of males per hundred females
In general more males are born than females
Males have higher death rates

112. 3 age groupings 0-14 = Dependents 15-64 = Workers 64+ = Dependents
Stage 2 Countries = 1:1
Stage 4 Countries = 1:2

113. Sex Ratio
Europe and North America = 95:100
Rest of World = 102:100

114. Developing Countries
Have large % of young people –where males generally outnumber females
Lower % of older people – where females are typically more numerous
High immigration = more males

120. Baby boomers are ages 50-68
An echo appears in the cohort
Baby boomers are ages 12-30
No echo is apparent
Once hostilities end and peace continues, the birth rate often spikes, an increase known as the baby boom
In the United States, the baby boom lasted from
Once the boom ends, births are lower for a few years, known as a baby bust
With a high number of boomers having children, there can be a significant increase in births that reflects an earlier baby boom, known as an echo

121. Population Shift

122. Anomalies in Population Pyramids
If bars are longer for people ages than for people younger or older?
A small city has a university?
Shortage of school fundings cause families to move away when they have children?
If bars are longer for ages than for children?
Economic crisis causes few kids?
Government anti-natalist policy?
Epidemic causes infants to die?
Bars are longer of people over 65 years old?
Community in warm climate?
Lack of jobs causes younger people to move?
Bars are longer for males than females?
Oil boom attracting men?

123. An Aging World Discussion
What are the implications of an aging population for:
The U.S. housing market?
Social security and pension funds?
Public financing of colleges and universities?
Global migration flows?

124. Power of the Pyramids
Each person in your group will complete 2 country population pyramids. When you are complete, analyze the pyramids together as a group and answer the discussion questions.
As a group you will answer the discussion questions together, based on the graphs each of each group member created.
Be ready to go over your answers as a class!
If you finish early, work on your…DTM flashcard, vocabulary, reading guides, etc…
You will be given data for several countries, as well as a template for graphing the data
The figures on the data sheet represent the population (in thousands) of each age group within each gender for each particular country. In order to construct the country’s pyramid, you must first calculate the percentage of the population of each gender in each age group.
Cohort # ÷Total population # = # x 100 = % Ex. 10,635,000÷301,140,000 = .035 or 3.5%
Complete the calculations for each cohort, recording your percentages on the data sheet
Use the population pyramid data sheet to graph the percentage data for your countries.
Answer the discussion questions once you have graphed your pyramids correctly.

125. Warm up
2. Which is most likely a bigger concern for the country represented in the pyramid than for countries in other DTM stages?
A. A greater demand on gov. spending on pensions and healthcare for the elderly.
B. A greater demand for gov. spending on education and daycare of children.
C. A higher rate of unemployment among people of working age.
D. A higher rate of emigration by people in search of jobs.
E. A faster overall population growth than in previous decades.
In what stage of the DTM does the population pyramid represent?
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5

126. OVERPOPULATION!!!

127. Overpopulation
When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

129. Thomas Malthus An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)
Earth’s population was growing much more rapidly than the Earth’s food supply

130. Thomas Malthus on Population
Malthus predicted:
population would outrun food supply
decrease in food per person.
Assumptions
Populations grow exponentially.
Population grows by the multiplication of human beings
Food supply grows arithmetically.
Food production grows by the addition of more acreage into cultivation
Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

131. Reason… Population increases exponentially
Food Supply increases arithmetically

132. Neo-Malthusians
Global overpopulation is a serious problem and an even greater threat for the future
Will lead to depletion of nonrenewable resources (petroleum, metals, air pollution, water pollution, shortage of food) which could bring a catastrophe

133. Karl Marx
The problem was not the population growth rates, but the unequal distribution of resources and wages

134. Ester Boserup
The overpopulation problem could be solved by increasing the number of subsistence farmers.

135. Criticism of Malthus
Did not count for ability of people to increase food production dramatically with technological advances
Didn’t forsee that pop growth would slow down with effective contraceptive, the changing role of women, and people’s reproductive decisions
Did not recognize famine is usually related to unequal distribution of food, not lack of food.

136. Malthus and Reality
Last half-century has not supported Malthus’ s theory