1. The Year of Polar Prediction
CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR SORP meeting
ESA, Frascati
24-25 September 2015
The Year of Polar Prediction
François Massonnet
For those who don’t know me, and I assume that most of you don’t, I’m a Belgian post-doc but I managed to convince my employer that it’d be good if I could spend some time abroad. I’m now living in Barcelona – this could seem to be the strangest place to do polar research but in fact our group is growing. Recently I was contacted by Jenny from CliC to serve as a CliC fellow and propose concrete interactions of CliC with a major event that will take place sooner than you think called “the Year of Polar prediction”.
Now before diving into too much details I have to say that I like this position at the interface between two projects but I have to say it takes time, and much more time than I had anticipated. The first reason for that can be summarized in one word:
T. Fichefet
H. Goosse
F. Doblas-Reyes
J. Baeseman
A. Bradley
T. Jung

2. Some genealogy in the jungle of acronyms
Research programme
Some genealogy in the jungle of acronyms
Project
Committee
Initiative
Working group/Panel
WMO
Endorsed/Sponsored
WWRP
WCRP
HIP
S2S
PPP
* Acronym. You can be quickly lost if you don’t speak this language and in fact you would need three PhDs in astrophysics to master all these acronyms, and I can tell you that I’m here only showing the visible part of iceberg – the total can easily extend beyond 100.
* So the year of polar prediction is first and foremost an initiative from the Polar Prediction Project, which itself depends on the World Weather Research Programme. It’s important to keep in mind that the project has a strong weather component, that people mostly think « operationally » and very regionally, on time scales of hours to days. Now the YOPP was also endorsed by the Polar Climate Predictability initiative to also give it a climate dimension.
* The SORP definitely lies on the climate side and has been endorsed by several projects.
The second thing that takes time to process for a newbie like me is how these projects are interconnected, where money flows and where it doesn’t, what names are associated
PCPI
CLIVAR
CliC
GEWEX
SPARC
YOPP
APECS
IACS
SORP
ASPeCT
Global Panels (4)
ICSU
SCAR
SCOR
SOOS

3. Some genealogy in the jungle of acronyms
Research programme
Some genealogy in the jungle of acronyms
Project
Committee
Initiative
Working group/Panel
WMO
Endorsed/Sponsored
WWRP
WCRP
HIP
S2S
PPP
*The link between YOPP and SORP might not seem obvious at first sight, because they’re only cousins through the common ancestor WCRP, if I may say, but in fact looking at the general terms of both you start to realize that many overlapping activities exist between these two groups
* All this might not sound new to you, but at least it does for me. And hopefully it makes everyone’s ideas a bit clearer.
PCPI
CLIVAR
CliC
GEWEX
SPARC
YOPP
APECS
IACS
SORP
ASPeCT
Global Panels (4)
ICSU
SCAR
SCOR
SOOS

4.
OK now what is this year of polar prediction.

5. 2017-2019 www.polarprediction.net/yopp
: the bulk. Three phases. Preparatory phase and consolidation phase

6.
Bipolar

7. Bipolar 2017-2019 26 partners www.polarprediction.net/yopp
Partners: international programmes, institutions, space agencies, funding agencies.
The Year of Polar Prediction’s central objective is to enable a significant improvement in bi-polar prediction activities and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive activities involving modelling groups, observationalists and actors outside the realm of scientific research.

8. Bipolar 2017-2019 26 partners www.polarprediction.net/yopp Modelling
: the bulk. Preparatory phase and consolidation phase
Funding
Partners: international programmes, institutions, space agencies
The Year of Polar Prediction’s central objective is to enable a significant improvement in bi-polar prediction activities and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive activities involving modelling groups, observationalists and actors outside the realm of scientific research.
Modelling
Observations
Services

9. Bipolar 2017-2019 26 partners www.polarprediction.net/yopp Modelling
: the bulk. Preparatory phase and consolidation phase
Funding
Partners: international programmes, institutions, space agencies
The Year of Polar Prediction’s central objective is to enable a significant improvement in bi-polar prediction activities and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive activities involving modelling groups, observationalists and actors outside the realm of scientific research.
Modelling
Observations
Services
Processes
Data assimilation
More data
User aspects
Predictability
Verification
Better data
Training
Linkages
Data legacy
Cost-effective data
Outreach

10. SOOS and SORP have already proposed contributions to YOPP
Air-Sea Fluxes Task Team
Satellite Data Requirements
Under Ice Observations
Regional and Capability Working groups
Southern Ocean Field Project Portal
Data management activities
Louise Newman et al.

11. Key outcomes of the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
The existing implementation plan is already a very good basis
An updated version will be available by Dec. 2015
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
IOPs: SH: key period for improving predictions because of logistics, tourism, research capacity easier in summer. NH: longer (june-sep and jan-mar)
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter

12. Key outcomes of the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
The existing implementation plan is already a very good basis
An updated version will be available by Dec. 2015
The visibility of Southern Hemisphere activities has to be increased
Dave Bromwich will lead a YOPP-Southern Hemisphere planning group.
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
IOPs: SH: key period for improving predictions because of logistics, tourism, research capacity easier in summer. NH: longer (june-sep and jan-mar)
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter

13. Key outcomes of the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
The existing implementation plan is already a very good basis
An updated version will be available by Dec. 2015
The visibility of Southern Hemisphere activities has to be increased
Dave Bromwich will lead a YOPP-Southern Hemisphere planning group.
Concrete commitments were taken
Involvement of 2 CliC fellows, data portal hosted by Met Norway, NCAR-AMPS high-resolution support for field campaigns
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
IOPs: SH: key period for improving predictions because of logistics, tourism, research capacity easier in summer. NH: longer (june-sep and jan-mar)
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter

14. Key outcomes of the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
The existing implementation plan is already a very good basis
An updated version will be available by Dec. 2015
The visibility of Southern Hemisphere activities has to be increased
Dave Bromwich will lead a YOPP-Southern Hemisphere planning group.
Concrete commitments were taken
Involvement of 2 CliC fellows, data portal hosted by Met Norway, NCAR-AMPS high-resolution support for field campaigns
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
IOPs: SH: key period for improving predictions because of logistics, tourism, research capacity easier in summer. NH: longer (june-sep and jan-mar)
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter
Agreement on Intensive Observing Periods
SH: December 2018-February 2019 (lead by D. Bromwich)
This is a proposition. SCAR, SCOR, SOOS and SORP have to coordinate and comment

15. Key outcomes of the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
The existing implementation plan is already a very good basis
An updated version will be available by Dec. 2015
The visibility of Southern Hemisphere activities has to be increased
Dave Bromwich will lead a YOPP-Southern Hemisphere planning group.
Concrete commitments were taken
Involvement of 2 CliC fellows, data portal hosted by Met Norway, NCAR-AMPS high-resolution support for field campaigns
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
AMPS: Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System
IOPs: SH: key period for improving predictions because of logistics, tourism, research capacity easier in summer. NH: longer (june-sep and jan-mar)
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter
Agreement on Intensive Observing Periods
SH: December 2018-February 2019 (lead by D. Bromwich)
This is a proposition. SCAR, SCOR, SOOS and SORP have to coordinate and comment
YOPP will soon proceed with endorsement of partners

16. Key recommendations from the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
Modelling
Put more emphasis on microphysics and radiation, archive model tendencies during Intensive Observing Periods, test sea ice rheologies
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter

17. Key recommendations from the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
Modelling
Put more emphasis on microphysics and radiation, archive model tendencies during Intensive Observing Periods, test sea ice rheologies
Data assimilation
Get to know your model error structure, be prepared to assimilate non-conventional data, design data-denial experiments.
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter

18. Key recommendations from the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
Modelling
Put more emphasis on microphysics and radiation, archive model tendencies during Intensive Observing Periods, test sea ice rheologies
Data assimilation
Get to know your model error structure, be prepared to assimilate non-conventional data, design data-denial experiments.
Observations
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter
Coordination between SOOS, SORP, SCAR and SCOR is key for achieving successful intensive observation periods,

19. Key recommendations from the YOPP summit (15-16 July 2015)
Modelling
Put more emphasis on microphysics and radiation, archive model tendencies during Intensive Observing Periods, test sea ice rheologies
Data assimilation
Get to know your model error structure, be prepared to assimilate non-conventional data, design data-denial experiments.
Observations
Endorsement: ClIC and SORP likely to be endorsed given contributions and position.
So very important: Dave is the first person to talk to from now on.
Twitter: we live at the age where information travels faster than the time to process it, necessary to filter
Coordination between SOOS, SORP, SCAR and SCOR is key for achieving successful intensive observation periods,
Outreach
Tweet, speak, shout, yell. Make yourself heard. Stay tuned #polarpredict

20. Four keywords to not loose focus
Prediction
YOPP is first designed to improve forecast capabilities
Intensive
YOPP is short. Things will go like a charm if everything is planned
Arctic-biased
It’s very easy to get ourselves lost in this jungle of acronyms, projects, names and contributions.
1/ YOPP is first and foremost about prediction, and prediction at short time scales (hrs to a few months). Process understanding is included, but not for itself. Same thing with state estimation; seen as potential to initialize system. It’s also to understand in the case of the Southern Ocean why predictions at short time scales is so important for us.
2/ 2017 is not a long-term milestone. It’s already in 18 months.
3/ Make your voice heard.
4/ not funded. Don’t oversell. Go to the point. You won’t receive extra funding.
YOPP reflects current polar research. Make yourself heard!
Partner
YOPP rests on concrete partner commitments

21. Thank you @FMassonnet www.climate.be/u/fmasson