1. The Tools for Environmental Sustainability in the UK Keith Barnham Physics Department, Imperial College London Oxford Research Group

2. Distributed Generation is coming faster than the Government wants Energy White Paper belatedly recognises that Distributed Generation (DG) can make an important contribution to energy security Small-scale wind and photovoltaics (PV) alone show DG could contribute much faster than the government thinks/wants Why isnt the government supporting DG as much as it could?

3. Energy Review ignored evidence from ORG and BWEA on Wind Capacity Germany ~ 9 yrs ahead 10 x capacity of UK If in the next 9 yrs UK follows the last 9 nine yrs in Germany the UK will have 24 GW in 2020 The UK has a better wind resource than Germany BWEA (310 companies) prediction same at 2020 K.W.J.Barnham and M. Mazzer New Statesman Supplement, May 15th, 2006. < UK D > BNFL ORG – Energy Review BWEA – Energy Review Wind O Marine O UK nuclear D > < UK ^ BNFL

4. Energy Review ignored PV potential < UK D > ^ BNFL If UK follows German trend of last 4 years => 6 GW PV by 2018 Japan NEDO planning 100 GW of PV for 2030 as feed-in tariffs fall Exponential growth – typical of electronic consumer goods German exponential growth continues as feed-in tariffs fall (214,000 new jobs) White Paper hard to draw firm conclusions on effectiveness of feed-in tariffs UK nuclear K.W.J.Barnham, M.Mazzer, B.Clive, Nature Materials, 5, 161 (2006)

5. Smart Windows with 3 rd Generation cells - helping exponential PV Growth continue 63% of electricity in UK used in buildings Sunlight on buildings ~ 7x electricity consumption in the buildings 14% efficient 2 nd Generation cells on all S-facing walls => 3x nuclear contribution Smart windows Blinds = lenses Focus on small highly efficient cells No transmission of direct sunlight Reduce glare and a/c requirement Max diffuse sunlight - for illumination No need for lights when blinds working (2 – 3) x power from Silicon cells Electricity at time of peak demand Imperial College London

6. Energy Review – need 6 GW of New Nuclear Build to plug 25 GW energy gap in 2025?? Sum of Wind and PV assuming follow German example Marine (3 GW BWEA), biomass, energy efficiency, CHP will also make major contribution 4 GW nuclear new build 2020 (BNFL) irrelevant Government proposes that evidence on the need for nuclear will not be allowed at future public inquiries

7. Contrast DG with Central Generation – e.g. problems with New Nuclear Build New nuclear - too little too late – linear turn on at best DG can grow exponentially e.g.PV in Germany/Japan Wind/PV can do the job with no fuel/minimum waste Nuclear not low carbon – will get worse > 2030 Nuclear facilities potential terrorist targets We still dont know how or where to store the waste for > 1M years (White paper many years) Who will invest in nuclear given many homes, businesses self sufficient by 2020 Historic waste costs ~ 4 x new build costs

8. Conclusions and Discussion Points DG and wind and PV in particular would expand faster in UK with feed-in tariffs Marine, biomass, energy efficiency, CHP could also all make big contributions Why does government dismiss feed-in tariffs which have put German PV 100x ahead? Why is the government so keen on nuclear? Why are Germany and Japan 10 years ahead of the UK in exploiting renewables?