1. Human Impact on Ecosystems
Climate Change:
Predicting Adaptability

2. The Greenhouse Effect

3. Human contributions to heat-trapping greenhouse gases

4. What Do The Climate Models Indicate?
Michigan 2030: Ohio summers Michigan 2095: Arkansas summers, Ohio winters
PREDICTED CHANGE
What Do The Climate Models Indicate? 1 2 3
4Two of the nation’s most sophisticated climate models, running on some of the world’s most powerful computers, give similar results.

5. Great Lakes ecosystem impacts Kirtland’s warbler, Dendroica kirtlandii
One of the first species protected by ESA in 1967
50 years of conservation efforts
167 singing males counted 1987
1,813 singing males counted 2010

6. Kirtland’s warbler specific habitat requirements
90% nest in pine barrens near Au Sable River
Build ground nests on porous glacial deposition sand up to 1000’ deep that protects from flooding
Nest under low branches of young, post-fire jack pines, Pinus Banksiana

7. Jack pine, Pinus banksiana temperature-sensitive species
Range has shifted northward in response to rising global temperatures
Southern edge of range overlaps Grayling sands of north central lower peninsula of Michigan

8. Question
Will the recovering endangered species Kirtland’s warbler, Dendroica kirtlandii, be able to adapt to rising global temperatures?
Small group research
Class discussion