1. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution Workshop on Review and Assessment of European Air Pollution Policies Gothenburg, 25-27 October 2005 Matti Vainio Peter Gammeltoft and Duncan Johnstone Peter Gammeltoft and Duncan Johnstone Clean Air & Transport Unit DG Environment

2. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Existing air pollution policy l AQ framework and daughter directives l National Emission Ceilings (NEC) directive m Gothenburg Protocol of the Convention of Long- Range Transboundary Air Pollution l Vehicle emission and fuel quality standards (Auto Oil programmes) l Stationary sources (LCP, fuel distribution, IPPC…) l Products (e.g. solvents, paints)

3. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Why Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) programme? l Continuing problems with air pollution, especially particulate matter and ozone l Increasing evidence of adverse health effects l Need to update and improve projections and modelling l Difficulty in achieving AQ limit values (especially NO 2 and particulate matter)

4. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe l Thematic Strategy on air pollution to be adopted in three years l Using a knowledge-based approach l Objectives: l Achieving levels of air quality that do not give rise to significant negative impacts on and risks to human health and the environment; (Art 7.1. of 6 th EAP) l No exceedence of critical loads and levels for acidification or eutrophication 6 th Environment Action Programme (EAP) of July 2002 requires

5. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Air pollution relevant objectives for environment and health l Climate change and air pollution measures should be compatible. l Improve the monitoring and assessment of air quality l Improve the provision of information to the public, including by indicators l Adopt appropriate measures concerning ground-level ozone and particulates l Play a leading role in the negotiations on and strengthening the links and interactions with international processes contributing to clean air in Europe l Develop Community instruments to reduce emissions Art 7 (f) of 6EAP

6. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Thematic Strategy is set to l Strengthen a coherent and integrated policy on air pollution to cover priorities for further actions, m the review and updating where appropriate of air quality standards and m national emission ceilings m with a view to reach the long term objective of no exceedence of critical loads and levels and m the development of better systems for gathering information, modelling and forecasting; l Thus, it will set goals and priorities for action, and will be accompanied by or followed by legislative proposals, as appropriate Art 7 (f) of 6EAP

7. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Stakeholder consultation in CAFE l CAFE Steering Group l WG on Implementation l WG on Particulate Matter l WG on Target Setting and Policy Assessment l Ad hoc consultations m Agricultural projections, CBA methodology, transport sector (TREMOVE model) projections m Workshops (e.g. Gothenburg) l Peer review of key models

8. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe 3 pillars of CAFE l Scientific advice m WHO Systematic review of Air Quality guidelines m Advice of CLRTAP WG Effects on ecosystems l Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) m Least cost solutions for multi-pollutant/multi-effects (human health and environment) l Cost-Benefit Analysis m Peer-reviewed methodology based on regional scale modelling of pollutant dispersion

9. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Emissions, health and environment impacts up to 2020 l Most emissions are decreasing though there are exceptions (e.g. ammonia) l Air quality is improving for all pollutants m But still significant problems to be addressed (e.g. particulate matter & ozone) l Impacts on the natural environment (acidification & damage from ozone) are reducing m But still significant problems, particularly eutrophication. l Thematic Strategy will be mainly about making existing policies work better with some new measures as well.

10. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Air quality problems l WHO (Global burden of disease): m About 100,000 people die every year prematurely due to exposure to particulate matter in Europe l WHO Systematic review: m Currently PM shortens life expectancy by about 9 months in the EU, in some Member States up to 1 to 2 years m No safe level for human exposure to particulate matter in air m Smaller particles may be more damaging l WHO/UNECE Task Force on Health: m No threshold for ozone effects on humans but analysis starts from background levels in air

11. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Anthropogenic contribution to PM 2.5 2000 2010 2020 Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

12. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Ecosystems impacts up to 2020 l Acidification of ecosystems is decreasing r But still two thirds of lakes in Southern Scandinavia at risk. r About half of the forest plots in the European-wide survey for forests (EU Forest Focus) are at risk. l Eutrophication of ecosystems widespread r Half of ecosystems with unsustainable levels of nitrogen deposition. l Ozone exposure is reducing as peak levels decrease r But significant areas of European forests at risk from ozone exposure at levels up to six times the safe level.

13. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Acid deposition to forests in 2020 Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acidification of forests continues … Source: CAFE Baseline, RAINS (2004)

14. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies 2000 2010 2020 Source: CAFE Baseline, RAINS (2004)

15. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Conclusions l With decreasing pollution, adverse impacts are expected to decline in the future l However, problems will not be entirely resolved: m PM remains serious (about 5 months life expectancy loss in 2020) m Ozone: r Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several thousands cases in 2020) r Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of long-term sustainable levels will prevail m Acidification of ecosystems will not disappear, mainly due to ammonia m Eutrophication remains unresolved again because of ammonia emissions

16. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Some possible measures l Streamlining current Air Quality legislation m Consolidation & simplification of ambient air quality legislation (e.g. reporting) m Improving implementation by Member States m Introducing a air quality limit value for PM 2.5 m Revising the NEC directive l Uptated vehicle emissions standards (Euro 5 and 6) m Especially to reduce particulate matter l Small scale combustion m Product emission standards and Integrated Pollution Prevention & Control to reduce emissions of particulate matter & nitrogen oxides l Integration measures m Agriculture (IPPC, less fertiliser, animal waste disposal etc.) m Transport (charging & other measures to reduce pollution) m Ship emissions (more action in the IMO for cleaner engines)

17. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Next steps l On-going consultation on optimisation scenarios (WG Target Setting and Policy Assessment, CAFE Steering Group plus other events (eg. Gothenburg)) l Discuss outline of Thematic Strategy in CAFE Steering Group (November 2004) l Public consultation (December 2004 - January 2005) including possibly targeted consultation l Discuss content of Thematic Strategy in CAFE Steering Group (February 2005) l Send for Inter-Service consultation 1 April 2005 l Commission adoption in May 2005 m Presentation in the CAFE Steering Group in May 2005

18. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Questions for working groups l Given WHO and WG PM advice what ambient concentration of PM2.5 should be proposed? m WG PM suggested 12-20 micrograms per cubic meter m US standard is 15 micrograms per cubic meter l Assuming PM 2.5 becomes the focus of attention, what should we do about PM 10 ? m Also, should changes be proposed in monitoring requirements? l What about supersite monitoring of PM? l Given WHO advice m Keep NO 2 concentration limit value untouched? m Any changes to 3rd Daughter Directive on Ozone? l Main research needs for the period 2005-2015 in atmospheric pollution in the EU and in the world? l Which measures should we specifically look into? Why? m Ideas for reducing ship emissions?

19. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Questions (cont.) l NEC: How to reduce ammonia emissions, which is becoming a major source of impacts in acidification and eutrophication? l Pros and cons of introducing a ceiling for primary PM 2.5 ? l Given that hemispheric pollution is becoming increasingly important, what would be the pros and cons of introducing a NEC ceiling for methane? l What, if anything, should we say about the instititutional framework to control transboundary air pollution given: m increased contribution of hemispheric background m enlargement of the EU l We are planning to hold a specific web-based consultation m What would be your three favourite questions? l Using economic instruments, like (national) taxation/charging or (either national or EU-level) emission trading m Should the Thematic Strategy encourage, discourage or be neutral?

20. European Commission - DG Environment Clean Air for Europe Advertisement Conference on Policy Instruments to Reduce Air Pollution Brussels, 11-12 November 2004 Organised by European Commission and the Network of Experts in Benefits and Economic Instruments of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Look at the application form http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/nebei_workshop/index.htm