1. Environmental Surprise

2. Environmental Surprise
Three elements of environmental surprise
Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash.
Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.”
Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.”

3. Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know
Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash.
Was this an element in Hurricane Pam?
Yes No
Do not know

4. Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know
Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.”
Was this an element in Hurricane Pam?
Yes No
Do not know

5. Hurricane Pam Was this an element in Hurricane Pam? Yes No Do not know
Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.”
Was this an element in Hurricane Pam?
Yes No
Do not know

6. Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No
Discontinuity: “An abrupt shift in a trend or a previously stable state.” It is the time scale which matters. An example is that overfishing can result, not in gradual decline, but in a population crash.
Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina?
Yes No
Do not know

7. Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No
Synergism: “…several phenomena combine to produce an effect that is greater than would have been expected from adding up their effects taken separately.”
Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina?
Yes No
Do not know

8. Hurricane Katrina Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina? Yes No
Unnoticed Trend: The third element of environmental surprise is an unnoticed trend: “An unnoticed trend even if it produces no discontinuities or synergisms, may still do a surprising amount of damage before it is discovered.”
Was this an element in Hurricane Katrina?
Yes No
Do not know