1. Food System and Adapting to Global Environmental Changes in
RTB basin Nepal
Ajaya Dixit, Madhukar Upadhya and Kanchan Mani Dixit
Nepal Water Conservation Foundation
New Delhi 2009

2. RTB Basin in Indo-Ganga Plains (IGP III)
Study Districts
Kapilvastu
Rupandehi
Nawalparasi

3. Characteristics Major crops grown
Paddy is the major crops grown by about 98 percent of the households.
60 per cent of land has seasonal irrigation facility
Use of technology
Farming tools and technology are mostly traditional.
Only 10 percent farmers use modern methods of farming.
Employment
About two third dependent on agriculture
Rest on business, service and wage labor
Low in industries
Monsoon flood is recurrent
Increasing trend of out-migration
Ponds and wetland are gradually being encroached

4. Food System Activities
Producing Food
Mostly rice, maize and little wheat
Processing and packaging
Local level activity, provided by Nepali and (dominantly) Indian traders.
Distributing and retailing food
Mostly local traders and truck owners. Food Corporation of Nepal (FoN) does distribute food but inefficient.
Consuming food
Mostly at household level , festivals. In restaurant in municipalities for local gentry and development agents in transit .

5. Climate Change Impact Science Implications For NRM Untimely rainfall
Heavy precipitation events, which are very likely to increase frequency will augment flood risk (IPCC, 2007).
Downscaling study in RTB basin suggests climate will become more erratic as more heat is pumped into atmosphere (Stapleton, 2009).
Implications For NRM
Untimely rainfall
Short term heavy rainfall
Increasing magnitude and frequency of floods in rivers: inundation, bank cutting, sand casting
Flash floods
Deficit rainfall: Frequent droughts
Rise in temperature will affect food production, diseases, debilitate health.

6. Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Food utilization)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity to GEC stress
Coping capacity
Overall vulnerability
Nutritional value
protein (pulses, milk)
Water shortages, changing rainfall time
High
Less land will be allocated for pulses when rice production declines.
Low
Switching to low water demanding pulses is difficult because of weak agriculture services.
Less land is allocated for pulses
Social value
Paddy and lentil
Water shortages
Food other than rice (e.g. maize) is least preferred.
Medium
Some ability to purchase
Increasing
Food safety
Aflotoxin
Increased humidity and fog
Rudimentary storage and handling
Low because of lack of appropriate storage
Likely to increase

7. Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Access)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress
Coping capacity
Overall vulnerability
Affordability
Floods, drought, and fog (cold waves)
High
Food prices increase during floods, prolonged drought, and cold waves
Low
Low income
capacity to adapt to floods, and fog period
Increasing cost of irrigation
likely to decrease with access to information and communication (eg. weather forecasting)
Allocation
(intra community)
Floods
Disruption of distribution systems
Medium
Expanding markets
increasing role of NGOs to force government to make food available
Preference
(rice)
Changing rainfall pattern (time, intensity, duration).
Delay in planting reduces paddy yield
Some ability to purchase
Likely to increase

8. Vulnerability Assessment of Food System (Availability)
Food security determinants
GEC stress to which exposed
Sensitivity of determinant to GEC stress
Coping capacity
Overall vulnerability
Production
Rice and maize
Floods and excess rain, delayed or deficit monsoon rain
High
Land and crop are washed away, excess rain reduces maize production
Low
capacity to adapt to floods, and Increasing cost of irrigation
(but likely to decrease with access to information and communication eg. weather forecasting)
Distribution
Transport of food.
Floods
Damages to roads, bridges and trails.
Lack of appropriate storage, low income .
Rise in transport cost, increasing cost re-building and maintaining infrastructures.
Exchange
during monsoon
Wage earning and distribution declines during floods
Medium
Limited capacity to store food
Likely to increase

9. Movement of food items in out of RTB Basin
Settlements along southern border import food from India also export. Import volume far exceeds export.

10. Actors Activities Outcomes
Producing
State
Access
Affordability
Allocation
Preference
Private
sectors
Processing/
packaging
Availability
Production
Distribution
Exchange
NGO/
civil society
Distributing
retailing/selling
Utilization
Nutritional value
Social values
Food safety
Householder/ farmers
Consuming

11. Our approach
Adaptation is more than coping. In a well adapted system people and the environmental and other features they value should do better
Baseline survival is not the objective but continued development and improvement in the quality of life is
Adaptation is ability to shift strategies
And such strategies should not lead to ill effects or no mal-adaptation (socio-economic or environmental)

12. We need to make distinctions
Planned adaptation:
Proactive identification of climate impacts and taking specific, often carefully targeted, steps to respond.
Most government and donor interventions focus on planned adaptation
Attribution is essential
Autonomous Adaptation:
What populations “do” in response to the selective pressures and opportunities they face.
Most “action” are likely to be autonomous
Larger systems help adaptation

13. Conceptualizing Adaptation Framework
Institutions, organizations
and networks
Systems:
Physical, Social, and Knowledge: early warning
Core Systems:
Water
Food
Energy
Ecosystems
Governance
Social Protection
Adapted from GAT (2008)

14. Research issues identified in RTB Basin
The vulnerability of distributional system to GECs and on food system outcomes.
Cross country comparison of policies (India; Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Nepal) as they relate to food system outcomes.
Early warning system combining modern and locally based
mechanism.
Identify barriers to successful health related planned and
autonomous adaptation to GEC stressor.
Understanding the role migration and factors driving it has to identify tangible both course of action for vulnerable communities and managing other impacts of GECs.
The role of conserving and expanding wetlands to serve as flood and storm buffers as well as food production and source of livelihood for marginalized communities.

15. Issues Identified for further broad research
Improved strategies for decision-making in an uncertain future.
The strength and impediments for effective horizontal linkages between different agencies, and vertically between local, meso, and national levels to enable flexible policies and practice to enable adaptation.
How do link between penetration of basic energy, water, transport, finance, health, communication and other infrastructure, diversification of livelihoods and the ability to shift strategies as condition changes contribute to household food security.

16. Thank You