1. Higher Education Forecast:
February 5, 2019 | Session ID# T1.10
Higher Education Forecast:
Changing Demographics and Demand
Angela Brockelsby, Associate Vice Provost, NC State University
Kim Reid, Principal Analyst, Eduventures Research | ACT | NRCCUA

3. Factors Affecting Demographics and Demand
“Demographic, Economic and Cultural Disruption”
”Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008
Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups
College going rates for different populations and the value of a college education
Recruiting the Coming Demography
Insights and student mindsets
Findings from the Prospective Student Survey
Strategies for reaching and connecting with access populations
Demography is not destiny

4. “Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2018). National Vital Statistics Reports Volume 67, Number 8
Source: Pew Research Center. (2011) In a Down Economy, Fewer Births

5. “Birth Dearth” and the Great Recession of 2008
Source: Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2016) Knocking at the College Door
Source: Grawe, N. (2018). Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.

6. Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups
Source: Pew Research Center - Hispanic Trends. (2018). Facts on U.S. Immigrants, 2016.

7. Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups
Source: Pew Research Center (2018). Education levels of U.S. immigrants are on the rise.
Source: Pew Research Center (2018). Key Findings about U.S. Immigrants.

8. Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups
Source: Frey, W. (2018). Diversity Explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America.

9. Immigration, interstate migration and fertility differences across demographic groups
Source: Frey, W. (2018). Diversity Explosion: How new racial demographics are remaking America.

10. What does this mean for universities and colleges?
2-Year
4-Year Regional
4-Year National
4-Year Elite
Source: Grawe, N. (2018). Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education.

11. Recruiting the Coming Demography

12. Demographic Shift Happening and Will Continue
Change in Full-Time First-Time Undergraduate Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity
Mention the shift in Pell Eligible as well – Pull the number from Ipeds
Mention the shift in first gen from Eduventures data? Is their a shift seen in our data?
*American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander less than 1% change

13. Access Populations in Prospective Student Survey
43%
44%
41%
18%
10% 6% 7% 8% 9%
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

14. First Words – Non-Access Students
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

15. First Words – All Three Access Factors
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

16. Prior Experience Highlight Support Opportunities
Levels of High School Experience
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

17. Pricing Frame Shifts Dramatically
Acceptable Price Ranges by Access Status – Public and Private
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

18. Expect Substantial Parental Support
Financial Needs Far Different
Expect Substantial Parental Support
No Factors
55%
All three factors
18%
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

19. Financial Needs Far Different (cont.)
Effect of Financial Aid Timing
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

20. Access Students are Harder to Reach with Typical Communications Plans
Search Strategies
Source : Eduventures 2018 Student Sentiment Survey

21. Gen Z has Different Paths in Mind
Career
Experience
Academic
21%
21%
15%
19%
13%
11%
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

22. Demography is not Destiny
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

23. As Demography Shifts, Career Orientation Likely to Increase
Student Mindsets by Access Status
Access Factors:
First generation college
Low income
Underrepresented minority
Shall we color code these to the mindset above? I’m not convinced these are the most beautiful colors either (Dave?)
Source : Eduventures 2018 Prospective Student Survey

24. Opening Conversations
Work in Phases with Students Mindsets
Opening Conversations
Blind Spots
Opportunities for Support
Brainstorm with your colleagues in our workshop

25. 5 Take Aways for Working with the New Traditional Student
Understand students on the deepest level possible, not just as a demographic subgroups, but also through mindsets
For burgeoning “access” populations, put affordability issues front and center
Lead messaging with three critical mindsets: Career Pragmatists, Experiential Interests, and Exploration and Meaning, but get to the individual level as soon as you can
Sophisticated digital and social may stimulate some interest, but grass roots high school and community partnerships remain paramount for outreach to these students
Take students on a personalized learning journey to support enrollment decision and provide guidance for a successful student enrollment