1. Research, Evaluation and Development
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report November 15, 2016
The Ripple Effect
The R/E/D Group
Research, Evaluation and Development
Syracuse, NY

2. The Ripple Effect 2 Considerations:
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Considerations:
> Changes in Kindergarten class size
> The current enrollments
> In or out-migration
> The number in private or parochial schools
> The number in home schooling
> The number in out-of-district programs
> The number of incarcerated students
> The number in charter schools
> High school leavers
> The economy 2

3. The Ripple Effect 3 Key Change Variables:
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Key Change Variables:
> Changes in Kindergarten Class size
> The current enrollments
> In or out-migration
> Economy 3

4. Enrollments – Past, Present, and Future:
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
1. Kindergarten through Grade 12
2. Elementary Schools
3. Middle Schools
4. High Schools
5. Conclusions
Enrollments – Past, Present, and Future:
The Ripple Effect 4

5. The Ripple Effect Live Births in District (LBWVL)
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
Live Births in District (LBWVL)
Compared to Kindergarten (KE) Five Years Later
The Ripple Effect
The trends in births in the district establish the estimated Kindergarten classes for the next three years and then we use an estimate based on history.
Actual Projected

6. Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report 2016-2017
The Ripple Effect

7. The Ripple Effect Assumptions :
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Assumptions :
> Kindergartens will be smaller than12th grades
> In-migration will offset some attrition
> The Economy will continue its recovery
> Other factors will stay stable for the study period

8. K -12 Five Year History 2012 - 2017 The Ripple Effect 8
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
K -12 Five Year History
The Ripple Effect 8

9. The Ripple Effect Enrollments Projected from 2017-2018 to 2026-2027
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Enrollments Projected from to .

10. The Ripple Effect Elementary School Five Year History
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
Elementary School Five Year History
The Ripple Effect

11. The Ripple Effect Elementary School Five Year Projections
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Elementary School Five Year Projections

12. The Ripple Effect Country Parkway Projections Current Year 534
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Country Parkway
Projections
Current Year
534
547
583
591
600

13. The Ripple Effect Dodge Projections Current Year 520 2017-2018 518
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Dodge
Projections
Current Year
520
518
521
533
536

14. The Ripple Effect Forest Projections Current Year 546 2017-2018 561
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Forest
Projections
Current Year
546
561
555
565
577
574

15. The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 621 2017-2018 616
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Heim
Projections
Current Year
621
616
609
629
634
641

16. The Ripple Effect Maple East Projections Current Year 581 2017-2018
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Maple East
Projections
Current Year
581
564
550
535
545

17. The Ripple Effect Maple West Projections Current Year 646 2017-2018
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Maple West
Projections
Current Year
646
615
590
600
561

18. The Ripple Effect Middle School Five Year History
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Middle School Five Year History

19. The Ripple Effect Middle School Five Year Projection
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
Middle School Five Year Projection
The Ripple Effect

20. The Ripple Effect Casey Projections Current Year 695 2017-2018 707
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Casey
Projections
Current Year
695
707
674
646
634
629

21. The Ripple Effect Heim Projections Current Year 672 2017-2018 649
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Heim
Projections
Current Year
672
649
641
630
596
589

22. The Ripple Effect Mill Projections Current Year 860 2017-2018 875
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Mill
Projections
Current Year
860
875
811
818 .

23. The Ripple Effect Transit Projections Current Year 983 2017-2018 979
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Transit
Projections
Current Year
983
979
1001
949
900
874

24. The Ripple Effect High School Five Year History
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
High School Five Year History

25. The Ripple Effect High School Five Year Projections
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
High School Five Year Projections

26. The Ripple Effect East Projections Current Year 1031 2017-2018 1010
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
East
Projections
Current Year
1031
1010
1009
1007
994

27. The Ripple Effect North Projections Current Year 1315 2017-2018 1388
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
North
Projections
Current Year
1315
1388
1451
1461
1423

28. The Ripple Effect South Projections Current Year 968 2017-2018 967
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
South
Projections
Current Year
968
967
926
911
903
900

29. The Ripple Effect Williamsville Central School District
Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Conclusions:
Barring large increases of new students, enrollments will decrease slowly over the next five years.
No major building additions/changes or closings are indicated by the projected enrollments.
No changes in the current feeder patterns are indicated by the projected enrollments.
The Board should annually review enrollments to monitor changes in current trends.
A special thank you to the administration and staff for making this report a pleasure to complete.

30. The Ripple Effect Steven Grossman EdD The R/E/D Group Syracuse, NY
Williamsville Central School District Enrollment Projections Report
The Ripple Effect
Steven Grossman EdD
The R/E/D Group
Syracuse, NY