1. Climate Change: The science and the impacts for Wales
Rhodri Asby, Deputy Director Climate Change & Natural Resource Policy

2. “Climate is what you expect,weather is what you get”
Robert A. Heinlein
Climate is a long term average of weather (usually over 30 years) and trends in these average conditions are climate change.
Weather is what we experience hour-to-hour, day-to-day or even year-to-year, and as anyone living in Wales will know, it can be highly variable.
On occasion weather may even appear at odds with long-term climate change (e.g. cold winters in 2009 and 2010).

3. The science.. Key Messages from the UN’s IPCC:
The longer we delay action, the harder and more expensive it will be…
Climate change will increase existing risks (e.g. food security, health inequalities) and create new risks for natural and human systems. These risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people and communities.
Without additional mitigation, warming by the end of the 21st century is expected to exceed 4°C, leading to a high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally.
Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes, increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
There is overwhelming scientific evidence climate change is happening. Human influence on the climate system is clear, and recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history. 3

4. Flooding in Cardiff (Source: www.geograph.org.uk)
What are the impacts for Wales?
An increase in mean winter temperatures of around 2.0°C and precipitation of 14% by 2050
An increase in mean summer temperatures of around 2.5°C and precipitation of 17% by 2050
An increase in Sea Levels: by between 31 and 43cm by 2080
More extreme weather
Under the 2050s Medium Emissions scenario
Flooding in Cardiff (Source: 4

13. Locally 13 13

14. Environmentally… Average temperatures in Wales have already increased
by 0.7 degrees centigrade
between 1961 and 2006 there has been a 22.4 day reduction in frosty days per year
there has been a 24% decline in summer rainfall in Wales ( )
Last month was globally the hottest October recorded 14 14

15. Impacts… The costs of not acting on climate change would be in the
order 5-6% of the EU's GDP
European Commission
The approximate total cost of damage from flooding in the EU over the period was at least EUR 150 billion.
EU study published 3rd March 2014
people died prematurely from air pollution in the EU in 2010
European Environment Agency
100,000 Welsh homes at flooding risk now…. potentially up to 200,000 by 2050.
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 15 15

16. The number of residential properties in the most deprived areas at significant likelihood of tidal and river flooding could rise as high as 16,000 by the 2020s and to over 25,000 by the 2080s
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
Poverty is an important factor increasing social vulnerability to river flooding and heatwaves
Coastal areas likely to experience severe climate change impacts
Population has high vulnerability and low awareness
Areas of high vulnerability may be least able to afford flood defences

17. ‘connected challenges’
The number of residential properties in the most deprived areas at significant likelihood of tidal and river flooding could rise as high as 16,000 by the 2020s and to over 25,000 by the 2080s
UK Climate Change Risk Assessment
Poverty is an important factor increasing social vulnerability to river flooding and heatwaves
Coastal areas likely to experience severe climate change impacts
Population has high vulnerability and low awareness
Areas of high vulnerability may be least able to afford flood defences

18. ‘the cost of living is increasing’
people died prematurely from air pollution in the
EU in 2010
European Environment Agency 18 18

19. The Opportunity
‘Climate change is a threat, but responding to it opens up a world of opportunity.
The transition we need to make towards a carbon-neutral world will provide jobs, a healthier planet, greater well-being and if we do it properly, greater equality.’
Mary Robinson
The energy and environmental sector in Wales now has a market value of £4.76 billion, employing about 58,000 people in 2,066 companies.
The sector has grown from £1.24 billion to £2.36 billion in sales: an increase of 90% from 2006. 19 19

20. Misc content to add Our aims
‘to create a sustainable, low carbon economy for Wales’
“putting sustainable development at the heart of government.”
“Reduce greenhouse gas emissions in areas of devolved competence and support effective adaptation to the impacts of climate change through implementation of the Climate Change Strategy. “
“We are committed to improving the energy performance of homes in Wales to help communities find ways to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.” 20 20

21. Misc content to add Our Targets Headline Targets and aims:
Annual target 3% each
year from 2011 ( baseline)
Overall emissions by 40%
by 2020.
Build Wales’ resilience to the impacts of climate change 21 21

22. Progress
74% of the existing 221,000 social homes in Wales had achieved a SAP rating of 65 or above/equivalent to an energy rating of D (March 2013). We anticipate all homes meeting it by 2020.
Energy Efficiency and Fuel Poverty Programmes have continued to cut greenhouse gas emissions and improve the energy performance of homes in Wales with improvements to over 7,900 homes.
Up to £750 million of investment being made through a programme to support local authorities delivering next generation waste facilities.
A Carbon Reduction Strategy for Welsh Government’s built estate has been implemented and emissions from government buildings have reduced by 27%
Almost 20% of electricity is NHS Wales is now generated from Combined Heat & Power Units and all NHS organisations have sustainable travel plans for their hospital sites. 22 22

23. Misc content to add Where we are… 23 23
The 40% target relates to our aim of reducing all Welsh greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by The target is measured from 1990 levels when emissions levels were at MtCO2e. The graph shows that emissions in Wales have declined from the base year14 to MtCO2e in The annual average decline in emissions is 1.03% per year since 1990 which represents a 20.6% reduction in total emissions. The current trend falls short of the projected reduction required to meet the 40% target.
Overall, whilst progress against our targets is encouraging, we recognise that the economic downturn has had an impact and significant further action is required to ensure that our long-term emission reduction commitments are achieved in future years. 23 23

24. Misc content to add Current Action…
66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of
global manmade greenhouse gas emissions have passed
almost 500 pieces of legislation on climate change
The globe climate legislation study, 27 February 2014
The EU's decarbonisation of its energy sector will only cut emissions by half the amount needed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius in 2050.
EU Commission, ‘Trends to 2050’ 24 24

25. Preparing for a changing climate
Task1
Starting
Task 5
Monitoring &
Reviewing
Task 2
Investigating
Task 3
Planning
Task 4
Implementing

27. Communities and third sector climate resilience worksheet.
Highlights the likely key impacts on individuals, organisations and services linked to third sector.
Offers guidance for preparation and anticipation to ensure all are ‘climate ready’.
Recognises that there is no ‘one size fits all’ solution.
Includes blank Action Plans to help consider specific immediate and long term actions along with organisational changes required. 27 27

28. Misc content to add Winter Weather Advice Webpage
Signposts where to receive latest information on:
weather forecasts and associated warnings
traffic
school closures
Offers guidance on being prepared for cold weather; keeping warm, keeping well, helping vulnerable community members. 28 28

29. Next Steps
On October 21st, the Minister for Natural Resources set out the key priorities for action:
Driving out climate risk;
Driving down emissions;
Driving up Energy Efficiency; and
Driving forward Low Carbon Energy.
In doing so, the focus is on Green Growth, tackling social vulnerability and strengthening our governance to support engagement.

30. Next steps .
know what we are aiming for and the key principles to apply,
have a clear picture of the resources we have and the key risks and opportunities;
have an efficient process to ensure the right development is located in the right place.
Adds to the Government of Wales Act with SD at its heart and other legislation in particularly the rights of the child 30

31. Empowering Community Delivery
Policy
Energy Wales
Climate Change
Towards Zero Waste
Water Strategy
Legislation
Funding .
Wellbeing of Future Generations Bill
Environment Bill
Planning Bill
Grant Funding
Green Growth Fund
Nature Fund
EU Funding
Empowering Community Delivery
Regulations
Procurement
Welsh Government
Natural Resources Wales
Resource Efficient Wales Procurement Framework
Guidance
Information & Advice
Preparing for a Changing Climate
Resource Efficient Wales Contact Centre
Client manager support
Specialist support 31 31

32. Thank you /
Diolch
‘Today’s problems cannot be solved if we still think the way we thought when we created them.’
Albert Einstein

33. Misc content to add
Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance
Engagement 33 33

34. Vulneability 34 34 Physical and Mental health
Higher summer temps and increased rainfall could cause health problems both directly (e.g. adverse health associated with heatwaves and flooding events) and indirectly (UV exposure, air pollution and infectious diseases.
Those that are most vulnerable are likely to be more sensitive to the impacts e.g. the young and elderly and those with existing poor physical health conditions such as heart conditions, diabetes and respiratory problems.
People who are less mobile or not informed of flood risk may be less able to move from at risk areas
As a result of transport/infrastructure disruption, individuals may not be able to attend medical appointments, social groups, the shops etc. This may lead to individuals feeling isolated causing anxiety and stress.
The effect of personal and economic loss from extreme weather events such as flooding incidents is likely to lead to significant stress to individuals.
Fear and worry about financial issues due to loss of earnings as a result of days off work due to transport/business disruption.
Homes/Properties in communities
Damage to buildings due to
Flooding
High winds and storms
Sea level rise/Coastal erosion
subsidence
Discomfort in homes (especially care homes) during very hot weather.
Damage to livestock/crops.
Reduced winter heating, however this may be offset by increased summer cooling in homes
Communication loss (from telephones, internet connection) in severe weather events isolating individuals.
Wider community issues
Increase in grass/moorland fires due to natural causes and arson in dry conditions. This will have consequences for those living near.
Risk of an increase in anti-social behaviour due to excess consumption of alcohol in hot weather.
Resource shortages and rising prices of food/water/energy
Loss or migration of climate sensitive species.
Increase in international Lack of access to health care services due to transport and infrastructure disruption environmental migration which could impact on community cohesion
Financial security
Insurance issues around:
those that are in flood risk areas
those that do not have insurance
those that have previously been flooded.
Travel disruption may cause people to take unpaid leave off work.
Cost and availability of essential supplies during extreme weather events.
Vulneability 34 34

35. Misc content to add Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance Task1 Task 2
Starting
to understand
your stakeholders
and the basics of
weather and
climate
Task 5
Monitoring &
Reviewing
information
and actions
Task 2
Investigating
current and future
threats and
opportunities
Task 3
Planning
actions against
the threats
and
Task 4
Implementing
the
actions 35 35

36. What do you remember about past extreme weather events
that have affected your community?
Misc content to add
Task1
Starting
to understand
your stakeholders
and the basics of
weather and
climate
Task 5
Monitoring &
Reviewing
information
and actions
Task 2
Investigating
current and future
threats and
opportunities
Task 3
Planning
actions against
the threats
and
Task 4
Implementing
the
actions 36 36

37. Misc content to add Sectoral Adaptation Plan Guidance
2. Who in your community is most
at risk to our changing weather
and why?
3. What places or buildings that
you value are at risk?
Task1
Starting
to understand
your stakeholders
and the basics of
weather and
climate
Task 5
Monitoring &
Reviewing
information
and actions
Task 2
Investigating
current and future
threats and
opportunities
Task 3
Planning
actions against
the threats
and
Task 4
Implementing
the
actions 37 37

38. Misc content to add What can we do as a community? Task1 Task 2 Task 5
Starting
to understand
your stakeholders
and the basics of
weather and
climate
Task 5
Monitoring &
Reviewing
information
and actions
Task 2
Investigating
current and future
threats and
opportunities
Task 3
Planning
actions against
the threats
and
Task 4
Implementing
the
actions 38 38