1. CEO of Korea Tourism Organization
Tourism Forecast for 2030
한국 관광 브랜드 개발 보고서
Thank you, Mr. Gordon for your kind introduction!
Distinguished guests, honourable speakers, ladies and gentlemen,
It is my pleasure, on behalf of the Korean tourism industry, to meet you all at this exciting session for the 2nd World Best Airports Forum, which aims to understand the diverse desires of consumers and analyse their impact on the aviation industry.
Without sustainable development of the air travel industry, we cannot expect tourism development. And so, in this regard, I am very happy to be able to present to you our “Tourism Forecast for 2030”.
Kim, Jong-min
CEO of Korea Tourism Organization 1
Tourism Forecast for 2030

2. International Tourism Industry
2006 Overview of
International Tourism Industry
First, let me start with an overview of the international tourism industry in 2006.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

3. International Tourism
(1990~2006)
According to the UNWTO’s latest World Tourism Barometer, 2006 showed another record year for world tourism with over 842 million international tourist arrivals being recorded.
2006 confirmed that the demand for tourism is highly resilient with the industry enjoying an above average increase in international tourist arrivals of around 4.5%.
In 2006, there was an additional 36 million tourist arrivals worldwide, and 12 million of these were from Asia.
Source: UNWTO
842 million in 2006
 36 million additional arrivals
Tourism Forecast for 2030

4. Trends in Inbound Tourism Inbound tourism by means of transport
Rail
Water 5% 7%
Road
Air
43%
45%
Inbound tourism by means of transport
2005
As you can see here, half of all international tourists list leisure for their purpose of travel.
However, medical and religious-related travel is slowly growing.
And over the last two years, air transportation has grown at a faster pace than transport over land or water.
Source: UNWTO
 Medical and religious-related travel is growing.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

5. International Tourist Arrivals
2000~2006 (millions)
2000
2003
2005
2006
Market Share(06)
Change(%) 06/05
World
687
694
806
842
100%
4.5
Europe
395.8
407.1
441.5
458.5
54.4%
3.9
Asia/Pacific
110.5
113.3
155.4
167.4
19.9%
7.6
Americas
128.1
113.1
133.5
136.5
16.2%
2.1
Africa
28.2
31.0
36.7
39.7
4.7%
8.1
Middle East
24.2
29.5
39.1
40.6
4.8%
In 2006, Africa and the Asia/Pacific region, compared with previous year, showed the strongest average annual increase at 8.1% and 7.6%, respectively.
This trend of growth is expected to continue in 2007.
Source: UNWTO
Africa and the Asia/Pacific are driving growth
Tourism Forecast for 2030

6. Long-term Prospects
Tourism 2020 Vision

7. International Tourism
1990~2020 (millions)
According to the long term prospects of world tourism, the UNWTO forecasts that international arrivals are expected to reach nearly 1.6 billion by the year 2020.
Of those worldwide arrivals in 2020, 378 million will be long-haul travels, growing from a total 17.8% in 1995 to 24.3% by 2020.
Source: UNWTO
 1.6 billion travelers by 2020
Tourism Forecast for 2030

8. International Tourist Arrivals
by Region (Share, %)
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2010
2020
Total
100
Africa 3 4 5
Americas 21 20 19 18
East Asia/Pacific 7 10 12 14 16 22 25
Europe 66 64 62 60 57 50 46
Middle East 2
South Asia 1
Source: UNWTO
Europe will maintain the highest share of world arrivals, although there will be a decline from a 66% market share in 1980 to 46% in 2020.
Asia and the Pacific region have recorded impressive increases over the past three decades, and annual growth is expected to continue, with Asia making up 25 % of all international tourist arrivals in 2020.
 Market share of Europe will drop from 66% in 1980 to 46% in 2020.
 One out of four tourists will visit Asia and the Pacific.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

9. The World in 2030

10. World Population Estimates
Year
2005
2030
2050
2100
Estimated Scenario
6,464 million
8,199 million
9,075 million
9,000 million
Source : UN
According to the United Nations, the world population will increase to 8.2 billion by 2030.
Birthrates are expected to decline gradually and aging populations will increase.
In the future, retirees with expendable income will be a key factor that leads to tourism industry growth.
 Aging populations/Declining birthrates
 Retirees - Key to tourism industry growth
Tourism Forecast for 2030

11. Average Growth Rate Up to 2030
Economy:
Average Growth Rate Up to 2030
Source: UN, World Bank, IMF, Groningen Growth and Development Centre,
Cabinet Office,
Taiwan Statistics Bureau
The global economy will expand from US$35 trillion in 2005 to US$72 trillion by 2030.
China and India’s middle class will also become much larger.
Furthermore, increased competition will lead to greater productivity, constant growth and a general improvement in living standards.
Global economy: $72 trillion by 2030
China and India’s middle class will increase dramatically.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

12. Society Supersegmentation  Consumers’ position & expectations
Increasing Lifespans and Free-Time
Prosperity and longevity
 Favor leisure and free-time.
Experiences
 Experience Economy
Consumers will have a stronger position in a globalized world and consumer expectations are greatly increasing.
Growing prosperity and expanding longevity will enable many people to work less and to put aside more free time and more money for travel and shopping.
Consumers are not only looking for the provision of goods and services in the 21st century, but also the provision of memorable experiences as emphasized in a recent Harvard publication entitled “Experience Economy”.
We have to be flexible in terms of what sort of products we produce, and how we can shift and adapt them to new needs of the market.
Flexibility
 Products & new needs of the market
Tourism Forecast for 2030

13. Society Globalization Innovation - Essential source of competition
Environment Conscious
 Holidaymakers are environment conscious
7 Technologies
Industries of all kinds face international competition due to the rapid progression of globalization, and innovation is the essential source of this competition.
Holidaymakers are becoming more and more environment conscious in view of the staggering additional consumption of resources and increase in pollution.
The Korean government has outlined 6 core industries that will serve as driving forces for future development and economic growth. They are “Bio T, Culture T, Environment T, Information T, Nano T and Space T. The KTO has added another technology called “Tourism Technology (TT)” which I will explain in detail later in my presentation.
Even with technological advances, an emphasis will be put on human imagination and creativity.
 BT, CT, ET, IT, NT, ST + TT
Imagination and creativity
Tourism Forecast for 2030

14. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Now I would like to introduce the tourism trends in Asia and the Pacific,
as they will have a major impact
not only on the air travel industry
but also on economies, cultures, society, environment,
and even political systems in and outside of the region.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

15. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Experience-based travel
New Zealand
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
India
Nepal
Sri Lanka
China and India – Future driving forces
According to the UNWTO’s Recent Study in collaboration with the Hong Kong Polytechnic University on “Mega Tourism Trends in Asia and the Pacific”,
Travelers are seeking destinations that offer experiences rather than just seeing the destination itself.
For example, one can now do bungee jumping almost everywhere in the world, but you will need to go to New Zealand if you want to see the movie sets of “The Lord of the Rings”.
The powerful influence of destination images has caused the increase of film-induced and music-induced tourism to the Republic of Korea. Examples include the popular Korean television dramas, Winter Sonata and Daejanggeum.
More and more travelers are deciding what activities they want to partake in first and then choosing the destination that offers it. Much like the spa or beach-related tours to Thailand, Malaysia and Philippines or religious-related trips to India, Nepal and Sri Lanka.
By 2020, China will become the world’s fourth largest tourist generating country and the world’s top tourist destination. And together with India, will become a major driving force for the tourism industry.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

16. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Intra/Inter-regional Travel
 Fierce competition and lower airfares
Travel agents serve as consultants
 Fee-based and value-added models
 Offline and personalized services
Fierce competition in the aviation industry has driven down airfares. Lower airfares encourage travelers to shift from annual long-haul holidays to multiple short-haul travel, which benefits intra and inter-regional travel activity.
Service fee-based and value-added models are replacing commissions-based operations.
Travel agents continue to provide internet-based services but keep offline and personalized consulting services available.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

17. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Polarization of tastes and travel spending
 Larger middle class/more diversified markets
Continued growth of online transactions
Social-environmental awareness & consciousness
An increase in middle classes in some developed countries is one of the possible explanations for the polarization of tastes and travel expenditure.
Airlines, hotels and travel agencies are the industries that have been most influenced by the Internet. However, the popularity of online transactions has not replaced personal services.
It is expected that, as Asians gradually re-appreciate the importance of environmental protection, the environmental protection movement will gain momentum.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

18. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Competition and cooperation
Travel experiences and customized tours
Rapid growth of business travel
The trend of both competition and cooperation between countries is likely to continue as tourists become more experienced, savvy and look for more diversity in a tourism destination.
Providing unique travel experiences and customized high quality tours is essential to bringing more tourists and keep them staying longer.
The business travel market is growing at a faster rate than the leisure market and Asian women business travelers could be the fastest growing segment of the business travel market.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

19. in Asia-Pacific Region
Tourism Trends
in Asia-Pacific Region
Asia - Convention hub
Senior and women travelers
Safety and health
As Chinese corporations begin to realize the importance of incentive tours, the MICE market in China will grow dramatically and Asia will gradually become a hub for conventions.
Senior and women travelers will become significant factors for the Asia and Pacific region. And the most favorable activities for them include shopping, visiting natural and scenic attractions, rest and relaxation, culinary-related travel, and visiting historic and cultural attractions.
Safety and health concerns will continue to be very important for corporate travelers and MICE buyers.
And long-haul travelers continue to be sensitive toward negative news.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

20. Korean Tourism Forecast
Let me conclude my presentation by introducing our forecast for Korean Tourism..
Tourism Forecast for 2030

21. Trends in Korean Tourism
In 2006, tourists from Europe and the Americas decreased and tourists from Asia increased 8.6% when compared to 1996.
The percentage of people traveling intra-regionally reached 75% over the last decade and this continues to increase.
Source: KTO
 Ratio of intra-regional travel is continuously increasing.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

22. 2007 Forecast for Intraregional Travel in Northeast Asia
0.8
million
KOREA
2.4
million
4.6
million
Intraregional
Travel
2.3
million
CHINA
JAPAN
4.0
million
0.9
million
Economic and geopolitical integration is rapidly becoming a reality among the countries of Korea, China and Japan.
And the anticipated volume of intra-regional travel of these three countries is expected to be over 15 million travelers in 2007.
There is also a huge demand for developing package tourism products convening in Northeast Asia.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

23. KTO aims to attract 10 million inbound visitors by 2010
Korean Tourism Vision
KTO aims to attract 10 million inbound visitors by 2010
and 30 million by 2020
Country
Population
(thousands)
Land
(1,000 ㎢)
Arrivals
(millions)
ROK
48,000
99.9
6.2
DPRK
23,000
122.1 -
Total
71,000
222.0
Italy
58,000
301.3
36.5 UK
60,000
241.8
30.0
The Korea Tourism Organization aims to attract 10 million inbound visitors by 2010 and 30 million by 2020.
Italy and the UK, countries with similar populations to Korea, currently welcome over 30 million visitors. I believe it is possible for Korea to attract this same number by 2020 if we manage to seize just 1% of the Chinese and Indian markets, see a more open North Korea, and enjoy a 7% annual growth rate from Also, by 2020, Korea’s GDP is estimated to be around $40,000 and this will no doubt help in contributing to the tourism industry.
I strongly believe that the future of the Korean tourism industry is very promising as we have two giant markets located nearby: the Japanese market and the huge Chinese market as well.
I am sure that this particular geographical advantage will be highlighted when the two Koreas are unified.
Tourism Forecast for 2030

24. Korean Tourism Vision Tourism Technology
Tourism as a new growth engine
A Unified Korean Peninsula
Converting DMZ to PLZ (Peace Life Zone)
Railway through North Korea connecting Korea to the continent
 TKR (Trans-Korean Railway)  TSR (Trans-Siberian Railway)
 TCR (Trans-Chinese Railway)  TMR (Trans-Manchurian Railway)
Underwater tunnel connecting Korea to Japan
Tourism Technology is a scientific term created by the KTO to encompass all social cultural, managerial skills and value-added activities required to develop the travel and tourism industry.
Tourism is a new growth engine and a key industry for future generations. In order to enhance Korea’s tourism industry, a focus must be put on science and technology.
The vision of the Korean tourism industry cannot be completed without mentioning a unified Korean peninsula.
And it is possible that the excellently-preserved demilitarized zone could be converted into an environmentally-friendly Peace Life Zone.
Also, a railway traversing through North Korea would connect Korea to China, then on to the Trans Siberian Railway and eventually Europe.
Also, a push for connecting Japan and Korea through an underwater tunnel would ease travel a great deal.
Thank you very much.
Tourism Forecast for 2030