1. Mackinder and the Arctic’s Emerging Geopolitics
Recommendations for the U.S. and its NATO Allies
Professor Bert Chapman
Purdue University Libraries
Mackinder Forum-American Society for Competitiveness Conference
October 27, 2018
Graphic design contributions by Aly Edmondson, Purdue University Libraries

2. Mackinder on the Arctic and Canada

3. Arctic Observations-Source: 1996 National Defense University Press edition of Democratic Ideals and Reality and selected other writings.
Source: 1996 edition National Defense University Press-
Refers to rivers flowing to ice-choked mouths in Arctic Sea.
Notes world island points NE and SE and claims on a clear day you can see across the Bering Strait to the Americas
Contends Arctic & continental drainage covers almost half of Asia and ¼ of Europe while forming a continuous patch in the Heartland. Such drainage includes much of the great lowland and the Iranian upland.
The Heartland, Arabia, and Sahara are a broad curving belt inaccessible by sea, except for Arabian waterways, with this belt extending from the Arctic to Atlantic shores.
Contends Constantinople Turkish can be understood by Arctic residents at the Lena River’s mouth.
Continuous plains of Great Lowland overlap from Continental and Arctic drainage into the Heartland and east of Europe.

4. Seapower cannot reach Heartland’s western part without Arctic & continental drainage.
Horse and camel riding nomadic northern settlement patterns limited by sub-Arctic forest and marsh with a climate to cold for agricultural development except at western and eastern extremes.
Sub-Arctic Eurasian forests are favorable for hose and camel mobility, but there are no available waterways to the ocean.
Heartland extends from Arctic Coasts to central deserts and its western limits are the isthmus between the Baltic and Black Seas. Waters going to the Arctic Sea are inaccessible from the ocean due to ice cover. A water divide demarcating Arctic and continental rivers into a single area constitutes the Heartland.

6. Mackinder on Canada
Arctic Coast inaccessible in Lena River drainage area
Notes Arctic coast no longer inaccessible due to icebreaker assisted merchant ship convoys and airplane reconnaissance of water lanes through the icepack have traded through the Obi, Yenisei, and Lena Rivers. Sees hostile invasion of this region featuring circumpolar ice, tundra mosses, and taiga forests as impossible given Soviet air defenses
Notes Canadian participation in World War I. Mentions widespread grain cultivation in Western Canada used to feed eastern Canada, the eastern U.S., and Europe. Sees Ontario and Quebec balancing each other to keep other provinces from seeing themselves as being bullied by one of these provinces. Uncertain Canada, Australia, and UK will have individual fleets and armies to be put under single operational command if war occurs. Believes it may be demographically impossible for Australia & Canada to equal UK power.

7. Mackinder & Canada
Maintains Canada is a federal government and the UK is on its way to becoming a federal government.
Canada and selected other countries are a ring of outer and insular sea power and commerce inaccessible to Eurasian land power.
Sees Australia, Britain, Canada, Japan, and the U.S. as an outer crescent outside the pivot area.
Canada’s Laurentian Shield seen as a girdle hung around the North Polar regions including Lenaland, Alaska, and the western U.S.’ sub-arid belt.
U.S. and Canada seen as Atlantic countries in military potential.
Image Sources: National Post and McGill University

8. Mackinder TOURS CANADA LATE 1908
Sources: Blouet Mackinder biography pp and Geographical Journal, 38 (4)(Oct. 1911):
Addresses Canada Club in Winnipeg (Sept. 10) on British Sea Power
Sept. 24-Address in Ottawa on “Canada and Empire Problems” Advocates closer Canadian economic ties with Britain.
Forecasts long duration for U.S.-Canadian frontier.
Asserts the 100° west meridian has little or no significance, sees Canada becoming an equal rival to the U.S. in the Pacific, and that Canada will be the British Empire’s center.
Incorrect on this last point especially given the May 14, 1914 natural gas & oil discovery in Turner Valley, AB which has made western Canada a regionally significant player in global energy markets. See 1914 prospectus on next slide calling for $CAN 1.5 million stock shares ($CAN million in 2018-(U.S.) $ million-Sources: Bank of Canada and Oanda.com

10. 2017 Canada finishes construction of road to Arctic
2017 Canada finishes construction of road to Arctic. (Beaufort Sea) Inuvik-Tuktoyaktuk Highway
138 kilometers (87 miles) long-In Northwest Territory
Inuvik population 3,243 (2016 Census-Statistics Canada)
Tuktoyatuk population 898 (2016 Census-Statistics Canada)
Canadian Governor-General and territorial Premier attended dedication.
Cost $300 million CAN in territorial and federal contributions-Built by two indigenous contractors.

13. Countries with Arctic Claims
Canada
China
Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Russian Federation
Sweden
United Kingdom
United States

14. Arctic Ocean Region (Source: CIA)

15. Arctic region has significant oil and natural gas resources and these countries are very interested in getting in and maintaining access to these waters. Varying estimates from U.S. Geological Survey across entire Arctic region.
Warming temperatures increase the ability of these and other countries to access this region throughout the year. This also increases possibility of Arctic becoming an international transportation hub shortcut such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) or Northeast Passage on the next slide.

17. International Government Involvement
Arctic Council
National government diplomatic, military, and scientific organizations focused on Arctic policy objectives and strategic interests.
1920 Svalbard Treaty (came into effect in 1925) gives Norway sovereignty, but allows signatories access to its resources.
2008 Illulisat Declaration-Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia, and U.S. promise to protect environment, block comprehensive international legal regime to govern Arctic, and settle overlapping maps and territorial claims.
2010 Norwegian-Russian treaty aspires to divide Barents Sea and part of Arctic Ocean into clear economic zones reaching Europe’s northern continental shelf potentially opening way for oil and natural gas exploration.

20. Arctic Claims by Non-Contiguous Powers-China
China-Svalbard Treaty signatory.
Contemporary Chinese policymakers describe China as a “near-Arctic State.”
Joined Arctic Council as observer state in 2013.
Some Arctic analysts believe China should be passive toward the Arctic more assertive analysts see it as an alternative to Malacca Strait.
They believe China should break free from western pressure and emerge on world stage.
Arctic can be used to expand energy and transportation infrastructures by connecting to One Belt One Road Project.
PLAN staffer Yang Zhirong says China should add a military component to Arctic strategy like Russia and U.S.
Beijing’s 2015 National Military Strategy doesn’t list Arctic as area of explicit strategic interest but advocates safeguarding security interests in new domains and overseas interests.
Published Arctic Policy paper Jan. 26, Notes non-contiguous states have rights of scientific research, navigation, overflight, fishing, laying submarine cables and pipelines, and extracting natural resources consistent with UNCLOS and international law.

21. Finland
2013 Arctic Strategy calls for peaceful regional cooperation and preserving Arctic environment.
Mentions Finnish military personnel have unique experience working in Arctic and are interoperable with other international partners due to cold climate training and exercises.
Notes Arctic Ocean coastal states have upgraded their maritime surveillance, military capabilities, and frequency military exercises but claims military conflict is improbable.
2017 defense white paper is more realistic.
Notes increasing military activity and tensions in Baltic with early-warning period for crises shortening and threshold for using force lowered due to Russian strategic weapons based in Kola Peninsula.
Finland plans increasing its land, maritime, cyber, and air defense capabilities along with cooperation with Sweden and U.S.
Helsinki will increase wartime personnel from 230, ,000, spend $1.485 billion on naval vessel enhancements and increase annual defense spending by $68 million from and by $ million annually from 2021.

22. Sweden
2011 Arctic Strategy document contends security policy tensions are low and the Arctic Council should be the central means for resolving tensions.
Acknowledges Russian economic and security impact on Arctic.
Stresses historic national activities in Arctic including scientific research.
Admits climate change may make security more pertinent in Arctic policy discussions.
June 1, 2015 Swedish defense policy statement notes national security policymaking must now plan for wartime scenarios.
Such scenarios include protecting air and sea lanes to Sweden.
Expected defense budget increase of $887 million between with ultimate cumulative increase of $28 billion.
Beneficiaries of this spending increase include main battle tanks, infantry combat vehicles, naval corvettes, anti-submarines capabilities, and numbers of Grippen jet fighters increasing from 60 to 70 by mid-2020s.
Sept Sweden announces defense spending will increase by $338 million.

23. Norway
Dec Foreign Ministry issues High North Strategy considers “the High North to be Norway’s most important strategic priority in the years ahead…”
This document also stresses importance of close cooperation between Norwegian armed forces, Coast Guard, and legal authorities on resource management, conflict prevention, and maintaining predictability and stability.
Vows to increase cooperation with Russia, ensuring nuclear safety and preparedness, and possibly supporting efforts to initiate trade along the Northern East-West Freight Corridor to provide transportation solution from Central Asia to North America via port or Narvik.
April 21, 2017 govt. white paper to the Storting (Parliament) notes Russian aggression in Crimea & Ukraine changes European security landscape.
Norway notes other NATO countries cannot assume U.S. will maintain current level of European military interest and engagement and that the U.S, EU, China, & Russia are increasingly promoting their Arctic interests impinging on Norwegian interests.
Kola-based Russian nuclear deterrence facilities potentially limit Norwegian and NATO freedom of movement and allied access to North Sea and North Atlantic causing supply problems.
Oslo will purchase up to 52 F-35 fighters, extended military conscription to women in 2015, increased defense spending 2.5% in and established a Ranger Company focused on northern border with Russia.

25. Iceland
October 18, 2015 address by Iceland Prime Minister to Arctic Assembly emphasizes climate change, says all Arctic states share “a common responsibility and mutual interest in the protection and sustainability of the Arctic,” seeks to avoid competition and military conflict, and stresses promoting Arctic education and indigenous populations should be a high international priority.
Iceland does not have the economic or military clout or population to be a significant Arctic strategic policymaking player.

26. Denmark-Hans Island Dispute
Interests derive from possessing Greenland, being a NATO member; and as a Nordic nation with regional scientific and trade interests.
Copenhagen has traditionally sought to minimize possible Arctic conflict and maintain amicable relations with Russia.
Greenland is home of Thule air base which plays an important role in U.S. ballistic missile defense.
Denmark and Canada have disputed over ownership of Hans Island in the 22 mile wide Nares Strait due to disagreement over 12 mile territorial limit of either shore both countries are allowed to claim under international law.

27. Denmark
Increasing Russian assertiveness in Arctic & Baltic is increasing Danish assertiveness.
Proposed defense spending increases of 20% ($798 million) between
Increases go toward augmenting ground-based air defense, enhancing naval frigate capabilities with short and long-range missiles, equipping naval frigates with sonar and anti-torpedo systems, and marine helicopters with dipping sonars for anti-submarine warfare.
Increasing conscripts by 500 per year, expanding intelligence service analytic capability, and purchasing 27 Joint Strike Fighters for $3.235 billion to enhance Arctic and Baltic military operational potential through 2026.

28. Canada: Free Riding & Arctic Security
Ottawa Arctic policy marked by sanctimonious rhetoric about maintaining northern sovereignty in these waters without backing it up with credible military force.
It’s geographic proximity to U.S. and close ties with U.S. and NATO military defense policymaking make such rhetorical grandstanding easy.
2017 Defense White Paper maintains it will increase its long-term Arctic presence, acquire next generation satellites to enhance regional surveillance, and provide its Navy with 5-6 ice capable ships to enforce its sovereignty claims.

29. Canada
2017 Canadian Navy strategic planning document stresses Ottawa must become better equipped for Arctic operations, stresses it has the world’s lengthiest coastline, asserts climate change makes the High North a commercially viable sea route between Europe and Asia for the first time.
This benefits Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route.
Ottawa wants to increase its submarine, combatant ships, maritime helicopters and patrol aircraft, and support ships out to 2050
Canadian 1st Ranger patrols in Arctic-Source: University of Calgary Centre for Military & Strategic Studies-Image on Right
Since 2007 has conducted annual Operation Nanook military exercises in Arctic.

30. Major Contiguous Powers-Russia
2001 Russia submits formal claim to UN Commission on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) for 460,000 square miles running from undersea Lomonosov Ridge and Mendeleev Ridge to the North Pole equaling combined territory of Germany, France, and Italy.
2007 Russian Flag planted on seabed under North Pole (Source on right: Newsweek)
2008 Russian Arctic strategy document stresses need for basic warfighting capability in Arctic
2014 Russian military doctrine says NATO is the primary military danger to Russia and 2015 National Security strategy emphasizes Moscow’s commitment to enhancing Arctic military infrastructure.

31. Russia
Russian Army in Arctic primarily represented by 200th Motorized Infantry Brigade.
A Northern Command set to be operational in 2017
Efforts to upgrade airpower, air defense, and missile forces to meet Arctic operational requirements are ongoing.
Repeated Russian incursions into airspace of Baltic Republics, Canada, Finland, Sweden, and U.S. requiring interception by these countries Air Forces.
Russia has conducted increasingly large exercises in Arctic.

32. Sources: Heritage Foundation and the Arctic Institute

33. United Kingdom
House of Commons Defence Committee held inquiry on Arctic defense in spring 2017.
Released On Thin Ice report July 19, Conclusions and recommendations include:
Government should work closely with allies to establish a common position on all aspects of Arctic international law to ensure that intrastate disputes are not aggravated or exploited.
A comprehensive defense strategy is needed to counter the reassertion of Russian power from the High North to North Atlantic.
UK and its allies should be wary of Russia’s regional intentions, but committee falsely concludes Russia is just trying to reassert its military capacity and has no offensive intention.
Wants MOD to include how the Arctic and High North factor in the National Security Capability Review and Modernising Defence Programme
Concerned about decreasing British anti-submarine warfare capability, notes significant increase in Russian activity around British Isles, the emerging threat to undersea data cables and the consequence of network disruption, and asks for MOD to document under ice capability of Royal Navy submarines.
MOD should supply assurance that air platforms such as Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft have the range and resilience to sustain High North Operations and enhance their anti-submarine capability.
Increase Cold Weather training exercises in 2019 and provide expanded details on Cold Weather warfare capabilities.
Oct. 18, 2018 Govt. response to this report says a ten year plan to cohere and further develop maritime and Royal Marine activity in the High North is under development. This has strong implications for amphibious capability.

35. Bering, Beaufort, and Chukchi Seas-Source National Academies Press

36. United States: Ambiguous Responses to Russian Challenge
U.S. law defines Arctic as “all United States and foreign territory north of the Arctic Circle and all united States territory north and west of the boundary formed by the Porcupine, Yukon, and Kuskokwin Rivers; all contiguous seas, including the Arctic Ocean and the Beaufort, Bering, and Chukchi Seas; and the Aleutian Chain.” 15 USC 4111.
Feb. 13, 1935-Billy Mitchell tells House Military Affairs Committee “Alaska is the most central place in the world for aircraft, and that is true for either of Europe, Asia, or North America. I believe in the future who holds Alaska will hold the world, and I think it is the most important strategic place in the world.”
Sept. 28, 1945-Truman issues Proclamation 2667 declaring U.S. believes nations should be able to exercise jurisdiction over subsoil and sea-based natural resources on U.S. contiguous continental shelf. U.S. should negotiate such boundaries with adjoining countries and retain freedom of navigation.
Jan. 9, 2009-Outgoing Bush 43 Administration issues directive that U.S. is an Arctic nation with varied and compelling regional interests including freedom of the seas, the need to develop capabilities to protect national air, land, and sea borders, preserve U.S. civilian and military vessel mobility, and project a sovereign U.S. maritime presence for essential national interests. Did not prioritize or recommend funding for Obama Admin.

37. U.S: Ambiguous Responses to Russian Challenges
2012 Naval War College report expresses concern Coast Guard has only one operational capable polar icebreaker USCG Healey, no Navy ice-strengthened ships for use in first year ice or marginal ice zone, resupplying Navy ships capable of operating in Arctic is difficult.
U.S. Arctic has very little littoral infrastructure for supporting medium or large-scale operations, few deep-water ports, airfields, fuel, provision, maintenance, and medical sources, Kodiak, AK, the northernmost facility for large-scale ships and major resupply is 940 miles from Point Barrow, AK, and Eielson AFB is 400 miles from Alaska’s north coast; and there is insufficient fuel storage places in U.S. & Canadian Arctic to sustain large ships.
2013 Obama Admin. Arctic Strategy stresses DOD will seek low footprint approaches; emphasize federal interagency collaboration with Alaska, notes fiscal limitations reduce spending on Arctic capabilities and training, expresses concern over political rhetoric and reporting over boundary disputes and resource competition could exacerbate regional tensions, and being “too aggressive” could increase stakeholder mistrust and miscommunication.
2013 Coast Guard Arctic Strategy notes 35% of Alaskan jobs tied to energy production with onshore oil production decreasing, shipping in Bering Strait increased 118% between , and there is limited cell phone coverage in Arctic due to coverage, capability, and reliability restrictions.
2014 Arctic Roadmap by CNO stresses warming temperatures will require Navy to make additional strategic investments in this region. Claimed disputes between Arctic nations could be resolved peacefully.

38. U.S.
2016 DOD analysis says U.S. spending $416 million on research projects to implement 2013 Strategy. FY 2017 funding including $296 million for supporting JSF aircraft at Eielson AFB, $47 million for unmanned air system hangar at Fort Wainwright, and $20 million for modifying an existing hangar and rinse rack at Kevlavik, Iceland to support short-term P-8 aircraft deployments.
Dec Arctic Strategy Report features rhetoric about U.S. desire to avoid Arctic conflict but desires to improve the ability of U.S. forces to operate safely and be sustained in this harsh and remote environment. Commits DOD to enhancing its Arctic C5ISR capabilities while noting other operational difficulties including lack of satellite and terrestrial communications above 65° north and limited Arctic Ocean charting to modern standards.
2017 Trump Admin National Security Strategy stresses need to keep the Arctic, outer space, and digital realm accessible to U.S. and international institutions.
April 6, 2017-U.S. NORTHCOM Commander General Lori Robinson notes threats to U.S. & Canada are “increasingly global, trans-regional, and multifunctional in nature” in congressional testimony. Jan person barracks opens in Barrow, AK to support Alaska National Guard training exercises.
Jan Coast Guard Commandant Paul Zukunft announces new fleet of heavy icebreaker ships will be designed to counteract Russian fleet of at least 40 icebreakers including four operational nuclear-powered icebreakers. Says first U.S. nuclear icebreakers could be ready in five years for less than $1 billion.
FY 2019 defense budget (Public Law )(Aug. 2018) Section 1071 requires an updated report on Arctic Strategy by June 1, 2019 to include a description of U.S. Arctic national security interests, a threat assessment including adversaries intentions and investments in Arctic capabilities, description of Joint Arctic Strategy for air, ground, and sea forces, and resource gaps which must be addressed in an increasing threat environment.
Sec to update NATO maritime strategy to include changing military balance in North Atlantic and Arctic Ocean.
Sec Requires President to submit to Congress a whole-of-government strategy for containing China including the Polar Silk Road in the Arctic.

39. Discussion
Mikkel Nyman Behrens 2015 Air University School of Advanced Air and Space Power Studies Thesis “Trouble in NIFLHEIM?: Elements of an Arctic Strategy” uses Mackinder’s Heartland and Spykman’s Rimland and other theories as presenting four potential NATO-Russia Arctic conflict areas:
Territorial disputes between Denmark and Russia over extending an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to the North Pole.
Norway and Russia having lengthy dispute history over Svalbard extraction rights. Svalbard is close to the heavily militarized Kola Peninsula and Russia’s northern fleet.
Northern Sea Route with Russia and U.S. disagreeing over waterway status if it becomes lucrative maritime SLOC.

40. Discussion
…Russia could challenge U.S. freedom of seas claims by closing straits acting as maritime chokepoints potentially risking confrontation with U.S. forces in the Arctic with proximity of Russian forces to Russian mainland giving Moscow an advantage.
Delimiting the Bering and Chukchi Seas between Russia and U.S. could produce military confrontation with Alaska’s geographic proximity making this a tripwire for immediate U.S. response to Russian aggression

41. Recommendations for U.S. and NATO Allies
Arctic cannot be viewed as utopian zone or international sanctuary. Sustained steps necessary if U.S. and allies are to triumph in Arctic conflict.
NATO countries must bolster their Arctic military presence by increasing naval and Coast Guard vessels which are appropriately armed and can withstand Arctic weather. U.S. NORTHCOM must boldly assert Arctic defense as a priority and back this up with funding.
These countries must augment air and naval forces patrolling Arctic, increase permanently stationed land forces, and upgrade personnel and infrastructure to demonstrate strength and endurance in committing against potential Chinese and Russian encroachments.
SBIR satellites must be constantly overhead to warn against ballistic missile attack and Russian troop movements beyond Moscow’s territorial waters.
U.S. must provide additional funding to National Geospatial Intelligence Agency and National Reconnaissance Office to increase Arctic Ocean mapping and charting and satellite surveillance quality and timeliness.
NATO must explicitly include Arctic in Article 5 defense treat coverage, in NATO strategic planning and doctrine, and include an Arctic Section in NATO command structure and operations division.
Finland and Sweden must jettison morally relativistic Cold War neutrality and join NATO if they are serious about protecting national sovereignty. Failing to do this, NATO may decide not to defend these countries Arctic claims.

42. Recommendations for U.S. and NATO Allies
NATO countries must regularly patrol NSR by air and sea to prevent Russia from attempting to seize control of these waters.
State Department should appoint a special envoy or create an independent bureau with mission of explicitly promoting Arctic as an area of freedom of navigation and air flight and warn against consequences of allowing China and Russia controlling access to its waters and natural resources.
These policies consistent with Trump Administration America First stance and consistent with historic and contemporary U.S. and allied policies favoring international freedom of navigation and enhancing economic prosperity and national security of U.S. and allies.
Questions?