1. Recession and Recovery: A Look Into Our Economic Future First Coast Real Estate Economic Outlook Conference and Expo Jacksonville, FL March 23 rd, 2010

7. Credit Freeze Financial Market Sclerosis that developed into Credit Infarction Plunged the Economy Deep into Recession Quadruple Policy Bypass Averted a Worse Fate Interest Rate Cuts/ Quantitative Stimulus Stimulus Package I T.A.R.P. Stimulus Package II Rehabilitation / Ugly scar

8. U.S. Forecast U.S. has endured a Severe Recession The Great Recession is now over So why doesnt it feel like it? The credit freeze necessitated the quadruple policy bypass Recovery and rehabilitation underway Ugly scar on prominent display and slow to fade Labor market will take a long time to recover

9. U.S. Forecast What will be the shape of the recession and recovery? Alphabet soup: U-shaped, V-shaped, L-shaped or maybe W-shaped Sports equipment: Hockey stick

10. U.S. Economic Outlook 4 th Quarter 2009 Forecast

11. U.S. Economic Outlook IEC 1 st Quarter 2010 Forecast 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 Gross Domestic Product % Chg, Annual Rate 2.25.9* 2.62.12.22.5 Consumer Price Index % Chg, Annual Rate 3.63.42.1-0.21.51.4 Consumer Sentiment 68.470.272.173.272.272.4 Total Consumption % Chg, Annual Rate 2.81.22.4 3.02.7

16. Capital Continues to Flow into the U.S. Foreign countries have purchased U.S. government bonds at record levels. Will this continue as the U.S. runs deficits measured in the trillions of dollars? A return to crowding out?

17. Foreign Ownership of US Treasury Bonds Billions of Dollars Dec. 1984 Dec. 1989 Mar. 1994 Jun. 2005 Jun. 2006 Jun. 2008 Total outstanding 151523922508309333213621 Foreign- owned 333464884159917272211 Percent foreign- owned 22.019.435.251.752.061.1 Percent foreign official 56.052.661.767.570.276.2

18. U.S. Forecast Greatest risks to U.S. Economy may come from policy Sky Mall Policy

19. U.S. Forecast

24. Sky Mall Policies: T.A.R.P. Foreclosure Prevention Act 2008 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Stimulus act) Health Care Reform?

25. A look at the housing data: January 1994– January 2010

30. Florida Forecast Residential real estate showing signs of improvement. Sales up, prices still falling. Commercial real estate: wave of foreclosures poised to impact the sector Economic recovery in Q1 2010. Labor market to remain in a funk Short-run demographics hinder recovery Long run population growth rates lower

39. Region Population Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 0.9--- Deltona 0.210 Gainesville 0.86 Jacksonville 1.04 Lakeland 1.62 Miami 0.67 Naples 1.04 Ocala 2.31 Orlando 1.43 Palm Bay 0.58 Pensacola 0.49 Tallahassee 0.86 Tampa 0.95 2010-2013 Averages; Q4 2009 Forecast

40. Region Employment Growth Average % ChgRank Florida 1.6--- Deltona 1.16 Gainesville 0.68 Jacksonville 1.62 Lakeland 1.07 Miami 1.34 Naples 1.25 Ocala 1.53 Orlando 2.11 Palm Bay 1.16 Pensacola 0.68 Tallahassee 0.59 Tampa 1.62 2010-2013 Averages; Q4 2009 Forecast

41. Post-recession Outlook for Florida and Jacksonville in 2010

43. Sean M. Snaith Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D. Director Institute for Economic Competitiveness Sean@SeanSnaith.comWWW.IEC.UCF.EDUwww.facebook.com/seansnaith Twitter: @seansnaith Thank you