1. Climate Change Adaptation Planning – Next Steps?
Stewart Cohen
Environment Canada and University of British Columbia

2. Pathway for Adaptation Engagement (Source: Gardner et al., 2009)

3. Climate change information flow to stakeholders?3
Climate change information flow to stakeholders?
Climate Information
Forecasts
Trends
Scenarios
outreach
Stakeholder Interest
Regional development
Jobs
Liability
Quality of life

4. Modelling suite A.K.A. Our “time machine”
Impacts Modeling/Visualization Helps Explore Futures and Enable Dialogue on Responses
It allows us to “fast forward” through time and simulate impacts under different scenarios
We can also explore how actions (or lack) might affect future outcomes – enables dialogue with decision makers!
2009
2050
Modelling suite A.K.A. Our “time machine”
Slide from Harry Nelson

5. Climate Change: Pathway for Translation (adapted from Cohen, 2010)5
Climate Change: Pathway for Translation (adapted from Cohen, 2010)
Climate information
Forecasts
Trends
Scenarios
Filter / medium
Hydrology model
Forest model
Habitat model
Decision support
tool
Practitioner interest
Risk assessment
Design standards
Operating rules
Allocations
delivery
translation
Translation of climate change for practitioners and stakeholders, and the role of tools (filter/medium) in linking climate information and practitioner interest.

6. Climate Information flow to Practitioners6
Climate Information flow to Practitioners
Climate information
Forecasts
Trends
Scenarios
Filter / medium
Hydrology model
Forest model
Habitat model
Water demand model
Decision support
tool
outreach
delivery
delivery
Socio-Economic information
Forecasts
Trends
Scenarios
outreach
Translation of climate change for practitioners and stakeholders; there are several pathways for information. Note the separation of filters into 2 types: upper - represents tools that capture direct bio-physical impacts of climate change; lower -represents tools that incorporate both biophysical and socio-economic elements, including human behaviour, and so may link to climate information indirectly.
As practitioners receive information that is translated for their use, they can inform decision makers as part of their work. In this way, they act as ‘extension agents’ for science-based adaptation.
The new scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway), with corresponding SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway) would become part of this information flow, when they become available for application to impacts and adaptation assessment.
translation
Stakeholder Interest
Regional development
Jobs
Liability
Quality of life
Practitioner interest
Risk assessment
Design standards
Operating rules
Allocations
extension
policy
Adapted from Cohen and Waddell (2009); Cohen, (2010)

7. Care and feeding of climate change “extension agents”7
Care and feeding of climate change “extension agents”
…but what about those ‘filters’? How do those various impact models work together so that the whole impact/adaptation story is greater than the ‘sum of the parts’?

8. Horizontal integration – electricians talking to plumbers….
Inspired by Ken Day

9. Horizontal integration – San Jose Watershed RAC Project
Photo from Community Workshop, Williams Lake, March 23, 2012; Ngaio Hotte. Modelling framework from Harry Nelson.
Forest harvest scenario from Reg Davis, Forsite

10. Climate change adaptation – a challenge to be proactive (so we won’t get surprised again….)
Science can offer (uncertain but evidence-based) insights into future changes, but how does this information become part of ‘standard practice’?
Forest management – what trees to plant? Harvesting what/when? Fire? Pest? Invasive species?
Water management – urban, agriculture, habitat/in-stream?
WHOSE JOB IS IT?

11. Planned adaptation: what does success look like?
Climate change incorporated in:
A new water management plan?
A new forest management plan?
A new or updated OCP for Williams Lake?
Is this a change in language within existing plans or protocols?
A change in numbers (what numbers?)?
A change in equations, lines/curves, within models?
New thresholds for action (e.g. drought management plan)?
New levels of insurance (risk) coverage? Change in burden sharing between governments, private landowners?
New codes and standards for infrastructure?

12. Planned adaptation: some questions for discussion?
Incorporating climate change within existing planning and management processes
What are the entry points?
What agencies/organizations/person(s)?
Roles and responsibilities of governments, practitioners/professionals (and their governing bodies)?
What information would be needed to support planned adaptation?
Water demand?
Future economic development plans/proposals?
Local monitoring of streamflow, groundwater, other environmental indicators?
Research? Science? Decision-support?

13. Next steps?
Local actors?
Research community?
Others?
Milestones?