1. Domantas Jasilionis
RECENT DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN LITHUANIA: DETERMINANTS AND FUTURE SCENARIOS

2. DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH CENTRE_
The only Demographic Research Centre in Lithuania
Headed by Prof. Vlada Stankūnienė. 5 post-doctoral researchers.
Aim: to study changes and determinants of demographic processes (fertility, family, mortality, public health, migration, population structures, and ageing) in the historical, modern, and future perspectives.
Member of Population Europe Network
Past and ongoing projects with:
- UN, OECD, European Commission, other int. organizations.
- Leading international demographic research institutes
Close partnership with Statistics Lithuania and other governmental bodies.

3. DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES AND STRUCTURES_
Population change and age composition are formed by the three major demographic processes:
- fertility – births
- mortality – deaths
- migration – net-migration numbers
Past and present demographic processes determines current and future age composition of a population.
Demographic rates vs. absolute numbers rates – intensities of a process
absolute numbers – direct consequence for population size and structure

4. SPECIFICS OF MODERN DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES_
Fertility and mortality:
- gradual changes in the context of global processes such as improvement of education and changing economic structures short-time fluctuations: policies and economic crises
- increasing disparities between and within countries
- weakening relationship to national wealth (GDP)
International migration:
- unstable dynamics and difficult to measure - sensitive to changing political-economic context
- increasing variety (labour, illegal work, refugees…)
- increasing impact on population change.

5. DEMOGRAPHIC DISPARITIES AS OBSTACLE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
___
National averages hide important disparities between social within societies.
Unfavourable changes at the national level are related to concentration of problems in disadvantaged groups.
Persisting or increasing disparities  a threat for sustainable demographic change.
Demographic vanguards with best situation show the way for improvements for remaining population groups.

6. FERTILITY: DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDENDS FOR FUTURE
___

7. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN EUROPEAN UNION
___
TFR=2.1
Ensures replacement of generations
Total Fertility Rate
Average number of children born per women
Data sources: Statistics Lithuania, EUROSTAT, Human Fertility Database.

8. FERTILITY POST-PONEMENT INCREASE IN MEAN AGE AT FIRST BIRTH
___
Data sources: Statistics Lithuania, EUROSTAT, Human Fertility Database.

9. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN LITHUANIA, 1990-2016
___
TFR=2.1
Ensures replacement of generations
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

10. INCREASING FERTILITY RATES IN THE CONTEXT OF LOWER ABSOLUTE NUMBERS OF BIRTHS
Demographic dividend – born in the mid/late 1980s at ages years in 2017
Since early 2000s:
2x lower numbers
of births for lower number of women
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

11. LOWER NUMBERS OF BIRTHS – SMALLER COHORTS ENTERING LABOUR MARKET IN FUTURE
Hypothetical number of 18 year olds, derived from births 18 years ago.
Optimistic scenario, if:
- All newborns survive - Stay in Lithuania.
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

12. FERTILITY INCREASE: WOMEN WITH HIGHER EDUCATION TAKE A LEAD?
___
Total Fertility Rate, Average number of children born per women
Percentage increase: Higher education: %
Secondary education: %
Lower than secondary: +9%
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.
Jasilionienė, Stankūnienė, Jasilionis, 2016.

13. INCREASING SHARES OF HIGHLY EDUCATED INCREASING DEMOGRAPHIC INFLUENCE__
Changes in % of women with high education,
Higher Secondary Lower
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

14. ADVANTAGES OF WOMEN WITH HIGHER EDUCATION__
-- more stable families = lower probability of divorce
-- higher income -> higher economic safety higher gender equality at work and family
-- better chances to combine work and childcare
 better chances for childbearing at more advanced ages

15. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: MAIN REASON OF RECENT POPULATION DECLINE
___

16. EMIGRATION: NO SIGNS OF SLOW DOWN
2016: ~50 thou.
2017 (8 months):
~42 thou.
Complex process,
different stages:
Adaptation, settling,
family reunification
Strong migration networks in destination countries.
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

17. EMIGRATION: MAINLY ECONOMIC DRIVERS?
___
EMIGRATION: MAINLY ECONOMIC DRIVERS?
Lower educated: 40% higher emigration than among higher educated
Unemployed: 50% higher emigration than among employed
Higher Secondary Lower
Employed Unemployed
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

18. IMIGRATION AS AN ANSWER TO DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGES?
___
So far: immigration figures mainly reflect return migration of Lithuanian citizens. Complicated immigration procedures.
Focus of current debate: immigrants will help overcome demographic pressures for labour market.
Target countries: CIS: Belarus, Ukraine, Russia
No discussion on:
Short-term demographic benefits vs. moderate influence in a longer perspective
Direct and indirect costs (integration and family re-unification)
Ability to compete for highly qualified immigrants
Threats: failure to integrate, further social exclusion, illegal migrants
No systematic analyses of good and bad experiences

19. RETURN MIGRATION OF LITHUANIAN CITIZENS: NO HOPE FOR REAL RETURN?
___
More than 100 thou. returns of Lithuanian citizens during
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

20. IS REINTEGRATION OF RETURN MIGRANTS WORKING?
___
Former migration experience  2.2 x higher emigration chances
Experience of migration
No migration
experience
Data source: Statistics Lithuania.

21. MORTALITY: PERSISTING DISADVANTAGE IN MALE LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH
___

22. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH IN EU COUNTRIES
Persisting disadvantage in male life expectancy
Data source: Statistics Lithuania, The Human Mortality Database, 2017.

23. High burden of deaths among males at working age
___
Share (%) of 30 year males dying before 65th birthday
Lithuania
Estonia
Czech R.
Lithuania HIGH EDUC.
Germany
France
EVERY YEAR: ~5.5 thou. avoidable deaths at working ages due to mortality disparity Economic losses
Data source:
Statistics Lithuania
Human Mortality Database

24. UN population projections Scenario: net-migration=0
TOTAL POPULATION OF LITHUANIA:
Source: UN, 2017.

25. UN population projections Scenario: net-migration=0
LABOUR FORCE, AGE RANGES: AND YEARS
-100 thou. in less than 10 years.
Source: UN, 2017.

26. CRITICAL POINTS AND CONCLUSIONS
___
Due to a huge decline in births in last two decades, Lithuania is ALREADY facing huge challenges, currently badly affecting its educational system and labour force supply with youngest generations. The problem is likely to become even more serious in coming years.
Demographic dividend of the large birth cohorts born in the 1980s will slightly counter-balance overall decrease in labour force in coming 1-2 decades, but not in a longer perspective.

27. CRITICAL POINTS AND CONCLUSIONS
___
What is the answer to demographic challenges?
Systematic monitoring and forecasts
Family policies creating better chances to combine work and childbearing at more advanced ages.
Clever and realistic evidence-based immigration policies:
 estimation of benefits and costs
 understanding that immigration cannot solve demographic decline in a longer perspective.

28. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
___
This study has been funded by Research Council of Lithuania. Project: Demographic decline in Lithuania: patterns and mechanisms in the context of generational
change. Grant number: S-MIP