1. Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide Nick Allen VP and Research Director Gartner, Inc.

2. Conclusions Storage Networking will force organizational change SAN management is an evolving hodge-podge. SAM will stimulate demand for storage Hardware product differences will become mostly irrelevant Vendor support and development capabilities will determine the winners Heads Up

3. Network Parallels Directory (Who)DNSSNS AuthenticationLDAP,AD SNS, Fabric OS Location (Where)RouterFile meta data Privacy/SecurityVLAN, VPNZoning, LUN masking, ACLs Data serving? Block serving

4. Old Storage Holy Grails Data Path Box Another Box Cross-Box Pooling Outboard Backup Data Mover Appliance Disk Tape SAN BackupClientVirtualizationHosts Hosts Management and Data Virtual Volumes

5. Prediction: The Death of SCSI??? DAFS Announced VIA HBAs trialed High-Road trialed DAF prototypes InfiniBand becomes a factor SCSI still lives iSCSI becomes a factor Son of DAFS NFS Local FS DAFS Buffers Buffers FS Switch File System SCSI Driver SCSI Driver HBA Driver Buffer Cache Packet Buffers VI NIC Driver DAFS VIPL FS Switch NFS TCP/IP NIC Driver HBA NIC User Kernel Hardware DataControl 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Buffers Timing

6. Prediction: The Next Challenge: Storage Area Management (SAM) Definitions: 1 SAM is managing the relationship between applications and their storage and everything in between. 2SAM is the centralized management of resources and data across a storage domain(s), providing shared services to a group of servers and their applications. Good Idea

7. Storage Area Management SAN Management Application Database Database File System Virtualizer I/O Driver Virtualizer NIC/HBA Path Management Virtualizer Network Zone Management LUN Management Port LUN Masking Virtualizer RAID Management Network SAM What AM Issue

8. Storage Administrators and Consumers Please give me some more storage. How about another terabyte at 5:15? Yes, at 10:30 this morning Did my backup happen?

9. The Storage Engineer Master of All? Networks Storage Arrays Backup Restore Data Bases File Systems Operating Systems Troubleshooting Tuning Disaster Recovery People Vendor Tools Applications Switches Storage Resource Management Virtualization

10. Storage Networking TodayFC-SANs NAS iSCSI- SANs TechnologyTrigger Peak of InflatedExpectation Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Profitability As of 9/2001 VisibilityTime

11. Prediction: SAN Adoption Rate NAS SAN iSCSI SAN Fibre Channel Direct Attach 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 19981999200020012002200320042005

12. Prediction: NAS vs. SAN 0 10 20 30 40 50 $60 19981999200020012002200320042005 Year Dollars (in Billions) NAS SAN

13. No Electronics Microprocessors DRAM Disks Support equipment Cooling Power supplies Prediction: Areas of Product Differentiation Yes Architecture Software Integration/Testing Partnerships Packaging Service/Support Distribution Price

14. Three Places for Software Host Based Close to the application Can span storage arrays Needs re-architecting for SAN/distributed host awareness Appliance-Based Close to nothingClose to nothing Can span storage and hostsCan span storage and hosts Emerging styleEmerging style Out of data path bestOut of data path best Array Based Close to dataClose to data Can span hostsCan span hosts Needs re-architecting to span multiple arraysNeeds re-architecting to span multiple arrays

15. 100 percent data availability No single points of hardware failure Nondisruptive microcode updates Nondisruptive capacity upgrades Call-home capability Point in time Remote copy Networked Secure Prediction: New Storage Selection Criteria Good Idea

16. Prediction: Non-Product Criteria Become Paramount Solution packaging Ease of installation Low perceived risk Presales service SAM tools Service and support Sales experience Marketing partnerships Education Emotional factors Total cost of ownership (TCO) Nonproduct Product Tradeoff

17. Predictions: HPAQ Prediction Probability Deal goes through.4 Compaq EMA disk survives.9 FSAM prevails over ENSA.8 VersaStor lives.5 Market share drops > 2 points.9 LTO prevails over Super DLT.7 iSCSI is corporate direction.9

18. Focus on external storageFocus on external storage Deliver value-added featuresDeliver value-added features VersaStor architectureVersaStor architecture Common packagingCommon packaging Leverage service, system integration expertiseLeverage service, system integration expertise Buy and build S/W portfolioBuy and build S/W portfolio Will maintain #1 share in SANsWill maintain #1 share in SANs SAM dominant within baseSAM dominant within base Compaq market share, revenue baseCompaq market share, revenue base Technology depth in clusters, SANs, networks, file systems & R&DTechnology depth in clusters, SANs, networks, file systems & R&D ENSA StrategyENSA Strategy Expand market shareExpand market share New feature support of non- captive platformsNew feature support of non- captive platforms Sales and marketingSales and marketing Big BoxBig Box Deliver VersaStorDeliver VersaStor Complete S/W portfolioComplete S/W portfolio Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook Prediction: Compaq

19. Aggressive sales and marketingAggressive sales and marketing Rapid developmentRapid development Partnerships and acquisitionsPartnerships and acquisitions The EMC architecture(s)The EMC architecture(s) Defend market share (short term)Defend market share (short term) Gain through new features (long term), especially software, NAS and SANGain through new features (long term), especially software, NAS and SAN Collide with Veritas long termCollide with Veritas long term High marginsHigh margins R&D budgetR&D budget Rapid development sales forceRapid development sales force Acquisitions and PartnersAcquisitions and Partners Market CloutMarket Clout Maintaining product leadership & marginsMaintaining product leadership & margins Reinvigorated CompetitorsReinvigorated Competitors Symmetrix, CLARiiON, NAS positioningSymmetrix, CLARiiON, NAS positioning Customer relationshipsCustomer relationships SAM strategySAM strategy Prediction: EMC Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

20. Rebuild distribution channelsRebuild distribution channels Focus on e-commerceFocus on e-commerce Sell open SAN and SAMSell open SAN and SAM Partner for S/WPartner for S/W Slowly gain market shareSlowly gain market share Not an SAM architectural leaderNot an SAM architectural leader Hitachi ownership & investmentHitachi ownership & investment Reputation for product reliabilityReputation for product reliability Compatible value-added featuresCompatible value-added features Strategic alliancesStrategic alliances HP and Sun distributionHP and Sun distribution Time to marketTime to market Distribution channelsDistribution channels SoftwareSoftware New organizationNew organization Developing SAM strategyDeveloping SAM strategy Prediction: HDS Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

21. Focus on Enterprise IT and xSPFocus on Enterprise IT and xSP Symmetrix coexistenceSymmetrix coexistence Gain credibility for FSAM visionGain credibility for FSAM vision AcquireAcquire Expand non-HP Unix and NT shareExpand non-HP Unix and NT share Secure HP-UX marketSecure HP-UX market Eventual SAM dominant, but mostly captiveEventual SAM dominant, but mostly captive Account leverageAccount leverage Hitachi technologyHitachi technology HP value-added software/firmwareHP value-added software/firmware Unix and NT solution integrationUnix and NT solution integration Open SAN managementOpen SAN management Growing storage sales channelGrowing storage sales channel Off-platform awareness/market shareOff-platform awareness/market share Executing FSAMExecuting FSAM Prediction: Hewlett-Packard Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

22. Storage as a business unitStorage as a business unit Focus on storage networks and modular scalingFocus on storage networks and modular scaling Open APIs through JiroOpen APIs through Jiro Solaris-based storage managementSolaris-based storage management Open interoperabilityOpen interoperability Build credibility as storage vendorBuild credibility as storage vendor Focus on Sun, weak offFocus on Sun, weak off SAM player?SAM player? Worldwide install baseWorldwide install base SPARC/Solaris vertical integrationSPARC/Solaris vertical integration Strong Sun server growthStrong Sun server growth Build credibility as storage vendorBuild credibility as storage vendor Focus on Sun, weak off- base salesFocus on Sun, weak off- base sales Improve executionImprove execution Articulate SAM strategyArticulate SAM strategy ResourcesResources Prediction: Sun Microsystems Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

23. Global presenceGlobal presence ManufacturingManufacturing Sales forceSales force Software BaseSoftware Base iSCSI effortsiSCSI efforts IGSIGS Time to marketTime to market Regain market credibilityRegain market credibility Organizational turmoilOrganizational turmoil ProfitabilityProfitability Size and focusSize and focus ResourcesResources Articulate SAM strategyArticulate SAM strategy Prediction: IBM/Tivoli Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook PricePrice SolutionsSolutions Leverage Tivoli productsLeverage Tivoli products Open for a priceOpen for a price NAS aggressiveNAS aggressive Full VirtualizationFull Virtualization Maintain or slightly drop market share through 4Q01Maintain or slightly drop market share through 4Q01 Staying powerStaying power Herding pridesHerding prides SAM dominant on baseSAM dominant on base

24. Integrate piecesIntegrate pieces SolutionsSolutions Consolidate developmentConsolidate development Begin marketingBegin marketing AcquireAcquire Dark horseDark horse Steady progressSteady progress Incomplete solutionIncomplete solution Prediction: BMC New managementNew management Application-orientedApplication-oriented Many building blocks doneMany building blocks done Large installed baseLarge installed base Time to MarketTime to Market Expanding brandExpanding brand MarketingMarketing Finish out SAM layersFinish out SAM layers ResourcesResources Piece parts vs. packagePiece parts vs. package Bigger othersBigger others Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

25. PartnerPartner ExperimentExperiment AcquireAcquire Dominate in SANsDominate in SANs Eventual SAM playerEventual SAM player Collide with EMCCollide with EMC Prediction: Veritas Global presenceGlobal presence Platform neutralPlatform neutral Software baseSoftware base Large and growing momentumLarge and growing momentum SAN and virtualization leaderSAN and virtualization leader Articulate SAM strategyArticulate SAM strategy Time to marketTime to market Too many irons in fireToo many irons in fire Culture of fiefdomsCulture of fiefdoms Consistent supportConsistent support Merging product linesMerging product lines Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook

26. Focus on top down SAMFocus on top down SAM Involve enterprise and SSP customersInvolve enterprise and SSP customers Time to marketTime to market Hardware agnosticHardware agnostic PartnerPartner Dark horse with great SAM strategyDark horse with great SAM strategy Gain traction quicklyGain traction quickly Technology will show up in many productsTechnology will show up in many products Acquired or acquirer or partnerAcquired or acquirer or partner Prediction: InterSAN Experience with storage networksExperience with storage networks Time to marketTime to market NimbleNimble FundedFunded Product todayProduct today SizeSize Big SAM playersBig SAM players DistributionDistribution Changing hardware plethoraChanging hardware plethora PartnersPartners Total solutionTotal solution Assets Challenges Tactics Outlook Great Feature

27. Recommendations Think SAM, not SAN Understand requirements before selecting product/vendor. Buy full-featured storage only if you need the features. Focus on software and architecture as differentiation and highest impact. Include non-product criteria in selecting vendors. Users must balance vendors broader integrated solutions against lockouts. Best Practice Gotcha Dont Forget

28. Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide Nick Allen VP and Research Director Gartner, Inc. Questions?