1. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Transition management: its origin,evolution and critique Jan Rotmans, Derk Loorbach, René Kemp Berlin, 19-09-2007

2. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) NMP4 –TM basic a long-term orientation as framework for short-term policies.a long-term orientation as framework for short-term policies. dealing with uncertaintiesdealing with uncertainties keep options openkeep options open multi-domain and multi-actor approachmulti-domain and multi-actor approach focus on learning and innovationfocus on learning and innovation a specific role for governmenta specific role for government

3. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) NMP4 ICIS-MeritDuWoBo Energy Valley OVAM R3 Parkstad Limburg Energytransition KSI Drift Transforum PsibouwTransumo

4. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Theoretical basis Governance approachGovernance approach Insights fromInsights from - Complexity theory: dynamics of CAS - Sociology: social dynamics of change - Governance: patterns and practices of actors in networks Applied to transitions (in social CAS) and sustainable developmentApplied to transitions (in social CAS) and sustainable development Governance frameworkGovernance framework Multi-level meta-governance approachMulti-level meta-governance approach Set of systemic instrumentsSet of systemic instruments

5. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Monitoring, evaluating and adapting Developing sustainability images, coalitions and joint transition- agendas Problem structuring, envisioning and organizing transition-arenas Mobilizing actors and developing transition-experiments Governance framework Strategic (emphasis on system culture) Tactical (emphasis on system structures) Operational (emphasis on system practices)

6. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) TM – 2.0 complex systems and transitions thinking as analytical basiscomplex systems and transitions thinking as analytical basis long-term envisioning as framework for short-term actionlong-term envisioning as framework for short-term action multiple futures, images and pathwaysmultiple futures, images and pathways multi-actor approachesmulti-actor approaches taking multi-level dynamics into accounttaking multi-level dynamics into account creating protected (governance) niches for innovationcreating protected (governance) niches for innovation developing strategies to deal with the regimedeveloping strategies to deal with the regime focus on learning, experiment and innovationfocus on learning, experiment and innovation

7. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Misconception 1 transition management is social engineering transition management is not about designing a route planner, using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of determination using a Tom-Tom to achieve a fixed place of determination searching, learning, experimenting exploring new pathways in a reflexive manner

8. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Misconception 2 management means command & control transition management is not a form of planning to steer actors towards predefined, normative goals actors towards predefined, normative goals management here means creating space for frontrunners space for:envisioning joint agenda financial incentives small-scale experiments empowering niche-players scaling up experiments

9. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Misconception 3 socio-technical systems vs social systems transition management has not been applied to socio-technical systems but to societal sectors or regions systems but to societal sectors or regions no sailship but mobility sector; no biotechnology but agriculture not exploring the role of technologies but exploring the role of individuals and institutions

10. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Degree of purposiveness Degree of coordination Level of scale (high: society / low: subsystem of society) High aggregation Emergent Teleological Low aggregation High aggregation Low aggregatio n Low Coordination High Coordination Demographic Transition Economic Transition Revolutions From coal to gas ICT/internet From sailboat to steamship CivilizationGlobalisation Water transition Agricultural intensification (60s) Health insurance Transition to Sustainable Agriculture Energy transition Wind Energy supply Solar Energy supply Biomass energy supply Nuclear energy supply MobilityBiodiversity Biological Agriculture A typology of transitions

11. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Shove & Walker Caution 1 who are managing a transition and on whose behalf? who are managing a transition and on whose behalf? what are the everyday politics of transition management? what are the everyday politics of transition management? transition managers do not really existtransition managers do not really exist variety of transition players dealing with:variety of transition players dealing with: strategy, new coalitions, experiments, arrangements, bureaucratic matters, guidelines for practitioners tangled ball tangled ball government mostly initiator but not necessarilygovernment mostly initiator but not necessarily

12. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Caution 2 what is to be monitored and how frequently? what is to be monitored and how frequently? how to identify early warning signals? how to identify early warning signals? different stages of a transitiondifferent stages of a transition patterns and underlying mechanismspatterns and underlying mechanisms emergent properties of complex systememergent properties of complex system thresholds versus tipping pointsthresholds versus tipping points reflexive monitoringreflexive monitoring - shared problem perception - sustainability visions - social learning - emerging networks - behaviour of frontrunners

13. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Caution 3 how to respond to unsustainable transitions? how to respond to unsustainable transitions? how to deal with the death of undesirable systems? how to deal with the death of undesirable systems? persistent problems are symptoms of unsustainabilitypersistent problems are symptoms of unsustainability persistent problems are deeply rooted in our societypersistent problems are deeply rooted in our society persistent problems require radical system innovationspersistent problems require radical system innovations transition involves building up new structures andtransition involves building up new structures and decay of existing structures

14. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Caution 4 overly focus on technical systems and infrastructures, overly focus on technical systems and infrastructures, is a narrow slice of a wider social systemic change is a narrow slice of a wider social systemic change socio-technical case studies are different fromsocio-technical case studies are different from transition management case studies co-evolution of institutional, cultural, demographic,co-evolution of institutional, cultural, demographic, economic, ecological and technological determinants transition management was developed as an answertransition management was developed as an answer to the narrow focus of the socio-technical approach

15. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Meadowcroft abstract level of social systems as angle for tm abstract level of social systems as angle for tm and precise orientation of those systems and precise orientation of those systems persistency of system requires integrated systemspersistency of system requires integrated systems approach at the highest system level transition definition needs to be ambitious, challenging and concretetransition definition needs to be ambitious, challenging and concrete [ not from carbon emitting to carbon neutral ] divide overall theme in sub-themesdivide overall theme in sub-themes acute political struggle partly recognizedacute political struggle partly recognized

16. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Meadowcroft transition management is not synonymous with transition management is not synonymous with governance for sustainable development governance for sustainable development political machinery around sustainable developmentpolitical machinery around sustainable development Intergovernmental process [UN]Intergovernmental process [UN] transition management not part of thistransition management not part of this scope of transition management is limitedscope of transition management is limited but it can be applied to regions and citiesbut it can be applied to regions and cities

17. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Meadowcroft how to deal with lock-in and two-way options how to deal with lock-in and two-way options core of transition management is to experiment oncore of transition management is to experiment on a small-scale to reduce large-scale risk manage transition experimentsmanage transition experiments - deepening - broadening - scaling up transition experiments not around technology onlytransition experiments not around technology only

18. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Carbon capture and storage offers no permanent solution to the climate problem offers no permanent solution to the climate problem but complementary to energy conservation and but complementary to energy conservation and sustainable energy policies sustainable energy policies Platform New Gas with working group clean fossils positive advice on supporting clean fossils four project types: - CO2 capture and storage with coal/gas-fired electricity - storing CO2 from pure point sources such as industry - CO2-storage of energy generation based on coal/biomass - CO2-storage of natural gas extracted offshore first clean fossils experiment will start soon

19. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Carbon capture and storage SEC: Zero Emission Power PlantSEC: Zero Emission Power Plant NAM: CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas fieldNAM: CO2-storage in a nearby natural gas field NUON: CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass power plantNUON: CO2-separation and use in coal/biomass power plant Gaz de France: CO2-storage in natural gas field in North seaGaz de France: CO2-storage in natural gas field in North sea provisional scenarios have been developed from the Netherlands as CO2-hub till clean fossils remain marginal

20. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) International context is transition management typical Dutch? is transition management typical Dutch?NO because the underlying principles are generic because it is ad odds with the Dutch polder model and the consensus democracy BUT Its application is context-specific and culturally bound

21. Dutch Research Institute For Transitions (DRIFT) (www.drift.eur.nl) Conclusions TM is not a megalomaniac attempt to remake society TM is a new governance model for interactions between market, state and civil society to work towards a sustainability transition perspective incrementalism for sustainability results are encouraging but no evidence that it works