1. Yuri Rykov, Vladimir Feygin GAC scenario Workshop in combination with
WHERE GLOBAL SCENARIO FIELD IS MOVING – WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE GAS IN EU TRENDS
Yuri Rykov, Vladimir Feygin
GAC scenario Workshop in combination with
the meeting of the EU-Russia Energy Dialogue subgroup on scenarios and forecasts
May 14, 2013 Brussels

2. PRESENTATION PLAN
New realities in the world of energy. The change from forecasts to scenarios fields
Scenarios fields, systematic approach. Possible blueprint for analysis and building
Scenarios on primary energy supply in the World
Scenarios on gas supply in the EU and in the World
What are the problems and possible way further?

3. NEW REALITIES IN THE WORLD OF ENERGY
Globalization via complication and technologies development
Variety of primary energy sources, necessity to consider subdivisions. For example, gas: conventional, shale, coalbed, tight, hydrates (New Lens Scenarios by Shell)
Influence of energy sources to each other, examples:
Shale gas -> coal export in EU -> reduction in conv. gas
Shale gas -> gas in transport -> tech. influence -> increase in conv. gas
Virginia Tech. success in hydrogen production -> reduction in oil and possibly gas
Permanent change of hydrocarbon reserves map, examples:
USA shale gas & oil
Japan reserves of methane hydrates
Israel reserves of oil shales and offshore gas

4. FROM THE FORECASTS TO SCENARIOS FIELDS
Energy picture in the future will become more and more interweaved, with high level of interdependence
It will become more and more difficult in the future to speak separately about the “developments” of energy sources – thus the analysis in complex is necessary
Scenarios fields analysis and building is the way to assess the variety and uncertainties
Permanent monitoring is the way to deal with the variety of scenarios paths caused by scenarios fields

5. HOW THE BLUEPRINT FOR SCENARIOS FIELDS COULD BE VISUALISED (1)
1. Define the energy map for the WORLD, REGION, COUNTRY / SECTORS
RESOURSES EXTRACTION
PRIMARY ENERGY
SECONDARY ENERGY
FINAL ENERGY
USEFUL ENERGY
TOTAL
COAL
Biomass/Waste solids
Traditional biomass
OIL
Biofuel
NGL
GAS
Biomass gasified
NUCLEAR
RES
Hydro
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Others
HYDROGEN

6. HOW THE BLUEPRINT FOR SCENARIOS FIELDS COULD BE VISUALISED (2)
2. Define the possible bifurcation points in the future
ENERGY MAP
Stages of energy transformation
Types of primary energy
Time
Technological breakthroughs
Political decisions
Environmental issues …
POSSIBLE BIFURCATION POINTS
IMPORATNT PROBLEM:
There is a lack of enough
published balances
and technological data

7. SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. PRIMARY ENERGY
Shell – to 2050
IEA – to 2035
ExxonMobil – to 2040
BP – to 2030

8. SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. PRIMARY ENERGY SHARES 2030

9. SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. FINAL ENERGY
IEA – to 2035
ExxonMobil – to 2040
Shell - Bifurcation point is passed
Low PED scenarios: 450, fossils -> nucl.+RES – UNLIKELY
Shell, IEA – Bifurcation point ~2020
High PED scenarios: Oceans, CPS, oil -> coal
Exxon - Bifurcation point ~ 2025
Medium PED scenarios: Exxon, BP, Mountains, NPS,
oil (Exxon coal) -> gas

10. SOME WORLD ENERGY TENDENCIES. CO2 EMISSIONS
Shell – to 2050
IEA – to 2035
ExxonMobil – to 2040
CO2 emissions could be good indicator of Bifurcation points

11. TENDENCIES IN WORLD GAS DEMAND
Shell – to 2050
IEA – to 2035 11
ExxonMobil – to 2040
BP – to 2030

12. WORLD ENERGY RATES OF GROWTH 2030
TPED 12
COAL
OIL
GAS

13. EU ENERGY ROADMAP 2050 SCENARIOS
Mtoe
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
CPI
GIC
1723
1752
1700
1629
1618
1615
Gas
393
443
372
369
364
354 EE
1753
1644
1452
1269
1084
365
348
315
257 HR
1679
1510
1317
1134
382
286
210

14. EU 2020 AND 2030 PRIMARY ENERGY SHARES

15. IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS DEMAND

16. PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS DEMAND. IEA & ExxonMobil
EU gas demand is projected to ~ 550 mtoe in

17. IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU GAS FINAL CONSUMPTION

18. IEA. COMPARISON OF EU & WORLD GAS FINAL CONSUMPTION
EU looks as having more high electricity share than the world

19. IEA. PROJECTIONS OF EU CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GAS

20. EU ENERGY RATES OF GROWTH
TPED
COAL
GAS
OIL
RES
NUCLEAR

21. POSSIBLE OBSERVATIONS FROM SCENARIOS ANALYSIS
The world comes to the path when new technologies tend to introduce rather new types of primary sources then to increase efficiency
There is a bifurcation point ~2020 when the switching to scenario type “Oceans” is possible with the reduction of gas prospects
Another bifurcation point (~2025) is the possibility to realize Exxon scenario when oil’s share will be preserved, but gas prospects does not change
World trend is to increase the demand of primary energy and to more usage of natural gas – most dynamic PES
CO2 question is still pending (future bifurcation point)

22. CONCLUSIONS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SCENARIO ANALYSIS PERFORMING
Data analysis could give quantitative assessment to the processes of world energy evolution
Overtly published data are not enough
Scenarios method could include
Determining bifurcation points
Calculation of MANY variants with respect of this structure – MAP of possibilities
Constant monitoring in order to reduce variety
To fulfill such activity it seems necessary to organize specialized body

23. INTERNET PORTAL AS THE INSTRUMENT FOR SCENARIOS ANALYSIS
My queries
Scenarios and forecasts
Demand/ Consumption
Production
Balance
Prices
Trade
Macroeconomics
View & edit scenarios data
Forum

24. THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION