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MIP Indicators: International Comparison

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Presentation on theme: "MIP Indicators: International Comparison"— Presentation transcript:

1 MIP Indicators: International Comparison
ESTP Course Luxembourg 9-11 December 2014 Insook Jeong, MIP TF

2 MIP indicators: International comparison
Application of MIP framework to non-EU countries (ex) US, Japan, Korea, Indonesia ... Scope of comparison - 7 MIP headline indicators & 1 auxiliary indicator - Selection criteria: Common definition, Methodological comparability

3 MIP indicators: International comparison
Data sources - Preferably, international organization DBs (IMF, OECD, WTO, Eurostat) - National sources for underdeveloped indicators (ex. House price index) Limitation - Thresholds: Interpret with caution! - First step to broad economic reading

4 MIP indicators: International comparison
Current account balance (3-yr MA, -4/6%) USA Japan Korea Indonesia *Source: IMF PGI db

5 MIP indicators: International comparison
Net int'l investment position (% of GDP, -35%) USA Japan Korea Indonesia *Source: IMF PGI db

6 MIP indicators: International comparison
Real effective exchange rate (3-yr % change, +/-5% and +/-11%) USA Japan Korea *Source: EU DG ECFIN (42 economies, HICP deflator)

7 MIP indicators: International comparison

8 MIP indicators: International comparison
Export market share (5-yr % change, -6%) USA Japan Korea Indonesia *Source: WTO

9 MIP indicators: International comparison
Nominal unit labour cost (3-yr % change, 9% & 12%) USA Japan Korea *Source: OECD labour productivity db

10 MIP indicators: International comparison
House price index (3-yr % change, nominal) USA Japan Korea *Sources: USA, Fed. Housing Finance Agency; Japan, Min. of Land, Infrastructure & Transport; and Korea, Kukmin Bank. Now the next three indicators concern internal balances. First, HPI. The headline indicator (6%) is the deflated one (w/CPI), and the auxiliary indicator is nominal. For data sources, I had to rely on national sources, as there is no int'l organization producing it; US-Federal Housing Finance Agency (new purchases only); J- Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, and Transport; and Korea, government-owned Kukmin Bank (purchase price). All these organizations are the official compilers of house prices in each country. For Indonesia, I couldn't find equivalent data. This is the 3-year nominal HPI trend. In US, 2013 is the only year that house prices recovered from the level of three years ago. In Japan, house prices continue to decrease. On the other hand, in K, house prices are rising briskly. (Money invested in K real estate market will generate a decent level of return.) Comparing it with EU countries, the auxiliary indicator (3-yr % change) of HPI in EU countries – Threshold of real index

11 MIP indicators: International comparison
General government debt (% of GDP, 60%) USA Japan Korea *Source: IMF PGI db

12 MIP indicators: International comparison
Unemployment rate (3-yr avg., 10%) USA Japan Korea Indonesia *Source: IMF PGI db

13 Useful links IMF PGI website
WTO trade statistics OECD national accounts and labour database


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