1. Chican@/Latin@ Politics Professor Brad Jones UC-Davis

2. Some “Overtime” Analysis
Let’s consider some of the data from last week in temporal perspective.
Party having most concern is a useful item to consider.
It foreshadows the future, possibly…

3. Pew Surveys
Survey item asks: which party has the most concern for Latino issues.
Survey respondents are all
I present some displays of partisan affiliation and party concern.

4. Party having most concern for Latino Issues, 2002, 2004, 2006

5. Implications? Findings?
This slide has some interesting stuff in it.
Note the change over time; in some sense there is not much.
However, note the drop in 2006 in the no difference category.
Where do these respondents go to?
Dem. Increases, Rep. Decreases
BUT, DK increases primarily: this suggests some ambiguity on the issue.
One way to think about this is this: there is a lot of uncertainty on this issue among Latinos about who will serve their interests best. Dems make gains, slightly. But still, there exists a lot of uncertainty (Evinced by DK category)
Side-trip to partisanship

6. Party affiliation among Latinos with and without leaners

7. Main Points
There actually is a noticeable difference when accounting for leaners (not unpredictable)
Latino leaners go more in favor of Democrats when pushed.
To think of Latinos as monolithic partisans, however, is clearly wrong. (Cubanos relevant here)
Independent streak is fairly strong
Now control for partisanship on “best party” question.

8. Party Having Most Concern: Republican Identifiers

9. What?
The previous slide looks at the “most concern” question for Republicans.
At least from 2004 to 2006, it is clear Republican identifiers are moving more readily to the Democratic or “DK” camps.
Implication: Republicans are moving away from the party (at the margins)
Next, Democrats

10. Party Having Most Concern: Democratic Identifiers

11. What? Democratic identifiers clearly see the Dems as the best party.
However, the shift from the “no difference” category is clearly toward the Dem. Party.
I think what we’re seeing among Democrats is a decrease in uncertainty about who is best able to deal with Latino issues.
What about Independent identifiers, of which there are a ton for Latinos?

12. Party Having Most Concern: Independents

13. What? Look at the drop in “no difference” category?
And then look at the gain in Democratic category once we factor out Leaners.

14. Questions This is just a two-variable analysis What oth
Here is what I see…

15. Questions
If you don’t account for partisanship, the number of respondents claiming NO DIFFERENCE substantially drops…
But the increase is mostly in the DK category
However, when accounting for partisanship, there seems to be a movement, at the margins, to the Democratic side (certainly between 2004 and 2006)
This has, in my view, really cool implications…

16. Questions
The GOP scorch and burn policy will, at the margins, be a disastrous policy
Framing of Latino issues seems to be pushing Latinos more to Democratic side
Long term: Marginalizing Latinos will have extraordinarily bad consequences for the GOP
Yeah, I’m stretching, but I think we can sustain this inference…

17. Some Links that May Be Helpful for Projects
Pew:
NAHJ Brown Out Reports