1. OPPORTUNITIES FOR LATIN AMERICA?

2. THE WAR ON TERROR U.S.-imposed rules of the game
Co-existence with geo-economic game
Ideological divisions: left, right, center
Prevalence of democratic discourse
Focus on “strategic options”
Unavailable alternatives:
Bolivarian dream of collective unity
Rule of international law, organizations

3. 1. TURN TO THE NORTH Vicente Fox (Mexico)
Hopes for immigration reform
NAFTA constraints
Opposition throughout Latin America
Comrades in the War on Terror
Colombia
Guatemala
The FTA Club
Chile [special case]
Central America + DR
Peru
Panama

4. 2. SUBREGIONAL HEGEMONY Brazil (Lula + Dilma) Venezuela (Chávez)
Grandeza brasileira
Role in Haiti
Resistance to FTAA
Venezuela (Chávez)
ALBA (Alternativa Bolivariana para las Américas)
International assistance programs
Alliances with Cuba and “pink tide” countries
Denunciations of Bush and USA
Resistance to FTAA (r.i.p.)

5. 3. REVOLUTIONARY OPTIONS?
Cuba (Castros)
Armed rebellion no longer a path
Fatigue of revolutionary society
Institutionalization of charisma
Venezuela (Chávez)
“Socialism for the 21st Century”
Linkage to Cuba and Fidel
Bolivia (Morales)
Indigenismo
Politics of ethnic reivindicación

6. 4. THIRD WORLD SOLIDARITY
Brazil (Lula)
WTO
Group of 20+ (a.k.a. 21)
G3, G5
Venezuela (Chávez)
Non-Aligned Movement
UN Security Council
Petroleum exporters (including Iran)

7. 5. OUTSIDE THE HEMISPHERE
Europe
Divisions over Iraq
Concern about EU future
FTAs with Mexico, Chile
Distancing from/by Spain
Asia
Withdrawal of Japan
Eruption of “China fever”
PRC “strategic partnerships” with Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico; “cooperative partnership” with Chile, “friendly and cooperative relations” with Cuba
Iran?
Really?

8. ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS Exports to China, 2008: Liberation from IMF:
Argentina 9.0%
Brazil 12.4%
Chile %
Mexico %
Cuba 18.4%
Liberation from IMF:
Argentina 2005 ($9.8 bn)
Brazil ($15.5 bn)
IMF “relegated to sidelines”

9. POLITICAL DIMENSIONS Distaste for GWB and U.S. policies
Resuscitation of Cuba
Regional organizations w/o USA:
Rio Group (1986, 23 members)
Latin American Summit on Integration and Development (2008, 33 members)
CELAC (2010, 33 members)
Ibero-American Summits (1991)
MERCOSUR (1991, 4 members plus)
UNASUR (2005)

10. BILATERAL DIMENSIONS Argentina: “a distant relationship”
Brazil: “getting better all the time”
Chile: “cooperative friendship”
Colombia: “strategic partners or uncertain allies?”

11. DISTINCTIONS?
Regional: South America vs. Mexico/Central America/Caribbean
Political A: Right vs. Left
Political B: Moderate vs. Radical
U.S. Power: Diminished or Unused?

12. THE BENEFITS OF
INATTENTION?