1. A Family Affair: Jerome Stein (Father, Econ) and Seth Stein (Son, Geo)

2. Natural Hazard Assessment
Events are often more powerful or damaging than expected.
Sometimes, mitigation measures are not designed for the impact.
Selecting mitigation strategies
Hazard assessments have large uncertainties
How much mitigation is enough?
Best discussed using cost/benefit analysis
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3. Calculating Risk Cost of mitigation Scale of natural hazard
C(n), where n is a measure of the level of mitigation.
Scale of natural hazard
h, such as the height of a storm surge, an earthquake’s magnitude, or the level of the resulting ground shaking.
Predicted annual economic loss,
L(h,n) increases with h and decreases with n.
The annual probability of an event h
p(h), the occurrence of events of a certain size
The value of the expected loss (RISK) is:
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4. Calculating the financial investment (lost potential)
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5. The Optimum Mitigation
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6. K(n)
(Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

7. K(n) or
C’(n)
Q’(n)
(Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

8. K(n)
K(n) or
C’(n)
Q’(n)
(Stein and Stein, 2013, GSA Today)

9. (Walker et al., 2010; reproduced in Cox, 2012)

10. Communicating Uncertainty
(Stein and Geller, 2012, EOS)
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11. Communicating Uncertainty
(Stein and Geller, 2012, EOS)
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12. (Stein and Stein, 2013, EOS)
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