1. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

2. Sense, Shape and Respond to Demand John Bermudez Senor Director, SCM Product Strategy

3. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential The following is intended to outline our general product direction. It is intended for information purposes only, and may not be incorporated into any contract. It is not a commitment to deliver any material, code, or functionality, and should not be relied upon in making purchasing decisions. The development, release, and timing of any features or functionality described for Oracles products remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.

4. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Demantra Demand Management Enables real time demand sensing and shaping … Sense demand real-time Improve forecast accuracy Shape demand for profitability Evolve to real-time sales and operations planning

5. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Improve Forecast Accuracy Engine supports all statistical models - Complexity is hidden for casual users but can be fine- tuned by statisticians Self-tuning engine Better than best-fit model with unlimited causal factors Use key accuracy metrics –MPE, MAPE, WMAPE (Weighted MAPE) Self-Tuning Forecasting Engine PhD in a box: advanced statistical models Built-in key accuracy metrics Designed for planners, not programmers (PhD in a box)

6. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Improve Forecast Accuracy Mixed models used in same time series adjust for multiple causal factors including seasonality, market trends, and promotions Each model contributes different forecast characteristic to the overall model Automatic model selection provides improved accuracy of best fit approaches –One forecast based on multiple models instead of only using best-fit model –Self-tuning engine Forecast trees automatically find level with statistically relevant data –Forecasts stored at lowest level –Proportion rules applied when necessary Can incorporate external information such as weather, market drivers, forward indicators, and competitive data Causal Analysis Outlier Detection Promotion Events Seasonality Cyclical Patterns Trend Historical data Bayesian Estimator Forecast Multiple causal factors Combined model Bayesian Optimizer Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option

7. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Automatic Short/Long Term Forecast Accuracy Mixed models automatically adapt in single, precise forecast Model 2Model 4 Model 2 Model 11

8. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential MAPE – Mean Absolute Percent Error Improve Forecast Accuracy MPE - Forecast Bias WMAPE – Weighted MAPE by revenue, cost, and so on Built-in accuracy metrics

9. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential The Difference is in the Details Demand history and causal factors maintained at lowest level Coefficients calculated and maintained at the lowest level for which there is demand history Forecasts and promotion predictions reflect local, regional, product group customer, time period, sensitivity, and so on Demantra approach yields most granular analysis of demand for more accurate forecasts Product/Group Item Item at a Customer Item at a Customer/Ship-to A Item at a Customer/Ship-to B Demand history Promotion Lift Seasonality Cannibalization Other Causal Factors Demand history Promotion Lift Seasonality Cannibalization Other Causal Factors Per time period (week/day/month) Granular causal factors and coefficients

10. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Oracle Demantra Demand Management Products Demand Management Statistical forecasting Causal factors New product introduction (NPI) Reporting and analysis Collaboration platform - alerts and exceptions Unlimited hierarchies, dimensions, levels, and attributes Mixed and multiple demand signals Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling Computation and display of Individual causal contribution Impact analysis of events Cross-correlative Analysis Attribute based forecasting Promotion and sales calendars Nodal tuning Unlimited causal factors NPI - Shape modeling and alignment Additional and improved forecasting models Advanced reporting (Gantt charts for deals, trade, promotions, price breaks, and so on) Summary of product capabilities

11. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Demantra Demand Management Enables real time demand sensing and shaping … Sense demand real-time Improve forecast accuracy Shape demand for profitability Evolve to real-time sales and operations planning

12. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Shape Demand for Profitability New products present forecasting challenges –Limited or no demand history for a given item –May combine characteristics of several previous products –Price points, changing market conditions may be different –Product demand changes over product life cycle Chaining New Product C = 30% Product A + 75% Product B Shape Modeling Apply shapes, scaled for volume and time Re-scale base on initial demand data Attribute-Based Forecasting Model new item based on past behavior of other items with similar attributes Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

13. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Shape Demand for Profitability Derive forecast for new product and adjust forecast based on actual demand Automatically detect outliers View demand of comparable products based on characteristics Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data

14. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Shape Demand for Profitability What incremental volume will result from a marketing program? How will it impact the sales of other products? How does a marketing program at a brand or product family level impact a specific item? What were the indirect effects such as cannibalization and consumer stockpiling? What is the ROI on my marketing and trade spending? What is the predicted impact of future activity? How does a promotion impact shipments and DC replenishments? PastFuture Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact of promotions and sales incentives

15. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Shape Demand for Profitability Baseline versus incremental volume –Provides decomposition of incremental volume from advertising, promotions, or sales incentives Granular lift analytics –Incremental volume lift coefficients maintained at lowest level –Localized promotion analysis –Allows shipments/replenishments to be adjusted by ship-to location Cross product and customer effects –Determines cross-product cannibalization impact –Adjusts forecasts for product and customer cannibalization Configure system for assumption based forecasting –Structured tracking and categorization of forecast adjustment reasons, such as market and geopolitical changes –Evaluation of impact on demand as driver for future forecasts –Examples Semicon: forecast based on chip design wins High-Tech: forecast based on probability of winning an opportunity Life Sciences: long-term forecast based on drug approval and patent regulations Baseline Incremental Competitive switching Long term growth Pre and Post promotion effect Cross product cannibalization TypicalDemantra AFDM Baseline Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact of promotions and sales incentives

16. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Demantra Demand Management Enables real time demand sensing and shaping … Sense demand real-time Improve forecast accuracy Shape demand for profitability Evolve to real-time sales and operations planning

17. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Evolve to Real-Time S&OP Customers Suppliers Develop predictable business plans Shape demand to meet financial goals Align supply chain to support plan Monitor performance to plan Shape demand to close gaps Drive decisions into ERP FinanceSupply Chain Sales Marketing Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets

18. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Shape Demand – Real-Time S&OP Identify financial and revenue goals Analyze demand and develop sales forecast Synchronize plan across Finance, Sales, Marketing, and Supply Chain Determine potential market variables Review supply and demand plans Develop constrained plan Monitor results and respond to deviations Create promotions and incentives to shape demand and close gaps Marketing Manufacturing Finance Executives Product Development Strategic plansProfitability Promotional and volume plans Service levels Demand plansInventory levelsCapacity plans Promotion effectiveness Phase in and phase out products Plan accuracy Strategic Tactical Decisions Sales Make demand and supply decisions simultaneously

19. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Evolve to Real-Time S&OP Seeded templates for S&OP collaboration –Seeded consensus planning worksheets –Easily tailored to your business Configurable and extensible –Collaborate at any level Manage by exception instantly –Exceptions and visual cues easily point to important issues immediately –Document all assumptions with a complete audit trail of decisions taken –Leverage POS data to alert planners to exceptions real time (versus batch month by month) Integrated –Seeded data streams for data commonly used in the process Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets

20. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Evolve to Real-Time S&OP Continuous real-time process –Simulate demand and supply strategies –Analyze multiple business scenarios –Achieve consensus on plans through internal collaboration –Generate and analyze exceptions –Use workflow to automate process Adaptable –Custom demand and supply streams –Multi-dimensional –Extensible hierarchies and dimensions –User-defined reports and exceptions Highly interactive simulation and analysis

21. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Inputs display from entire collaboration group – Finance, Marketing, Operations, Key Customers and Suppliers Integrated approval workflow process Each S&OP participant has a configurable role- based view Review historical accuracy for each input Evolve to Real-Time S&OP

22. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Achieve Incremental Value Demand Management E-Business Suite Advanced Planning Inventory Optimization Strategic Network Optimization Advanced Supply Chain Planning Predictive Trade Planning and Optimization Real-Time Sales and Operations Planning Collaborative Planning Production Scheduling Demand variability and forecast error Demand scenarios Promotional lift and decomposition Range forecast and forecast accuracy Shipment history Booking history Sales forecast Manufacturing forecast Items and categories Organizations Customers Calendars UOM and currency conversions Price lists Hierarchies (product family and product category, time, ship from, geography, customer, demand class, sales channel) Demand scenarios and priority Implement additional Advanced Planning components quickly by leveraging the same foundation

23. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Customers

24. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Company Leading manufacturer of medical devices Manufactures more than 25,000 SKUs and operating from 25 plants and office around the world$1 billion in revenues, operating worldwide Planning problem solved Aligned customer demand with supply chain planning Unique aspects of implementation Integrated with JD Edwards ERP Supports the companies many new product introductions with improved forecast accuracy Increased forecast accuracy by 5-10% Increased customer service levels Reduced inventory by 8% Enabled a comprehensive S&OP process Live on Demand Management DeRoyal Industries

25. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Company Leading producer of juices and jams Planning problem solved Promotion planning synchronized with demand planning Unique aspects of implementation Sales reps drive forecasting process from trade promotion planning process What-if scenario planning enables sales reps to test promotion before selecting it Increased forecast accuracy at SKU level Enables trade promotion planning to be integrated with RT S&OP Reduced supply chain costs Improved HQ and sales planning productivity Live on Demand Management, Trade Management Welchs

26. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Company $1 billion in revenues, operating worldwide Manufacturing plants in China Leading provider of cordless phones and electronic childrens toys Planning problem solved Real-time S&OP process driven by one demand number Unique aspects of implementation Generates forecasts from customer POS data Compares customer and generated forecasts and routes exceptions to planner, sales representative, or customer Increased order fill rate from 55% to 95% Increased inventory turns by 100% Reduced price protection claims by 40% Reduced logistics costs by 65% Live on Demand Management, Real-Time S&OP VTech

27. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Summary

28. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Oracle Demantra Demand Management Sense demand real-time –Sense demand more frequently, closer to the point of consumption –Capture demand and forecast at more granular level (store, shelf, attributes, product characteristics) –Achieve consensus demand number more quickly by involving all constituents at the same time, including customers –Quickly identify and react to demand changes and exceptions Improve forecast accuracy –Leverage advanced statistics for more accurate demand number –Use any combination of quantitative or qualitative data to establish your base line forecast –High precision statistical forecasting, no statistical background required – Superior Bayesian-Markov forecast analytics –Forecast based on attributes and characteristics –Leverage Advanced Forecast Modeling for promotion lift decomposition and causal analysis Shape demand for profitability –Plan new product introductions –Plan promotions and sales incentives –Identify cross selling opportunities Evolve to real-time S&OP –Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets Shipments Marketing forecast Order history CHANNEL DATA Customer sales Collaboration Workbench Demand Hub and Seeded Worksheets Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting

29. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Oracle Demantra Demand Management Eliminate spreadsheets Manage rolling forecasts Collaborate with all constituents on one number Use basic statistics, alerts, and seeded worksheets Tailor worksheets for individual users Leverage POS and channel data Forecast new product introductions Collaborate with customers Use advanced statistics and causal factors Complex alerts and custom worksheets Forecast based on attributes and product characteristics Compute promotional lifts and analyze impact of demand drivers Assumption based forecasting From less complex to best in class Manage rolling forecasts Collaborate with all constituents on one number Use basic statistics, alerts, and seeded worksheets Tailor worksheets for individual users Leverage POS and channel data Forecast new product introductions Collaborate with customers Use advanced statistics and causal factors Complex alerts and custom worksheets Manage rolling forecasts Collaborate with all constituents on one number Use basic statistics, alerts, and seeded worksheets Tailor worksheets for individual users Start anywhere Evolve at your own pace to a best-in-class solution

30. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential Proven, scalable demand management solution Integrated demand, supply, and sales and operations planning Designed for planners, not programmers Integrated performance management Why Oracle !

31. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential A Q & Q U E S T I O N S A N S W E R S

32. © 2006 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential