1. Case Study 3 – China’s One Child Policy

2. Chinese Demographics
More people live in China than the combined population of:
Europe
North America
South America
Japan
Any population change in China has global impact:
1980s: About million people were added each year
1990s: Average of 13 million people were added each year
2000s: 10 million people per year
Towns and Cities
400 million live in cites
30-35% of the population (58% in the US live in cities)
rural (countryside) areas
950 million live in the countryside
64% of the population (42% in the US live outside of large cities)

3. The Population of China 0-2050 AD
1.6 Billion
1.4 Billion
1.2 Billion
1 Billion
800 million
Source: Zhao, 1994.
600 million
400 million
200 million

4. Chinese Population, 1949-2000 (projections to 2050)
1.5 billion
1.3 billion
1.1 billion
900 million
Source: China Population Information and Research Center, 2000.
700 million
500 million

5. Population of Selected Chinese Provinces, 1998
KEY Grey Bars- Foreign countries Red Bars- Chinese states

6. One Child Policy propaganda poster
Chinese Demographics
Problems with controlling population growth:
The population grew very quickly after 1949.
Population control was not seen as important as setting up a communist government.
Mao Zedong saw population growth as a good way to fight the Soviet Union and the United States.
The Communists called on women to “breed for the motherland”.
One Child Policy propaganda poster

7. The majority of Chinese live in the area that is circled in the East.
Chinese Demographics
Population distribution
Excessive concentration in the eastern part of China
50% of the population lives on 8.2% of the land.
Bulk of the population lives along the coast.
East China accounts for 90% of the population.
56%, about 728 million, are living in mountainous areas.
The majority of Chinese live in the area that is circled in the East.

8. Chinese Demographics 1990 and 2000 Census
Counted billion Chinese in China.
Population was moving to the cities
The percentage of urban (city) population had increased from 20.6% in 1982 to 26.2% by 1990.
An increase of 5.6% in just eight years.
Why did so many people move to the cities?
Jobs
Greater opportunity
Government’s departure from socialist methods of production in the secondary sector.
Results of the 2000 census
Go to:

9. Chinese Demographics Current issues
Population growth hurts Chinese development in:
Education
Health
Transportation
Acceleration of urbanization at the expense of farmland
loss of 10% of China’s farmland since 1978
About 10 million people reach the employment market each year.

10. Acres of Farmland per Person
Source: World Bank

11. Family Planning Prior to the One Child Policy
Early 1970s: “later-longer-fewer program”.
Age of marriage
25 for men
23 for women
Reasoning?
Wait later to begin their families
allow for longer spacing in between children
have fewer children overall.
Began to reduce fertility levels.
Problem? Not fast enough to really slow down population growth due to the momentum that had already developed.
End of 1970s: “One is best, at most two, never a third”
Government began to promote the two-child family throughout the country.
Problem? Slogan Contributed to fertility decline but, again, not rapidly enough.

12. One Child Policy propaganda poster
Launched in 1981 when the population reached 1 billion.
Initial goal: Stabilize China’s population at 1.2 billion.
Revised goal: Keep China’s population under 1.4 billion until 2010.
Population expected to stabilize around 1.6 billion by 2050.
Under the responsibility of the State Family Planning Commission (SFPC).
Great variations in performance between the country’s urban and rural areas.
Easier to enforce in China because it was a totalitarian state
Would have been impossible in most other places.
One Child Policy propaganda poster

13. Family Planning Regulations of the policy
Employers and neighborhood committees had to enforce guidelines.
1) Young people needed permission to get married:
25 years for male and 23 years for female.
Students and apprentices are not allowed to marry until they finish their studies.
2) The government monitored women’s menstrual cycles.
3) The use of birth control was required by the government:
UID used for women with already one child.
Incentives for sterilization after the birth of the first child.
Couples with two or more children had to have one partner sterilized (women 80% of the time).
4) All pregnancies must be authorized:
Unauthorized pregnancies had to be aborted.
7th, 8th or 9th month abortions are legal.

14. Family Planning Incentives offered to couples with only one child:
Monthly allowances paid to couples with only one child.
Child entitled to free educational and medical services.
Disincentives (penalties) used to discourage larger families:
Fine up to 15% of annual income.
Couples forced to give up all privileges if a second child was born and had to repay any cash awards it had received.
A third child denied free education, subsidized food, and housing privileges.
A third child’s parents would be penalized with a 10% reduction in wages.

15. Family Planning Urban areas or cities Rural areas or the countryside
Small sized apartments.
Improving one’s status and level of consumption.
Easier control from the government.
Rural areas or the countryside
Families want more children to work the family plots and support their parents when they get old.
Want sons who will continue the family line and provide ritual sacrifices to their ancestors after they die.
Daughters are leaving their family once they marry.
Girls account for only 20 to 30% of a new demographic class in some areas.

16. Percentage of Women Having More Than One Child, 1998
The One Child Policy has:
Prevented about 300 million births since 1980.
When the program began (1970), Crude Birth Rate was 34 and TFR was around 6.
Been brought down to 10 (CBR) and 1.7 (TFR).
About 40% of Chinese women have been sterilized.
Only about 5% of women have more than one child.
Source: China Population Information and Research Center, 2000.

17. Chinese Fertility Rate, 1949-1998 (TFR means the # of Children Born per Woman)
Source: China Population Information and Research Center, 2000.

18. Family Planning Imbalanced sex ratio Psychological consequences:
Male children are more valued.
120 boys for 100 girls (national average).
Abandon or abortion of females.
“Missing female population” as girls are not declared.
2000: About 900,000 girls were missing (0 to 4 years group).
Only 1% of females are unmarried by the age of 30.
Psychological consequences:
Currently around 70 million single child.
4-2-1 syndrome (4 grand parents – 2 parents – 1 child):
“Little emperors” or “little empresses”.
Self-centrism.
Pressure to succeed.

19. Family Planning A new family planning law started in 2002.
Same goal than the One-child policy, but offer more flexibility:
One child, but permission may be granted for a second under specific circumstances.
Late marriage and childbearing.
More flexibility for provinces, autonomous regions and minorities.
People in reproductive age have to use contraception (birth control).
Provisions for sex-determination and sex-specific abortions.

20. Population Planning in China
What would have happened if the One Child Policy was not applied?
Population by 2000 would have reached 1.6 billion (instead of 1.3).
Annual increase would be 40 million (instead of 17-19).
Require much higher level of economic development.
The total population will continue to increase
Even if the natural growth rate can be lowered to 1% by 2005.
Annual increase of population will still be more than 10 million.
This trend would continue to increase in the next 50 years.
Even with effective family planning, China’s population will not stabilize until it reaches billion by 2050.

21. Population Planning in China
Improve the quality of the population
Education and health.
2.5 million students entered Universities in 2001.
Tremendous incurred costs.
Potential surplus labor in rural areas (countryside)
2 Causes?
development of the rural economy
higher rate of birth.
Large numbers of surplus (extra) rural labor who will need to transfer from the agricultural to a non-agricultural field.
Speed urbanization of the population and create bigger pressure on cities and towns.

22. Population Planning in China
Aging of the population
Persons 65 years and older represent about 7 percent of the population.
In the 21st century, China’s population will continue this aging trend.
65 years old or older numbering 250 million by the year 2040.
Providing social security and services to a huge elderly population.