1. 4
Money and Inflation
Chapter 4 is longer than average. If you omit anything from this chapter to save time, I recommend that you NOT omit the following, which I think are the most important concepts from this chapter:
the Quantity Theory of Money’s implication that inflation in the long run equals money growth minus real GDP growth
the money demand function L(i,Y), which will be used in the IS-LM model and other parts of the rest of this book
the Classical Dichotomy and Neutrality of Money (which includes the Fisher effect and the Layman’s view of the costs of inflation)
In addition to those three critical topics, Chapter 4 covers many other topics, such as:
the 3 functions and 2 types of money – these will likely be review if your students have previously taken an introductory economics course; hence, to save time, you can ask your students to read these on their own
the social costs of inflation (here, I think the Shoeleather cost is a good candidate for cutting – it just does not seem very relevant in a world with ATMs in most grocery stores and online bank account management)
ex ante vs. ex post real interest rate
seigniorage
the causes and costs of hyperinflation

2. In this chapter, you will learn…
The classical theory of inflation
causes
effects
social costs
“Classical” – assumes prices are flexible & markets clear
Applies to the long run
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

3. U.S. inflation and its trend, 1960-20060% 3% 6% 9%
12%
15%
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
% change in CPI from 12 months earlier
long-run trend
In this chapter, we learn about the long-run trend behavior of prices and inflation. The factors that make inflation deviate from its trend in the short run will be studied in chapter 13 (on Aggregate Supply and the Phillips Curve).
source: BLS
obtained from
slide 2

4. The connection between money and prices
Inflation rate = the percentage increase in the average level of prices.
Price = amount of money required to buy a good.
Because prices are defined in terms of money, we need to consider the nature of money, the supply of money, and how it is controlled.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

5. Money: Definition
Money is the stock of assets that can be readily used to make transactions.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

6. Money: Functions medium of exchange we use it to buy stuff
store of value transfers purchasing power from the present to the future
unit of account the common unit by which everyone measures prices and values
If your students have taken principles of economics, they will probably be familiar with the material on this slide.
It might be worthwhile, though, to take an extra moment to be sure that students understand that the definition of store of value (an item that transfers purchasing power from the present to the future) simply means that money retains its value over time, so you need not spend all your money as soon as you receive it. The idea should be familiar, even though Mankiw’s wording is a bit more sophisticated than most other texts.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

7. Money: Types has no intrinsic value example: the paper currency we use
1. fiat money
has no intrinsic value
example: the paper currency we use
2. commodity money
has intrinsic value
examples: gold coins, cigarettes in P.O.W. camps
Again, this material should be review for most students.
Note: Many students have seen the film The Shawshank Redemption starring Tim Robbins and Morgan Freeman. Most of this film takes place in a prison. The prisoners have an informal “underground economy” in which cigarettes are used as money, even by prisoners who don’t smoke. Students who have seen the film will better understand “commodity money” if you mention this example. Also, the textbook (p.79) has a case study on cigarettes being used as money in POW camps during WWII.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

8. Discussion Question Which of these are money? a. Currency b. Checks
c. Deposits in checking accounts (“demand deposits”)
d. Credit cards
e. Certificates of deposit (“time deposits”)
You might want to ask students to determine, for each item listed, which of the functions of money it serves.
Answers:
a - yes
b - no, not the checks themselves, but the funds in checking accounts are money.
c - yes (see b)
d - no, credit cards are a means of deferring payment.
e - CDs are a store of value, and they are measured in money units. They are not readily spendable, though.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

9. The money supply and monetary policy definitions
The money supply is the quantity of money available in the economy.
Monetary policy is the control over the money supply.
Again, this is mostly review.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

10. The Federal Reserve Building Washington, DC
The central bank
Monetary policy is conducted by a country’s central bank.
In the U.S., the central bank is called the Federal Reserve (“the Fed”).
The Federal Reserve Building Washington, DC
Again, this is mostly review.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

11. Money supply measures, April 2006
symbol
assets included
amount ($ billions)
$739
Currency C
$1391
C + demand deposits, travelers’ checks, other checkable deposits M1
This table is an updated version of Table 4-1 on p.82 of the textbook, with one change: This slide excludes M3, which the Federal Reserve discontinued in March For more info, see
The most important thing that students should get from this slide is the following:
Each successive measure of the money supply is BIGGER and LESS LIQUID than the one it follows. I.e.,
checking account deposits (in M1 but not C) are less liquid than currency.
Money market deposit account and savings account balances (in M2 but not M1) are less liquid than demand deposits.
Whether you require your students to learn the definitions of every component of each monetary aggregate is up to you. Most professors agree that students should learn the definitions of M1, M2, demand deposits, and time deposits. Some professors feel that, since the quantity of information students can learn in a semester is finite, it is not worthwhile to require students to learn such terms as “repurchase agreements.” However, you might verbally state the definitions of such terms to help students better understand the nature of the monetary aggregates.
$6799
M1 + small time deposits, savings deposits, money market mutual funds, money market deposit accounts M2
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

12. The Quantity Theory of Money
A simple theory linking the inflation rate to the growth rate of the money supply.
Begins with the concept of velocity…
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

13. Velocity basic concept: the rate at which money circulates
definition: the number of times the average dollar bill changes hands in a given time period
example: In 2007,
$500 billion in transactions
money supply = $100 billion
The average dollar is used in five transactions in 2007
So, velocity = 5
In order for $500 billion in transactions to occur when the money supply is only $100b, each dollar must be used, on average, in five transactions.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

14. Velocity, cont. where V = velocity T = value of all transactions
This suggests the following definition:
where
V = velocity
T = value of all transactions
M = money supply
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

15. Velocity, cont. Use nominal GDP as a proxy for total transactions.
Then,
where
P = price of output (GDP deflator)
Y = quantity of output (real GDP)
P Y = value of output (nominal GDP)
You might ask students if they know the difference between nominal GDP and the value of transactions.
Answer: nominal GDP includes the value of purchases of final goods; total transactions also includes the value of intermediate goods.
Even though they are different, they are highly correlated. Also, our models focus on GDP, and there’s lots of great data on GDP. So from this point on, we’ll use the income version of velocity.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

16. The quantity equation
The quantity equation M V = P Y follows from the preceding definition of velocity.
It is an identity: it holds by definition of the variables.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

17. Money demand and the quantity equation
M/P = real money balances, the purchasing power of the money supply.
A simple money demand function: (M/P )d = k Y where k = how much money people wish to hold for each dollar of income (k is exogenous)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

18. Money demand and the quantity equation
money demand: (M/P )d = k Y
quantity equation: M V = P Y
The connection between them: k = 1/V
When people hold lots of money relative to their incomes (k is high), money changes hands infrequently (V is low).
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

19. Back to the quantity theory of money
starts with quantity equation
assumes V is constant & exogenous:
With this assumption, the quantity equation can be written as
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

20. The quantity theory of money, cont.
How the price level is determined:
With V constant, the money supply determines nominal GDP (P Y ).
Real GDP is determined by the economy’s supplies of K and L and the production function (Chap 3).
The price level is P = (nominal GDP)/(real GDP).
It’s worthwhile to underscore the order (logical order, though not necessarily chronological order) in which variables are determined in this model (as well as the other models students will learn in this course).
First, real GDP is already determined outside this model (real GDP is determined by the model from chapter 3, which was completely independent of the money supply or velocity or other nominal variables).
Second, the Quantity Theory of money determines nominal GDP.
Third, the values of nominal GDP (PY) and real GDP (Y) together determine P
(as a ratio of PY to Y).
If, on an exam or homework problem, students forget the logical order in which endogenous variables are determined --- or on a more fundamental level, forget which variables are endogenous and which are exogenous --- then they are much less likely to earn the high grades that most of them desire.
[Note the similarity between the way P is determined and the definition of the GDP deflator from chapter 2.]
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

21. The quantity theory of money, cont.
Recall from Chapter 2: The growth rate of a product equals the sum of the growth rates.
The quantity equation in growth rates:
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

22. The quantity theory of money, cont.
 (Greek letter “pi”) denotes the inflation rate:
The result from the preceding slide was:
Solve this result for  to get
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

23. The quantity theory of money, cont.
Normal economic growth requires a certain amount of money supply growth to facilitate the growth in transactions.
Money growth in excess of this amount leads to inflation.
The text on this slide is an intuitive way to understand the equation.
For students that are more comfortable with concrete numerical examples, you could offer the following:
Suppose real GDP is growing by 3% per year over the long run. Thus, production, income, and spending are all growing by 3%. This means that the volume of transactions will be growing as well.
The central bank can achieve zero inflation (on average over the long run) simply by setting the growth rate of the money supply at 3%, in which case exactly enough new money is being supplied to facilitate the growth in transactions.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

24. The quantity theory of money, cont.
Y/Y depends on growth in the factors of production and on technological progress (all of which we take as given, for now).
Hence, the Quantity Theory predicts a one-for-one relation between changes in the money growth rate and changes in the inflation rate.
Note: the theory doesn’t predict that the inflation rate will equal the money growth rate. It *does* predict that a change in the money growth rate will cause an equal change in the inflation rate.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

25. Confronting the quantity theory with data
The quantity theory of money implies
1. countries with higher money growth rates should have higher inflation rates.
2. the long-run trend behavior of a country’s inflation should be similar to the long-run trend in the country’s money growth rate.
Are the data consistent with these implications?
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

26. International data on inflation and money growth
Turkey
Ecuador
Indonesia
Belarus
Argentina
U.S.
Switzerland
Singapore
Figure 4-2, p.89
Each variable is measured as an annual average over the period
The strong positive correlation is evidence for the Quantity Theory of Money.
Source: International Financial Statistics.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

27. U.S. inflation and money growth, 1960-20060% 3% 6% 9%
12%
15%
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Over the long run, the inflation and money growth rates move together, as the quantity theory predicts.
M2 growth rate
The quantity theory of money is intended to explain the long-run relation of inflation and money growth, not the short-run relation. In the long run, inflation and money growth are positively related, as the theory predicts.
(In the short run, however, inflation and money growth appear highly negatively correlated! One possible reason is that the causality is reversed in the short run: when inflation rises – or is expected to rise – the Fed cuts back on money growth. If the economy slumps and inflation falls, the Fed increases money growth. It might be appropriate to discuss this when covering the chapters on short-run fluctuations.)
sources:
CPI - BLS
Money supply - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
obtained from
inflation rate
slide 26

28. Seigniorage
To spend more without raising taxes or selling bonds, the govt can print money.
The “revenue” raised from printing money is called seigniorage (pronounced SEEN-your-idge).
The inflation tax: Printing money to raise revenue causes inflation. Inflation is like a tax on people who hold money.
Introduction of abbreviation “govt” for “government”
It’s quicker and easier for students to write “govt” in their notes.
In the U.S., seigniorage accounts for only about 3% of total government revenue. In Italy and Greece, seigniorage has often been more than 10% of total revenue. In countries experiencing hyperinflation, seigniorage is often the government’s main source of revenue, and the need to print money to finance government expenditure is a primary cause of hyperinflation.
See Case Study on p.90 “Paying for the American Revolution.”
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

29. Inflation and interest rates
Nominal interest rate, i not adjusted for inflation
Real interest rate, r adjusted for inflation: r = i  
This is probably review, if your students have taken an introductory course in economics.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

30. The Fisher effect The Fisher equation: i = r + 
Chap 3: S = I determines r .
Hence, an increase in  causes an equal increase in i.
This one-for-one relationship is called the Fisher effect.
Note that S and I are real variables. In chapter 3, we learned about the factors that determine S and I. These factors did not include the money supply, velocity, inflation, or other nominal variables.
Hence, in the classical (long-run) theory we are learning, changes in money growth or inflation do not affect the real interest rate. This is why there’s a one-for-one relationship between changes in the inflation rate and changes in the nominal interest rate.
(Again, the Fisher effect does not imply that the nominal interest rate EQUALS the inflation rate. It implies that CHANGES in the nominal interest rate equal CHANGES in the inflation rate, given a constant value of the real interest rate.)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

31. Inflation and nominal interest rates in the U.S., 1955-2006
percent per year 15
nominal interest rate 10 5
A replica of Fig 4-3, p.92
The data are consistent with the Fisher effect: inflation and the nominal interest rate are very highly correlated. However, they are not perfectly correlated, which absolutely does not invalidate the Fisher effect. Over time, the saving and investment curves move around, causing the real interest rate to move, which, in turn, causes the nominal interest rate to change for a given value of inflation.
About the data:
The inflation rate is the percentage change in the (not seasonally adjusted) CPI from 12 months earlier.
The nominal interest rate is the (not seasonally adjusted) 3-month Treasury bill rate in the secondary market.
Data obtained from
inflation rate -5
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

32. Inflation and nominal interest rates across countries
Romania
Zimbabwe
Brazil
Bulgaria
Israel
Germany
U.S.
Fig 4-4, p.93
The nominal interest rate is the rate on short-term government debt. Inflation and interest rates are measured as annual averages over the period
The strong positive relation is evidence for the Fisher effect.
Switzerland
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

33. Exercise:
Suppose V is constant, M is growing 5% per year, Y is growing 2% per year, and r = 4.
a. Solve for i.
b. If the Fed increases the money growth rate by 2 percentage points per year, find i.
c. Suppose the growth rate of Y falls to 1% per year.
What will happen to  ?
What must the Fed do if it wishes to keep  constant?
This exercise gives students an immediate application of the Quantity Theory of Money and the Fisher effect. The math is not difficult.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

34. Answers---the details:
V is constant, M grows 5% per year, Y grows 2% per year, r = 4.
a. First, find  = 5  2 = 3.
Then, find i = r +  = = 7.
b. i = 2, same as the increase in the money growth rate.
c. If the Fed does nothing,  = 1.
To prevent inflation from rising, Fed must reduce the money growth rate by 1 percentage point per year.
Answers---the details:
a. First, we need to find . Constant velocity implies  = (M/M) - (Y/Y) = = 3. Then, i = r +  = = 7.
b. Changes in the money growth rate do not affect real GDP or its growth rate. So, a two-point increase in money growth causes a two-point increase in inflation. According to the Fisher effect, the nominal interest rate should rise by the increase in inflation: two points (from i=7 to i=9).
c.  = (M/M) - (Y/Y). If (Y/Y) falls by 1 point, then  will increase by 1 point; the Fed can prevent this by reducing (M/M) by 1 point. Intuition: With slower growth in the economy, the volume of transactions will be growing more slowly, which means that the need for new money will grow more slowly.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

35. Two real interest rates
 = actual inflation rate (not known until after it has occurred)
 e = expected inflation rate
i –  e = ex ante real interest rate: the real interest rate people expect at the time they buy a bond or take out a loan
i –  = ex post real interest rate: the real interest rate actually realized
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

36. Money demand and the nominal interest rate
In the quantity theory of money, the demand for real money balances depends only on real income Y.
Another determinant of money demand: the nominal interest rate, i.
the opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds or other interest-earning assets).
Hence, i   in money demand.
The concept of “money demand” can be a bit awkward for students the first time they learn it. A good way to explain it is to imagine that a consumer has a certain amount of wealth, which is divided between money and other assets. The other assets typically generate some type of income (e.g. interest income in the case of bonds), but are much less liquid than money. There is therefore a trade-off: the more money the consumer holds in his portfolio, the more interest income he foregoes; the less money he holds, the more interest income he makes, but the less liquid is his portfolio.
With this for background, a consumer’s “money demand” refers to the fraction of his wealth he would like to hold in the form of money (as opposed to less-liquid income-generating assets like bonds).
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

37. The money demand function
(M/P )d = real money demand, depends
negatively on i
i is the opp. cost of holding money
positively on Y
higher Y  more spending
 so, need more money
(“L” is used for the money demand function because money is the most liquid asset.)
An increase in the nominal interest rate represents the increase in the opportunity cost of holding money rather than bonds, and would motivate the typical consumer to hold less of his wealth in the form of money, and more in the form of bonds (or other interest-earning assets).
An increase in real income (other things equal) causes an increase in the consumer’s consumption and therefore spending. To facilitate this extra spending, the consumer will require more money. Thus, the consumer would like a larger fraction of his wealth to be in the form of money (rather than bonds, etc). This might involve redeeming some of his bonds. Or it might simply involve holding the additional income in the form of money rather than putting it into bonds.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

38. The money demand function
When people are deciding whether to hold money or bonds, they don’t know what inflation will turn out to be.
Hence, the nominal interest rate relevant for money demand is r +  e.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

39. The supply of real money balances
Equilibrium
The supply of real money balances
Real money demand
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

40. What determines what variable how determined (in the long run)
M exogenous (the Fed)
r adjusts to make S = I Y
P adjusts to make
Again, it is very important for students to learn the logical order in which variables are determined. I.e., you do NOT need to know P in order to determine Y. You DO need to know Y in order to determine L, and you need to know L and M in order to determine P.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

41. How P responds to M For given values of r, Y, and  e,
a change in M causes P to change by the same percentage – just like in the quantity theory of money.
This slide shows the connection between the money market equilibrium condition and the (simpler) Quantity Theory of Money, presented earlier in this chapter.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

42. What about expected inflation?
Over the long run, people don’t consistently over- or under-forecast inflation,
so  e =  on average.
In the short run,  e may change when people get new information.
EX: Fed announces it will increase M next year. People will expect next year’s P to be higher, so  e rises.
This affects P now, even though M hasn’t changed yet….
This slide and the next correspond to the subsection of Chapter 4 entitled “Future Money and Current Prices,” appearing on pp
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

43. How P responds to  e For given values of r, Y, and M ,
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

44. Discussion question Why is inflation bad?
What costs does inflation impose on society? List all the ones you can think of.
Focus on the long run.
Think like an economist.
Many of the social costs of inflation are not hard to figure out, if students “think like an economist.”
Suggestion: After you pose the question, don’t immediately ask for students to volunteer their answers. Instead, tell them to think about the question for a moment, jot down their answers, and THEN ask for volunteers. You will get more participation (quantity & quality) this way, especially from students who don’t consider themselves fast thinkers.
After presenting the following slides (which describe the costs), see how many of the costs presented here were anticipated by the students’ responses to the question on this slide.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

45. A common misperception
Common misperception: inflation reduces real wages
This is true only in the short run, when nominal wages are fixed by contracts.
(Chap. 3) In the long run, the real wage is determined by labor supply and the marginal product of labor, not the price level or inflation rate.
Consider the data…
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

46. Average hourly earnings and the CPI, 1964-2006
$20
250
$18
$16
200
$14
$12
150
hourly wage
$10
CPI ( = 100) $8
100
First, note that the CPI has risen tremendously over the past 40 years.
However, nominal wages have risen by a roughly similar magnitude.
If the common misperception were true, then the real wage should show exactly the opposite behavior as the CPI. It doesn’t. The real wage is not constant - it varies within the range of $15 to $19 - but there is no downward trend in the real wage over the long term.
Note: We wouldn’t expect the real wage to be constant over the long run – we would expect it to change in response to shifts in the labor supply and MPL curves.
source: BLS
Obtained from: $6
CPI (right scale) $4 50
wage in current dollars $2
wage in 2006 dollars $0
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
1964
1970
1976
1982
1988
1994
2000
2006

47. The classical view of inflation
The classical view: A change in the price level is merely a change in the units of measurement.
So why, then, is inflation a social problem?
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

48. The social costs of inflation
…fall into two categories:
1. costs when inflation is expected
2. costs when inflation is different than people had expected
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

49. The costs of expected inflation: 1. Shoeleather cost
def: the costs and inconveniences of reducing money balances to avoid the inflation tax.
  i
  real money balances
Remember: In long run, inflation does not affect real income or real spending.
So, same monthly spending but lower average money holdings means more frequent trips to the bank to withdraw smaller amounts of cash.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

50. The costs of expected inflation: 2. Menu costs
def: The costs of changing prices.
Examples:
cost of printing new menus
cost of printing & mailing new catalogs
The higher is inflation, the more frequently firms must change their prices and incur these costs.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

51. The costs of expected inflation: 3. Relative price distortions
Firms facing menu costs change prices infrequently.
Example: A firm issues new catalog each January. As the general price level rises throughout the year, the firm’s relative price will fall.
Different firms change their prices at different times, leading to relative price distortions…
…causing microeconomic inefficiencies in the allocation of resources.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

52. The costs of expected inflation: 4. Unfair tax treatment
Some taxes are not adjusted to account for inflation, such as the capital gains tax.
Example:
Jan 1: you buy $10,000 worth of IBM stock
Dec 31: you sell the stock for $11,000, so your nominal capital gain is $1000 (10%).
Suppose  = 10% during the year. Your real capital gain is $0.
But the govt requires you to pay taxes on your $1000 nominal gain!!
In the 1970s, the income tax was not adjusted for inflation. There were a lot of people who received nominal salary increases large enough to push them into a higher tax bracket, but not large enough to prevent their real salaries from falling in the face of high inflation. This led to political pressure to index the income tax brackets.
If inflation had been higher during , when lots of people were earning high capital gains, then there might have been more political pressure to index the capital gains tax.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

53. The costs of expected inflation: 5. General inconvenience
Inflation makes it harder to compare nominal values from different time periods.
This complicates long-range financial planning.
Examples:
Parents trying to decide how much to save for the future college expenses of their (now) young child.
Thirty-somethings trying to decide how much to save for retirement.
The CEO of a big corporation trying to decide whether to build a new factory, which will yield a revenue stream for 20 years or more.
Your grandmother claiming that things were so much cheaper when she was your age.
A silly digression: My grandmother often has these conversations with me, concluding that the dollar just isn’t worth what it was when she was young. I ask her “well, how much is a dollar worth today?”. She considers the question, and then offers her estimate: “About 60 cents.” I then offer her 60 cents for every dollar she has. She doesn’t accept the offer. :)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

54. Many long-term contracts not indexed, but based on  e.
Additional cost of unexpected inflation: Arbitrary redistribution of purchasing power
Many long-term contracts not indexed, but based on  e.
If  turns out different from  e, then some gain at others’ expense.
Example: borrowers & lenders
If  >  e, then (i  ) < (i   e) and purchasing power is transferred from lenders to borrowers.
If  <  e, then purchasing power is transferred from borrowers to lenders.
Ask students this rhetorical question: Would it upset you off if somebody arbitrarily took wealth away from some people and gave it to others?
Well, this in effect is what’s happening when inflation turns out different than expected.
Furthermore, it’s impossible to predict when inflation will turn out higher than expected, when it will be lower, and how big the difference will be. So, these redistributions of purchasing power are arbitrary and random.
The text gives a simple numerical example starting on the bottom of p.100.
(In the short run, when many nominal wages are fixed by contracts, there are transfers of purchasing power between firms and their employees whenever inflation is different than expected when the contract was written and signed.)
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

55. Additional cost of high inflation: Increased uncertainty
When inflation is high, it’s more variable and unpredictable:  turns out different from  e more often, and the differences tend to be larger (though not systematically positive or negative)
Arbitrary redistributions of wealth become more likely.
This creates higher uncertainty, making risk averse people worse off.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

56. One benefit of inflation
Nominal wages are rarely reduced, even when the equilibrium real wage falls. This hinders labor market clearing.
Inflation allows the real wages to reach equilibrium levels without nominal wage cuts.
Therefore, moderate inflation improves the functioning of labor markets.
Students will better appreciate this point when they learn chapter 6 (the natural rate of unemployment). In this chapter, we will see how the failure of wages to adjust contributes to a long-term unemployment problem.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

57. Hyperinflation def:   50% per month
All the costs of moderate inflation described above become HUGE under hyperinflation.
Money ceases to function as a store of value, and may not serve its other functions (unit of account, medium of exchange).
People may conduct transactions with barter or a stable foreign currency.
Page 104 has an excellent example of life during a hyperinflation, which involves beer, a commodity with which your students may be somewhat familiar. See also the excellent case study on pp
Note: On p.103, the text states “Hyperinflation is often defined as inflation that exceeds 50 percent per month.” I’ve included this definition at the top of this slide, to be consistent with the textbook. However, some professors are a bit uncomfortable assigning a specific number (such as 50% per month) to the definition of hyperinflation, because, for example, most would agree that 49% per month inflation is high enough to be considered hyperinflation. The definition I like to use in my own teaching is this:
hyperinflation: a really, really, really high rate of inflation
Feel free to edit the definition of “hyperinflation” on this slide if you wish.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

58. What causes hyperinflation?
Hyperinflation is caused by excessive money supply growth:
When the central bank prints money, the price level rises.
If it prints money rapidly enough, the result is hyperinflation.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

59. A few examples of hyperinflation
money growth (%)
inflation (%)
Israel,
295
275
Poland,
344
400
Brazil,
1350
1323
Argentina,
1264
1912
Peru,
2974
3849
Nicaragua,
4991
5261
Bolivia,
4208
6515
Examples of hyperinflation from the textbook:
1. interwar Germany (data and discussion)
2. Bolivia in 1985 (Case Study)
This table provides data on Bolivia’s hyperinflation, and some additional examples.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

60. Why governments create hyperinflation
When a government cannot raise taxes or sell bonds,
it must finance spending increases by printing money.
In theory, the solution to hyperinflation is simple: stop printing money.
In the real world, this requires drastic and painful fiscal restraint.
Before revealing the contents of this slide, you might consider asking students the following question:
“Solving the problem of hyperinflation is easy. Why, then, do governments allow hyperinflation to occur?”
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

61. The Classical Dichotomy
Real variables: Measured in physical units – quantities and relative prices, for example:
quantity of output produced
real wage: output earned per hour of work
real interest rate: output earned in the future by lending one unit of output today
Nominal variables: Measured in money units, e.g.,
nominal wage: Dollars per hour of work.
nominal interest rate: Dollars earned in future by lending one dollar today.
the price level: The amount of dollars needed to buy a representative basket of goods.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

62. The Classical Dichotomy
Note: Real variables were explained in Chap 3, nominal ones in Chapter 4.
Classical dichotomy: the theoretical separation of real and nominal variables in the classical model, which implies nominal variables do not affect real variables.
Neutrality of money: Changes in the money supply do not affect real variables.
In the real world, money is approximately neutral in the long run.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation

63. Chapter Summary Money the stock of assets used for transactions
serves as a medium of exchange, store of value, and unit of account.
Commodity money has intrinsic value, fiat money does not.
Central bank controls the money supply.
Quantity theory of money assumes velocity is stable, concludes that the money growth rate determines the inflation rate.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
slide 62

64. Chapter Summary Nominal interest rate
equals real interest rate + inflation rate
the opp. cost of holding money
Fisher effect: Nominal interest rate moves one-for-one w/ expected inflation.
Money demand
depends only on income in the Quantity Theory
also depends on the nominal interest rate
if so, then changes in expected inflation affect the current price level.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
slide 63

65. Chapter Summary Costs of inflation
Expected inflation shoeleather costs, menu costs, tax & relative price distortions, inconvenience of correcting figures for inflation
Unexpected inflation all of the above plus arbitrary redistributions of wealth between debtors and creditors
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
slide 64

66. Chapter Summary Hyperinflation
caused by rapid money supply growth when money printed to finance govt budget deficits
stopping it requires fiscal reforms to eliminate govt’s need for printing money
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
slide 65

67. Chapter Summary Classical dichotomy
In classical theory, money is neutral--does not affect real variables.
So, we can study how real variables are determined w/o reference to nominal ones.
Then, money market eq’m determines price level and all nominal variables.
Most economists believe the economy works this way in the long run.
CHAPTER 4 Money and Inflation
slide 66