1. Helén Andersson, Markus Meier, Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich
Regionally downscaled climate projections for the Baltic and North Seas (CLIMSEA)

3. Temperature change in the Baltic Sea
RCP8.5
2oC
RCP4.5

4. Ice extent
Modell
Observations
EC-EARTH RCP4.5
EC-EARTH RCP8.5

5. Sea level change

6. Changes in precipitation – increased runoff, decreased salinity

8. Climate-change impacts over nothern Sweden (A1B-scenario)

11. (North Sea + Baltic Sea)
RCA4-NEMO – coupled atmosphere ocean model
Atmosphere
Rossby Center Atmosphere model 4
24 km
Ocean
NEMO3.3.1 ocean component
(North Sea + Baltic Sea)
2 NM, 56 vertical levels
Boundary conditions from GCMs

12. Coupled ocean- biogeochemsitry
Swedish Coastal and Ocean
biogeochemical model
Boundary conditions: Nutrient loads !!!!!!!!!

13. 3D Uncertainty Cube =48 scenarios
Baltic Sea
Action Plan
Eutrophication scenario
Business
as usual
Reference
MPI-ESM
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
EC-EARTH
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
Modelunceratiny
HadGEM
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
IPSL
RCP2.6
RCP4.5
RCP6.0
RCP8.5
Climate Scenario uncertainty

14. Combined effects of climate change and nutrient loads
Ensemble modeling to quantify uncertainty
Decision support to policy makers

16. Work package 1: extension of database of regional projections
9 GCMs, 3 RCPs, 3 nutrient load scenarios
Work package 2: analysis of parameters of importance for climate-impact studies in regional seas
seasonal ocean parameters and climate indices of importance ecosystem functioning in different areas of the Baltic Sea
Work package 3: development of methodology for ensemble selection
select subsets of ensembles of climate simulations tailored to the needs within climate change impact studies - find an optimum number of simulations with uncorrelated information
Work package 4: analysis of indicators of trends, variability and uncertainty in the extended ensemble projection
Climate-change impacts on the marine ecosystem will be quantified and visualized
The ensemble and different scenarios will be used to define appropriate ways to quantify and
communicate uncertainty and bias associated with the model outputs.

17. D1. Month 6: Report: Identification of variables and indices for marine applications
D2. Month 15: Report: Description of the entire ensemble and results of climate change signals
D3. Month 24: Report: Results of the cluster analysis and illustration of differences in climate change signals calculated from the entire ensemble and from the optimum subset
D4. Month 24: Final Report: Summary and recommendations for operational marine climate
projections for the Baltic Sea

18. enhances CMEMS roadmap concerning the assessment of past and future climate-change impacts on the ocean environment
addresses CMEMS evolution strategy under R&D priorities for 4.8 ocean climate products, indicators and scenarios and the short to mid-term objectives to develop methods to infer the future state of the regional seas based on climate-model projections, including tests for quality and reliability.
development and analyses of climate indicators of the physical and biogeochemical state of the Baltic Sea, where future trends and variability will bring essential information for the needs of spatial- and temporal resolution of monitoring activities as well as on changes in ocean health and ecosystem services.
SMHI provides national climate services and national and CMEMS forecasting and data products (Baltic Marine Forecasting Centre BAL-MFC and In Situ Thematic Assembly Centre, INSTAC)

19. Team Dr. Matthias Gröger Dr. Helén Andersson Prof. Markus Meier
Ocean and climate scientist
Dr. Helén Andersson
Project leader, coordination of dissemination
Prof. Markus Meier
Ocean and climate scientist, scientific leadership
Mr. Christian Dieterich
Ocean and climate expert and scientific modeller

20. SMHI Research & Development - Oceanography
Expertise in oceanography, mathematics, physics, marine biology, marine chemistry. Development, use and interpretation of 3D coupled ocean-biogeocemistry models and coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models (forecast and climatic timescales).