1. Population and housing censuses1
Population and housing censuses
DSS Meeting September 2014
Agenda point 7.8

2. Summary - three main themes
2011
Quality review
Completing the dissemination
2021
Developing the next census data collection
Beyond 2021
Modernisation of European population and housing statistics
Note: the results of the Census WG included in this presentation

3. Quality review of the 2011 census data
Preparation and dissemination of census data as a major cooperative effort of the ESS
Regulation (EC) 763/2008 foresees a shared responsibility for quality
Article 5(2) - Member States should transmit data that are already fully validated
Article 6(3) - Eurostat should assess the quality of the data

4. Review based on principles of the
2011
Review based on principles of the
"Quality Assurance Framework of the European Statistical System, Version 1.1"
Check of census data
Plausibility of the reported population count
Coherence among the counts of the different statistical units covered by the census
Analysis of the joint distribution of selected pairs of census variables
Check of census metadata
Completeness of the information provided
Compliance with the requirements of the EU census legislation

5. Results of the quality checks
2011
Results of the quality checks
Significant problems found in the data and/or metadata for a large majority of Member States
Census Hub data remain publicly accessible but are marked as provisional and not widely publicised

6. Results of the quality checks
2011
Results of the quality checks
A detailed report on the results of the quality checks was sent to the NSI census teams
The Census Working Group agreed that
the individual national quality reports would be shared among NSIs to help identify common problems
as an input to further work (including the programme), Eurostat would produce a summary report on the overall results of the quality check

7. Future steps as agreed with the Census Working Group
2011
Future steps as agreed with the Census Working Group
Important now to publicise existence of the Census Hub
Evidence already that the data are being used and are highly appreciated
Many of the data and metadata quality problems have already been resolved. Others are expected to be settled soon.
Decisions relating to remaining quality issues to be taken in coming weeks
Census Hub to be linked to the new dedicated section of Eurostat's web site
'Provisional data' warning to be removed

8. 2011
Census Hub
The first full implementation of SDMX in the European Statistical System
Eurostat has been developing, testing and improving both the central application and the connection to the databases in NSIs application
All known, remaining, significant IT problems have been solved
The system now performs well in tests that simulate "real life" use
The hard work of NSIs to create comparable data for EU Census is recognized and appreciated.
Some design their censuses, so it would be relatively unproblematic to repeat such exercise in the future

9. Assessing the relevance of the Census Hub
2011
Assessing the relevance of the Census Hub
The Census Hub keeps a detailed log of all user queries
This log allows Eurostat to derive indications on the relevance of each census variable
Even with no publicity and no link to Eurostat web site - over 6,000 queries between 1 Aug – 15 Sept by users outside the European Commission
Two analytical papers known to us
Indications about relevance will be an input for the revision of EU census legislation for 2021

10. Other planned dissemination routes
2011
Other planned dissemination routes
Tables on Eurostat's online dissemination database
Interactive thematic maps
Statistical dashboards
Dedicated section on population and housing censuses on the Eurostat website
News releases
Articles on Eurostat's Wiki ("Statistics Explained")
Dedicated publication on population and census foreseen for 2015

11. Online dissemination tables
2011
Online dissemination tables
A set of 19 tables on the 2011 census
Simpler - far fewer dimensions than the Census Hub
No additional burden on NSIs
Data will be extracted by Eurostat from the Census Hub
Additional validation by Eurostat using the EDIT software

12. Preparation of the 2021 programme of European census statistics
2013 agreement with the DSS that the 2021 EU census programme would be based on the existing Regulation (EC) No 763/2008 used for 2011
However, new implementing Commission regulations are needed for 2021, defining
definitions
breakdowns
cross-tabulations
metadata and quality reporting

13. Context for the development of the 2021 census 1/2
Major changes at national level in the approaches, methods and data sources used for census-type statistics
Ongoing work on the modernisation of European social stat.
Need to balance important and evolving needs for EU census against practicalities and burdens of producing the statistics
Lessons learned from 2011 round
Fiscal restraint

14. Context for the development of the 2021 census 2/2
Work by the Task Force on Integration of Statistics and Geospatial Data to produce 1km² grid population data
Accommodation / use of INSPIRE directive
Review of experience gained from 2011 census programme
Any parts of the data and metadata collection that proved problematic
The use made of the data (identifying most user relevant parts of the outputs)
UN Statistical Division and Conference of European Statisticians recommendations for the 2020 census round

15. The 2021 EU Census Task Force
The Census Working Group agreed with Eurostat's proposal to create a Task Force to assist in defining the 2021 EU census data collection
15 MSs have volunteered to join
Including NSIs that use traditional & alternative (registers and sample data) methods; UNECE –observer
First meeting expected Dec2013/Jan2014
Main challenges identified so far:
requirements to be agreed asap – target 2016/7
focus on streamlining/simplification
introduction of geo-grid

16. Redesigning European census-type statistics
Beyond 2021
Redesigning European census-type statistics
As agreed with the DSS in 2013, a more fundamental redevelopment of European population and housing statistics is foreseen after the 2021 census round
Reflecting the major changes that are taking place in many Member States
Increased use of administrative data sources
Use of information taken from regular and ad hoc sample surveys
Multi-mode data collection - greater use of web-based response methods in those NSIs retaining a 100% enumeration
Move towards more frequent (annual) data
"Flattening" the financial requirements

17. Many factors to take into account
Beyond 2021
Many factors to take into account
Longer process
We need to think approx. 10 years ahead
Redefining the role of the future census as an integrated part of European social statistics activities
Need to take into account current situation and likely developments over the next 10 years:
methodological and data sources changes
continuing differences between countries
new needs for statistics
changing political, social, technological & financial environment

18. Task Force on the post-2020 Census Strategy
Beyond 2021
Task Force on the post-2020 Census Strategy
Census experts nominated by the DSS from: DK, DE, ES, FR, IT, LT, SE & UK
Key Commission users of the statistics
Meetings in February and June 2014
Next meeting in November
Brain storming / gathering information phase

19. Looking to the future – 1/2
Beyond 2021
Looking to the future – 1/2
Looking 10 years ahead presents opportunities & challenges
What will be feasible in the future?
New methods and data sources, changing economic, legal and policy environment
What will be needed in the future?
User needs and priorities will change.
How to ensure that the statistics remain relevant?
Need for an open and flexible approach

20. Looking to the future – 2/2
Beyond 2021
Looking to the future – 2/2
Defining a meaningful data collection that will be feasible in the future, even if
Substantial lead time is needed to prepare a census
Lack of control
Degree of abstraction
Uncertainty - some things are not yet immediately possible
Dependency on administrative sources
Some additional development will be needed
Complexity
Acceptability
Maintain close contacts with users – trying to define likely core data requirements for the future

21. ESS wide questionnaire on plans for census-type statistics beyond 2021
A way of better understanding likely future data availability:
Data sources
Availability of current census topics
Ability to follow current harmonized definitions
Level of disaggregation
Cross-tabulations
Frequency of data collection
1 km² grid data

22. Questionnaire results - highlights
Beyond 2021
Questionnaire results - highlights
27 replies
Several 'refusals' – "too early to give a meaningful reply"
19 countries will use administrative sources
13 of these combined with other data sources
At least some data available annually from 16 countries
Particularly for person topics
Some 1km² grid data possible in majority of countries
Confidentiality problems cited

23. Beyond 2021
Discussion: balancing needs for statistics against burden/resource requirements
Overlap with existing data collections
Some existing data requirements may be replaced by a future census data collection – particularly if this were annual
Evidence that a more permanent or continuous data collection can result in greater efficiency and reduced costs
At EU level, widely differing national systems
Need for short-term grants to support development?

24. Beyond 2021
Discussion: meeting national needs & risks related to changes – scenarios.
TF agreed on two model scenarios that were presented to the Working Group as a framework for discussion only
Based on experience of some countries and group discussion
Different aspects of the scenarios based on the results of the questionnaire
E.g., a majority of countries expected that at least some annual data would be available in the future

25. Consulting the ESS via the Census WG
Beyond 2021
Consulting the ESS via the Census WG
Focused questions to Census WG - reply by 3 October:
With respect to the model scenarios for discussion
Looking ahead to the likely situation in 2024
Likely future availability of administrative data sources, barriers to using these sources, relevant changes to the legal framework for accessing these data
Availability of annual data
Future user needs
Need for grants to support development
Issues (e.g. confidentiality) related to the production of 1km² grid data

26. Conclusions - work 2011 Good progress in completing 2011 census round
Publicising asap
The Hub - a powerful and flexible approach to dissemination
2021
Need to develop soon the details of the data collection considering the burden and 1km2 grid
Beyond 2021
Fundamental review
Reflecting changes that are taking place in many or most MSs
Looking into the future

27. Conclusions - general
Countries are changing how they produce census-type statistics
The needs for harmonised European census-type statistics will continue and evolve for 2021 and beyond
As part of the modernisation of European social statistics, census statistics will be progressively integrated into the wider systems for demographic and social statistics
The 2021 EU census programme can be seen as an intermediate step towards a more fundamental restructuring of European census statistics

28. Thank you for your attention

29. Thank you for your attention

30. Thank you for your attention

31. Beyond 2021
Scenario A
Annual collection of population data, starting in around 2024, limited to a small number of key topics with little or no cross-tabulation.
Topics 'place of usual residence', 'age' and 'sex' would be geo-referenced to a 1km² grid.
A full census-type data collection for 2031.
The topics, disaggregations, cross-tabulations would be relatively detailed.
Data would be produced at both national and regional levels, and could also include some additional topics for which information would be collected at 1km² grid level.

32. Beyond 2021
Scenario B
Beginning in or after 2024, an annual collection of data based on a 1km² grid. Initial focus on a limited number of key variables
Gradual increase in the number of variables collected annually (although many not to a 1km² grid)
By 2031, there would be an annual data collection largely equivalent to the existing full data collection