1. GIS BASED IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN CAPE
A/Prof Marianne Vanderschuren
Centre for Transport Studies
University of Cape Town
SATC, 10 July 2018

2. Content Road Fatality Rates in Africa
Road Fatality Rates in South Africa
Provincial comparison
Population
GDP
Vehicle ownership
Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures
Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Road Fatality Rates in Africa
Road Death Rate 2010:
SA: 32.5 fatalities/ pop
Africa: 24 fatalities/ pop
Global: 17 fatalities/ pop
Source: Peden et al., Source: WHO, 2013

4. Road Fatality Rates in Africa
Road death rate in cities:
Some cities have extremely high fatality rates
Population growth leads to an increase in fatality rates
As cities grow and develop, lower speeds and road safety measures reduce fatalities
Source: Vanderschuren and Zuidgeest, Source: Vanderschuren, Forthcoming

5. Road Fatality Rates in South Africa
Road Death Rate 2010:
SA: 32.5 fatalities/ pop
Africa: 24 fatalities/ pop
Global: 17 fatalities/ pop
Specific areas have very high absolute fatality rates or very high fatality rates per pop
Unpacking the details is required
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

6. Road Fatality Rates in South Africa - Population
All SA provinces did have a population growth
Provinces with a Metropolitan Area have the largest decrease in fatalities
Source: Vanderschuren et al., 2017 – Based on RTMC Annual Report

7. Road Fatality Rates in South Africa – Car Ownership
All SA provinces did have a vehicle ownership growth
Provinces with a Metropolitan Area have the largest decrease in fatalities
Source: Vanderschuren et al., 2017 – Based on RTMC Annual Report

8. Road Fatality Rates in South Africa - GDP
As GDP grows, fatality rates increase. After a certain moment (breaking point), an increasing GDP develops a negative relationship with road fatalities
Between
Source: Kopits, Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on RTMC Annual Report

9. Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – NHTS 2013 and iPAS Data for the WC

10. Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures
Data for
A 100*100 metre ‘net’ was cast to find the Top-10 locations per district
Dots indicate a weighting of the number of fatalities
National roads still visible, but also other areas
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

11. Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures
Data for
A 100*100 metre ‘net’ was cast to find the Top-10 locations per district
Dots indicate a weighting of the number of fatalities
National roads still visible, but also other areas
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

12. Source: Vanderschuren et al
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

18. Identifying Feasible Road Safety Measures
Identify ‘Top Hazardous’ locations
Do in-depth analysis, include all records
Identify cost effective engineering, enforcement, education and EMS measures
IT can play an important role:
Speed over distance
Speed warning
Data collection and recording
Field Description
Value
Number of crashes
618
Number of fatal crashes 33
Number of fatalities 37
Number of injuries
943
Number of cyclist fatalities 1
Number of pedestrian fatalities 21
Number of pedestrian injuries 38
Percentage of fatal crashes during the day
40.5%
Percentage of fatal crashes during dry conditions
81.2%
Percentage of fatal crashes without any obstructions
51.5%
Percentage of fatal crashes on a straight
84.8%
Percentage of fatal crashes on part of the road with good road signage
Percentage of fatal crashes due to risky or bad driver behaviour
Percentage of speed during fatal crashes:
60km/h
80km/h
120km/h
unknown
3% 3% 57.6% 36.4%
Percentage of fatal crashes, due to other: drunk pedestrian + tyre burst
3% + 3%
Source: Vanderschuren et al., Forthcoming – Based on iPAS Data for the WC

19. Conclusions and Recommendations
Road fatalities remain a burden for countries
The total road fatality rates in South Africa decreased by 8.4% ( ). However, the decrease was not common for all provinces
Road fatalities have decreased while the population, GDP, GDP per capita and motorisation rates have increased
Best performing province still needs to find ways to reduce road fatalities
Great improvements in road safety in South Africa are required. Each province will require a tailor-made approach to improve its road safety levels. A pathway to achieve improvements would be to identify the top hazardous locations using GIS

20. Acknowledgements

21. Thank you for your attention