1. Energy Technology Policy Progress and Way Forward
ECCP II Conference
Brussels
24 October 2005
Fridtjof Unander
Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency

2. Presentation Overview
A look back on past trends
Looking ahead; scenarios to 2030 and 2050
Technology policy messages
Future work: G8 Plan of Action

3. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Looking back
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

4. Energy Demand and Savings since 1973 IEA -11
Hypothetical energy use, without savings
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
Without energy savings achieved since 1973 energy demand in 1998 would have been 50% higher

5. IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings
3,0%
Hypothetical Energy Use
Hypothetical Energy Use
without Energy Savings
without Energy Savings
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
2,5%
2,0%
1,5%
Average Annual % Growth
1,0%
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
0,5%
0,0%
1973 -
1990
1990 -
1998

6. IEA-11 Energy Use Impact of Energy Savings
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973 -
1990
1998
Average Annual % Growth
Energy
Savings
Actual
Energy Use
Hypothetical Energy Use
without Energy Savings
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
Rates of energy savings have slowed significantly after 1990, leading to rapid demand growth

7. Oil Crises & Climate Challenges Recent trends show steady increase
IEA CO2 Emissions
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
Recent trends show steady increase

8. IEA CO2 Emissions per GDP 1973 - 2001
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
Rate of decline has slowed since 1990

9. IEA-11 CO2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
This figure shows if the fuel mix (both for end-use and electricity generation) had not changed since 1973 and if there had been no energy savings emissions would have grown at about the same rate before and after 1990.
The impact of switching to lower carbon fuels was limited in both periods so it becomes clear that the main reason that emissions grew more rapidly after 1990 is the slowing rate of energy savings.

10. IEA-11 CO2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973 -
1990
1998
Average Annual % Growth
Less carbon
in fuel mix
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions
@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
This figure shows if the fuel mix (both for end-use and electricity generation) had not changed since 1973 and if there had been no energy savings emissions would have grown at about the same rate before and after 1990.
The impact of switching to lower carbon fuels was limited in both periods so it becomes clear that the main reason that emissions grew more rapidly after 1990 is the slowing rate of energy savings.

11. IEA-11 CO2 Emissions Impact of Fuel Mix & Energy Savings
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
1973 -
1990
1998
Average Annual % Growth
Less carbon
in fuel mix
Energy
Savings
Actual
Emissions
Hypothetical CO2 Emissions
@ Constant Fuel Mix and Efficiency
Oil Crises & Climate Challenges
OF ENERGY USE IN IEA COUNTRIES
This figure shows if the fuel mix (both for end-use and electricity generation) had not changed since 1973 and if there had been no energy savings emissions would have grown at about the same rate before and after 1990.
The impact of switching to lower carbon fuels was limited in both periods so it becomes clear that the main reason that emissions grew more rapidly after 1990 is the slowing rate of energy savings.
Slowing energy savings rates primary reason for accelerated growth in emissions after 1990

12. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Looking ahead
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

13. Rapid Growth in CO2 Emissions Expected Ahead
Source: WEO 2004
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s

14. Global CO2 Emissions in the Reference & Alternative Scenarios
CO2 emissions are 16% less in the Alternative scenario in 2030,
a reduction of about 6 Gt of CO2
Source: WEO 2004

15. Contributory Factors in CO2 Emission Reduction, 2002-2030
100%
20%
Increased renewables in power generation
49%
10% 8%
12%
21%
OECD
63% 1%
21%
15%
Transition economies
67% 7%
17% 4% 5%
Developing countries
80%
10%
Increased nuclear in power generation 5%
Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation 7%
Fuel switching in end uses
60%
58%
World
End-use efficiency gains
40%
20% 0%
Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20%

16. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
But this is not enough…
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

17. $50/tCO2: 2050 emissions would be 25% higher in absence of CCS
Example of IEA Technology Analysis : Role of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)
+ 25%
PROSPECTS FOR CO2 CAPTURE AND STORAGE
$50/tCO2: 2050 emissions would be 25% higher in absence of CCS

18. Long-term Technology Opportunities
No silver bullet, but some features are clear:
Accelerating energy efficiency improvements can make a difference in the short and long term
CCS is a crucial technology in the medium term
Renewables can steadily make an increasing impact and is key for the long-term sustainability
Need to pursue a “portfolio” approach in developing policies for technology deployment and R&D
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

19. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE
Future work
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

20. IEA Analysis of Long-term Technology Opportunities planned for 2006
Update of IEA World Energy Outlook Alternative Policy Scenario including analysis of new energy technologies that are expected to emerge from 2030 to 2050
New IEA publication “Global Energy Technology Perspectives” will address in detail how technologies may impact long-term energy markets (2050)
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

21. IEA Roles in the G8 Gleneagles Plan of Action
Dialogue partner
Advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies
Transform the way we use energy
Energy indicators
Buildings
Appliances
Surface transport
Industry
Powering a clean energy future
Cleaner fossil fuels
Carbon capture and storage
Develop renewable energy IEA Implementing Agreements
Electricity grids
Promoting Networks for Research and Development
Enhance the Implementing Agreements and reinforce links with developing countries and industry

22. Working with Others The IEA technology network National governments
Major developing countries
Industry
Other international organisations
Existing international initiatives