1. Marine Ecological Climate Services The feasible and the useful
Mark R Payne
@MarkPayneAtWork

2. ? ? ? ”Climate data is not climate information”
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Scientists
End-users ? ?
Climate Services ?

3. Prediction has a long history of failure in fisheries science
1 out of 49 recruitment-environment correlations ”survived” 10 years
15 out of 1250 fish stocks incorporate environmental information in tactical management
Myers, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 1998
Skern-Mauritzen et al, Fish Fish. 2015

4. Review of existing marine ecological forecast systems /climate services
Payne MR et al. (2017) Lessons from the First Generation of Marine Ecological Forecast Products. Front. Mar. Sci. 4:289. doi: /fmars

5. Key Lessons Find balance between what is feasible and what is useful
Co-production is absolutely essential

6. Understanding user needs
S2D
Tommasi et al 2017 Prog. Ocean.

7. The Blue Action Approach ”Throw the net widely…”

8. The Blue Action Approach Groups of end-users
Fishing industry
Scientists
Advice and management of fish stocks
Monitoring of fish stocks
Members of the public
Conservation organisations

9. Fishing Industry Pelagic Freezer Trawler Association
Timing of spawning of herring in the English Channel
When should we go fishing?
Combining industry-generated data with scientific surveys
2012
2013
December
January
”Normal”
”Late”

10. Fishing Industry Danish Pelagic Producers Organisation
Sandeel
Important feed stock for fish oil / fish meal
Highly variable resource
Timing of emergence from hibernation

11. Members of the Public Recreational Anglers: ”Fangstjournal”

12. Members of the Public Recreational Anglers: ”Fangstjournal”
Forecasting of Garfish Migration

13. Conservation Organisations Yellow-Eyed Penguins, New Zealand
Drives large ecotourism industry ~NZ$100 million
Endangered species ~4000 individuals
Survival linked to SST
Projected extinction by 2050
Exploring potential of using SST forecasts to prepare adaptation measures

14. Scientists Generation of Scientific Advice
Productivity predictions of North Sea herring
Incorporate directly into management system (deadline 15 Feb !!)
Productivity

15. Scientists Monitoring of Fish Populations
Distribution of Blue Whiting

16. Monitoring of blue whiting stock
Expanded distribution
Compacted distribution
Monitoring of blue whiting stock
2007
2013

17. Mechanisms underlying blue whiting distribution
Scientific Survey (Adults)
Larval Data

18. A new climate service! Forecast blue whiting distribution for March 2018

19. A new climate service! Forecast blue whiting distribution for March 2018

20. Mark R Payne mpay@aqua.dtu.dk @MarkPayneAtWork
Marine Ecological Climate Services
Have gathered a broad suite of end-users and potential forecast products
Now perform exploratory analyses – expect that some (many?) will fail
But we already have our first success!
Mark R Payne
@MarkPayneAtWork

21. Finally, looking towards the future…
Horizon BG The Future of Seas and Oceans Flagship Initiative [B] Observations and forecasting 23 Jan 2019
“….The inclusion of forecasting tools (for example to protect aquaculture installations or to inform fisheries decision making) shall be an advantage…”

22. Acknowledgements
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union 7th Framework Programme (FP ) under grant agreement number (NACLIM project) and Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No