1. The Model Web for Ecological Forecasting
Gary Geller
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA USA
22 September 2007
GEOSS Climate Change
Workshop
Boulder, CO

2. The Modeler’s Dilemma Its hard to make predictions,
particularly about the future
How can predictive capabilities be improved?

3. Improve existing models
Solutions
Improve existing models
Create new models
Increase model interoperability or or
There are two ways to increase accessibility. Training is one, and is excellent. But it is expensive and also not for everybody. Alternatively, TerraLook takes the approach of just making the data and tools easier to find and use.

4. Model Web Improve existing models Create new models
Solutions
Improve existing models
Create new models
Increase model interoperability or or
There are two ways to increase accessibility. Training is one, and is excellent. But it is expensive and also not for everybody. Alternatively, TerraLook takes the approach of just making the data and tools easier to find and use.
Model Web

5. Typical Questions for Ecological Forecasting
As the climate changes, can rare species X still exist within my park in 2057?
What are the implications of climate change for the frequency and intensity of fire within my park?
I need to restore part of my park: which management option is best?

6. Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (1/2)
Distributed network of interoperating models (and datasets and sensors)
Data format and terminology issues resolved
Scope includes physical, chemical, biological, and ecological processes

7. Model Web: 5-10+ Year Vision (2/2)
Grows organically within framework of broad goals and data exchange standards
Models and datasets maintained, operated, and served independently
Web access provided to researchers, managers, public…

8. Model and Data Space Model A Model B Dataset 1 Model C Portal
Model G
Model B
Dataset 1
Model C
Dataset 3
Portal
Model D
Dataset 2
Portal
Model F
Dataset 4
Model E

9. CC and Species Distribution
Global Climate
Model
As the climate changes, can rare species X
still exist within my park in 2057?
TOPS
Fire
Model
Landscape
Model
G E O S S
Regional
Climate Model
Niche
Model
Species
distribution

10. Initial Demonstration System
Global Climate
Dataset
GEOSS Biodiversity
IP3 project
TOPS
G E O S S
Regional
Climate Dataset
Niche
Model
Species
distribution

11. TOPS System Growth G E O S S Global Climate Dataset Fire Model
Regional
Climate Dataset
Niche
Model
Species
distribution

12. TOPS System Growth G E O S S Global Climate Dataset Fire risk,
Intensity, etc
Possible
Landscapes
TOPS
Fire
Model
Landscape
Model
G E O S S
Regional
Climate Dataset
Niche
Model
Species
distribution

13. Model and Data Space Model A Model B Dataset 1 Model C Portal
Model G
Model B
Dataset 1
Model C
Dataset 3
Portal
Model D
Dataset 2
Portal
Model F
Dataset 4
Model E

14. REAL Model and Data Space
Portal
Portal
Portal

15. Portal Concepts Anyone can set up a portal
Decide what questions to address
Decide what models to use
Understand topic
Provides an “answer”…
But is not an automated “Decision Support System”
A source of information

16. Next Steps Build demonstration system Continue to explore the concept
Talk more with GEOSS, modelers, users…
Address interoperability barriers