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The MTCR at 30: Launching and Sustaining the Regime

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Presentation on theme: "The MTCR at 30: Launching and Sustaining the Regime"— Presentation transcript:

1 The MTCR at 30: Launching and Sustaining the Regime
Richard Speier February 15, 2018

2 Background Nonproliferation in the 1970s – bilateral & industrial interests OSD enters NSDD 50 and 70 on SLVs & missiles Brazil

3 The technical focus of missile nonproliferation
"Squishy" list vs. Short List of Denials -- reactions 300 km/500 kg UAVs covered battles over SLVs 1985 "Projects of Concern" Argentina (2), Brazil (2), Egypt (1), India (4), Israel (2), ROK (1) 1985 "Possible" Projects of Concern: Egypt, Indonesia, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, Taiwan -- Scud not a western system

4 Technical developments
deals on joining the MTCR: Brazil, Argentina, So. Africa, Ukraine, ROK, India ad hoc missile definitions (e.g., UNSC 687) WMD-capability, "intended" test Broad acceptance of 300/500

5 Rules NSDD 70 language: 1983-1986 -- evolution of Category I rule
"prohibit", "deny", "stringent", "prevent...any" evolution of Category I rule Cat II rules -- popular innovations include "no-undercut", "catch-all"

6 Rules: Later developments
Membership expansion OSD weakened Diplomatic baubles, "regime tenders" "Rare" vs. Cat I UAV approvals (101 UAVs to 11 countries since 2006)

7 The future Focus on DPRK/Iran
What about Turkey, Syria, Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan, Taiwan, Japan/Australia? Increased missile defenses Candidates for controls -- penaids, hypersonics Policy-making outside vs inside the MTCR


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