1. Provincial Director of Agriculture
The impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: a view on the impact of recent natural shocks in the arid region
S.Sivakumar
Provincial Director of Agriculture
Northern Province

2. What is climate change?
Climate change is a long-term shift in weather conditions identified by changes in temperature, precipitation, winds, and other indicators.
Climate change can involve both changes in average conditions and changes in variability, including, for example, extreme events.
Factors that cause climate change can be divided into two categories ­ those related to natural processes and those related to human activity.

3. The impact of Climate Change on agriculture
Climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity
Climate change and agriculture are inter-related processes
Climate change is expected to influence
Crop and Livestock production
Hydrologic balances
Input supplies and other components of agricultural systems

4. Agro Ecological Zone in Northern Province
District
Agro Ecological Zone
D.S. Division
Jaffna
DL3
Chavakachcheri, Kopay, Sandilipay, Thellipalai, Uduvil, Karaveddy, Point Pedro, Chankanai, Nallur, Jaffna
DL4
Karainagar, Velanai, Kayts, Delft, Maruthankerny
Kilinochci
DL1e
Poonakary
Poonakary, Karaichchi, Kandavalai
Pachchilaipalli, Poonakary
Mullaitivu
Marithiyanpattu
DL1d
Velioya
DL1f
Thunukkai
Puthukudijirupu, Oddisuddan, Manthai East

5. Agro Ecological zone in Northern Province
District
Agro Ecological Zone
D.S. Division
Vavuniya
DL1b
Vavuniya town, Vavuniya south, Chettikulam
DL1e
Vavuniya north,
DL1f
Chettikulam,
Mannar
Nanaddan
DL3
Mannar town, Manthai west, Musali
DL4
Mannar town, Musali,
DL5
Musali (Marichchukaddi)

6. Recent natural shocks in Northern Province
Drought
Flood
Increase in intensity of rain fall
Decline in Rainy days
Seasonal shifting
Increase of RH
Increase of night temperature
Increase in wind velocity
Depression
Cyclone
Extreme wind (Mini-storm)

7. Average monthly Rainfall 2003 -2007

8. Average monthly Rainfall 2008 -2013

10. District wise Monthly Rain Fall (Maha 2012 /13 & Maha 2013/14)
Paddy land – ac
High land – ac
Farm families
Monthly Rain Fall(mm) (Maha 2012/13)
Number of Rainy Days)(Maha 2012/13)
Monthly Rain Fall(mm) (Maha 2013/14)
Number of Rainy Days)(Maha 2013/14)

11. District wise Paddy drought damage in Maha 2013/1411
Production loss – 19413mt
Production loss – mt
Paddy land – ac
High land – ac
Farm families
Production loss – mt
Production loss – mt
Target extent (ha)
Cultivated Extent (ha)
Damage Extent (ha) {100 % damage}
Production loss – 9077 mt

12. Crop Damage by Flood Maha 2011/12 Maha 2012/13 Crop Target extent (ha)
Cultivated Extent (ha)
Damaged Extent (ha)
Expected production (mt)
Production Received (mt)
Production loss (mt)
Paddy
84539
77628
9663
308278
185761
33744
OFC
12916
19455 41
33970
410
Vegetable
5156
3628
46903
Fruits
3865
64512
Maha 2012/13
Crop
Target extent (ha)
Cultivated Extent (ha)
Damaged Extent (ha)
Expected production (mt)
Production Received (mt)
Production loss (mt)
Paddy
89810
86243
23276
297566
145354
72376
OFC
23929
20325
2109
24187
20544
7806
Vegetable
6337
5169
133
82098
66976
1856
Fruits
4386 34
43504
678

13. Crop Damage by Drought Yala 2012 Maha 2013/14 Crop Target extent (ha)
Cultivated Extent (ha)
Damaged Extent (ha)
Expected production (mt)
Production Received (mt)
Production loss (mt)
Paddy
13934
1111
118628
49847
8643
OFC
6913
6385
355
52862
48827
1407
Vegetable
4186.5
3249 41
71011
55109
1088
Fruits
4461 38
45035
623
Maha 2013/14
Crop
Target extent (ha)
Cultivated Extent (ha)
Damaged Extent (ha)
Expected production (mt)
Production Received (mt)
Production loss (mt)
Paddy
91540
64689
15491
325709
138016
91959
OFC
19937
13091
387
18104
14433
3671
Vegetable
6648
3289 7
110782
54808
184
Fruits
7127
4790
52846
Total
125252
85859
15885
454595
260103
95814

17. Seasonal Shifting 1st Inter monsoon - Mar – April to April- May
South West Monsoon - May- Sep to June-Oct
2nd Inter Monsoon Oct- Dec to Nov- Dec15
North East Monsoon - Dec- Feb to Dec 20 - Mar 15

18. Problems Faced in crop cultivation by changing rainfall pattern
Land preparation
Date of paddy sowing
Selection of varieties
Management of Pest and disease
Application of chemical & fertilizers
Maintenance of home gardens
Physiological disorder

19. Damaged of mid season crops in Paddy Land
Uneven rainfall
Mid season crops- Gingelly, Ground nut & Pulses affected
Increase of Uncultivable

20. Average monthly Temperature 2003 , 2008 and 2013
Rainfall (mm)
months

21. Increase of Temperature & RH induce
Increase in Vector population
Transmitting diseases
Eg. White fly and Leaf Hoppers – Virus and Phytoplasma
Increase in pest population
Mealy bug.... All crops
White fly Chilli , Brinjal , Guava and Pulses
Jassids Brinjal, Tomato, Okra, Cucubits
Thrips Chilli, Roses
Physiological disorder

22. Nisha cyclone damages in 2008

23. Thank you